Elections have consequences.  On the same day the U.S. economy reports astoundingly successful jobs growth of 266,000 jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent; the Canadian state economic minister reports surprisingly terrible jobs losses of 72,200 jobs and a jump in unemployment from 5.5 to 5.9 percent.
The Canadian economy is roughly one-tenth the size of the U.S. So in equivalent terms the results from Canada reflect a comparative loss of 720,000 jobs on the same day the U.S. revises all figures upward to over 300,000 gains.  A stunning economic contrast:

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Canadian job market lost a surprise 71,200 net positions in November while the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%, the highest in more than a year, data showed on Friday, as analysts said a repeat of the weak numbers could force the Bank of Canada to rethink its monetary policy.
Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a gain of 10,000 jobs and had predicted the unemployment rate would hold steady at 5.5%. […] November’s numbers followed a weak report in October, when the labor market unexpectedly shed jobs despite a likely boost from hiring related to the federal election.

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business news to discuss the November jobs report, economic growth and the China trade discussions.
Kudlow highlights the primary point that President Trump has reestablished Main Street USA as the primary focus of policy.  U.S. companies invested in the U.S. economy are doing exceptionally well and receiving the majority benefit.  U.S. multinational companies who are invested overseas are not benefiting as much.  Wall St -vs- Main Street.

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Director Kudlow is correct, if the House can ratify the USMCA trade deal, North America will see a massive influx of investment.
In essence Titan Trump is winning the economic battle by: (a) repatriating wealth (trade policy); (b) blocking exfiltration (main street policy); (c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and (d) dismantling the post WWII Marshal plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).
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“These are the best jobs numbers of our lives”…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the jobs number for November and the results are astoundingly excellent.  November jobs gains 266,000; the year-over-year wage growth is 3.1% with non-supervisory wages growing double the rate of supervisory wages. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 3.5 percent.

Additionally, September was revised up by 13,000 from +180,000 to +193,000, and the change for October was revised up by 28,000 from +128,000 to +156,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 41,000 more than previously reported.  [Full BLS Report Here]
Also in November, 1.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force. This is a reduction of 432,000 from a year earlier. Those additional jobs are not counted in any labor report because those returning workers were previously not looking for employment; they came off the sidelines and entered the workforce.  AMERICA IS WORKING AGAIN !
The pundits are shocked, s.h.o.c.k.e.d!
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As the House impeachment of President Donald Trump becomes more of a forgone political conclusion it’s worth considering what terms and conditions Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will extract in order to preserve a Trump Presidency.
Most political pundits will not correctly outline the status of the possibilities, because most political pundits are willfully blind to the structure of the McConnell Senate.
First, McConnell doesn’t care about holding a majority position in the Senate.  Whether he is a majority leader or a minority leader doesn’t matter to McConnell. In fact McConnell’s political skill-set does better in the minority than the majority.
The preferred political position for Mitch McConnell is where he has between 45 and 49 republican Senators, and the Democrats hold the Majority with around 55.  Of course with Reid’s retirement, this would now be with Majority leader Chuck Schumer holding office.
Why does McConnell prefer the minority position?
The answer is where you have had to actually follow Mitch McConnell closely to see how he works.   When the Majority has around 52 to 55 seats, they need McConnell to give them 8 to 9 votes to overcome the three-fifths (60 vote) threshold for their legislative needs.  It is in the process of trade and payment for those 8 to 9 votes where McConnell makes more money, and holds more power, than as a sitting Majority Leader.
The 60 vote threshold, and McConnell’s incredible skillset in the minority, is where he shines.  Each of the needed votes to achieve sixty is worth buckets of indulgence to the minority leader.  This is why McConnell never changed the Senate rules for legislative passage.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on CNBC earlier today to discuss the status of U.S-China trade discussions, the latest issues with tariffs on French goods, and the bigger picture issues within the EU that we previously discussed.
Ross highlights the additional tariffs on China scheduled for December 15th are currently still planned to take effect unless something substantial changes in the position of China.  Additionally, and interestingly on the French and EU tariffs, Secretary Ross reminds the financial pundits of the $7.5 billion WTO authorized award against the EU that would be in addition to the $2.4 billion in tariffs now scheduled for French products.

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Pay attention to what Ross says in that interview; the administration is being remarkably open and consistent.  Given the adversarial position exhibited by French President Emmanuel Macron today; and against the backdrop of continual EU intransigence on trade reciprocity; I suspect once the USMCA is passed we are going to see a *severe* shift in tone within the U.S. trade position toward both China and the EU.
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The synergy, flow and timing of the U.S. trade and economic team is just a marvel; a brilliant assembly of perfectly in-tune economic and trade professionals.
As President Trump touched down in the U.K. to attend the two-day NATO summit, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announces the completion of a Section 301 review of France’s Digital Services Tax (DST).
After determining the value of the French tax on U.S. internet services at $2.4 billion; Lighthizer announces a 100%  countervailing duty on a carefully selected $2.4 billion in French imports.
Obviously the agenda for the bilateral NATO meeting between U.S. President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron just changed.  LOL, you have to love Team USA.
Oh, but wait, wait… it gets better….
We have to remember, THIS $2.4 billion U.S. tariff against France would be on top of the $7.5 billion (per year) countervailing duty recently won from the Airbus subsidy case in the WTO…. and by law France cannot retaliate.
Oh my, President Trump strolls into the NATO bilat with Macron while holding a $10 billion legally justified countervailing tariff position.  How’d ya like ‘dem grapes?
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade “negotiations” :::nudge-nudge, wink-wink::: and highlights the ‘phase-1’ fulcrum is China committing to the $50b Ag purchase without condition.  Secretary Ross also notes the December 15th date just happens to be “good timing” if the U.S. team is “forced” to put more tariffs on China.  LOL.
Additionally, Mr. Ross notes the challenge of a strong dollar as it relates to allied nations who are stimulating their own economy by sending us even cheaper stuff, ie. Brazil.

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Whenever we discover a financial analyst who understands the new dimension in U.S. economics (rare) it is worth revisiting them from time-to-time. Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian was one of the first MSM pundits to: (a) accept the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street via de-globalization; and (b) begin to explain why that matters in the era of Trump.
El-Erian appeared this morning on Fox Business News to discuss President Trump’s re-imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Additionally El-Erian discusses trade tensions, market outlooks, consumer strength, recession fears, and the drag the rest of the world is placing in the U.S. economy.

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The U.S. economy is strong; all the fundamentals are solid. However, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are more exposed. There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile… they need “structural reform.”  The multinationals are holding cash, waiting to see how it plays out.
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Given the background activity last week between USTR Robert Lighthizer and Mexican Trade Minister Jesus Seade, and their agreement to set up a trilateral trade and labor dispute panel, President Trump now puts Speaker Pelosi in “check”….

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Having lost her labor defense shield (well played by Lighthizer/Seade), Pelosi is now either going to stand her party against the majority of Americans as President Trump pummels them over it… Or she puts the USMCA up for ratification (Trump wins) and it looks like she takes a knee….  Well played by President Trump.
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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones…. Keep in mind as you review these numbers – U.S. consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total U.S. GDP.  The sales numbers from Thanksgiving and Black Friday are exceptionally strong, showing confidence by consumers this holiday season.  This is not the ‘recession’ we were promised by pundits.
Continued strong wage growth amid all sectors of the U.S. workforce, particularly in non-supervisory positions, combined with low inflation and low energy costs, means consumers are spending out of ‘household cash flow’ which is considerably higher.

(Via CNBC) […] Spending online on Black Friday, as of 9 pm ET, hit a new record of $5.4 billion, up 22.3% from a year ago, according to data pulled from Adobe Analytics, which measures transactions from 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.
This comes as foot traffic appeared to be lighter at shopping malls across the country on Friday, a day that traditionally has been reserved for people to line up outside of big-box retailers and department stores to score doorbuster deals.
Total spending online on Black Friday is still forecast by Adobe to hit $7.6 billion, which would make the day the second-biggest online sales day ever, after Cyber Monday in 2018, where $7.9 billion was spent.

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