The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has released the jobs and employment data for April [SEE HERE].  Within the data we see 177,000 jobs were gained, beating expectations of 133,000.   The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%.

Federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April [BLS, Table B-1]  Health care added 51,000 jobs: consisting of hospitals (+22,000) and ambulatory health care services (+21,000). Transportation and warehousing increased by 29,000 jobs in April: with warehousing and storage (+10,000), couriers and messengers (+8,000), and air transportation (+3,000).

.@StephenMoore reacts to the jobs report: “436,000 increase in the number of people who are employed. So, this is an amazing report… The labor force participation rate rose. So, this is a very strong number.” pic.twitter.com/CuAPwD52Yn

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 2, 2025

(Via Wall Street Journal) – The U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a steady clip in April, although the pace of gains slowed slightly during a month that saw changing tariff announcements and market turmoil.

The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported Friday, above the gain of 133,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see.

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The move and shift in National Security Advisor responsibility makes sense on a couple of different levels.  First the U.N position carries “prestige” softening the ouster of Waltz; second, with the foreign policy run from the White House, a dual Secretary of State/NSA role works under currently assigned responsibilities.

[SOURCE]

The combined nature of the SoS and NSA position makes good interim sense; both would have essentially been traveling the same itinerary.  However, putting the former head of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence into place as National Security Advisor, well, that’s a level of trust that has never before been witnessed.

Mike Waltz becomes the Nikki Haley of term-2.

Optimal solution.

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Republican senators Rand Paul, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski all voted in support of removing President Trump’s ability to impose tariffs under national security grounds.  However, the overall vote failed in the Senate 49-49.

The vote was mostly symbolic for the upper chamber as the House previously approved a rule to block any effort to restrict President Trump’s trade authority, and the White House would obviously veto any bill that might pass.  However, the vote does showcase the Republicans who are in support of multinational corporations outsourcing jobs and manufacturing.

The bill was originally created by Republican Senator Rand Paul and Democrat Senator Ron Wyden.  The intransigent neocon wing of the GOPe, those who take funds from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (aka Decepticons) also supported the bill, but given the certainty of Trump’s veto, needed to retain their masks.

WASHINGTON – […] The legislation, designed to end the national emergency Trump used to impose his now-paused “Liberation Day” tariffs, failed by a vote of 49 to 49 despite three Republicans joining all Democrats. {Full Story}

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Will U.S. taxpayers ever see a dime repaid? Probably not, because the proceeds will likely end up in the pockets of the professional political class; however, the concept is a good idea in principle.  It is more than likely Zelenskyy has sold his “minerals” to several countries in his perpetual tin cup tour. The ‘investment fund’ aspect is just another way to transfer proceeds into the bank accounts of U.S. Senators.

The previously called “minerals deal” is now essentially a fund created between the USA and Ukraine where proceeds from exploiting Ukraine natural resources will be used to rebuild the country and repay the USA for prior financial support.  According to ABC News, “Both sides were ready to sign the agreement on critical minerals and other resources earlier, but the U.S. said it wanted the main minerals resources agreement signed and the creation of an investment fund document signed at the same time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and a source in the Ukrainian president’s office said.”

Thanks to @POTUS @realDonaldTrump’s tireless efforts to secure a lasting peace, I am glad to announce the signing of today’s historic economic partnership agreement between the United States and Ukraine establishing the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund to help… pic.twitter.com/N1jPa35DYh

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 30, 2025

WASHINGTON — On April 30, the United States and Ukraine signed an agreement to establish the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. In recognition of the significant financial and material support that the people of the United States have provided to the defense of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, this economic partnership positions our two countries to work collaboratively and invest together to ensure that our mutual assets, talents, and capabilities can accelerate Ukraine’s economic recovery.

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This next story is a natural outcome in the flow of goods. Remember, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the first quarter is a hindsight review. Meaning the information released today was based on activity in January, February and March 2025.

U.S. companies surged the purchasing of import goods, mostly from China, by more than 50% in the first quarter. They were/are building inventory. So, what happens in China starting in April?

Hong Kong, CNN – China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, as steep US tariffs took a heavy toll on the manufacturing sector, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to roll out fresh economic stimulus.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April, the weakest reading since December 2023, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement that the contraction in factory activity was due to “sharp changes in the external environment and other factors.” (read more)

The U.S. has front-loaded the inventory. So, orders to China drop now. It’s a natural outcome.

We have purchased goods in advance. So, orders to China drop. As a result, the cargo shipments from China to the USA drop in April, May and June.

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As we saw previously in Term-1, President Trump has again divided and assigned trade negotiation responsibility to key cabinet members.  In this interview with CNN National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett smiles and walks effortlessly through the narrative engineering attempt by CNN pundit Kassie Hunt.

This is a must watch interview if you are following the details of the current global trade renegotiation.

Hassett outlines the current status of trade negotiations with some of the biggest trade partners in the world.  India and Southeast Asia are being handled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.  Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is in control of the section 232 (national security) tariffs, and USTR Jamison Greer has 19 current Free Trade Agreements outlined with various partners all willing to accept the reciprocity agreement.  WATCH:

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DAY 100

Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Unleashing Economic Greatness.

Inbound Investments So Far:

Project Stargate, led by Japan-based Softbank and U.S.-based OpenAI and Oracle, announced a $500 billion private investment in U.S.-based artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Apple announced a $500 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing and training.

NVIDIA, a global chipmaking giant, announced it will invest $500 billion in U.S.-based AI infrastructure over the next four years amid its pledge to manufacture AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S. for the first time.

IBM announced a $150 billion investment over the next five years in its U.S.-based growth and manufacturing operations.

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Only President Trump could get the Canadians to vote for an exit to the USMCA, and he did it brilliantly.

To understand President Trump’s position on Canada, you have to go back to the 2016 election and President Trump’s position on the NAFTA renegotiation.  If you did not follow the subsequent USMCA process, this might be the ah-ha moment you need to understand Trump’s strategy.

During the 2016 election President Trump repeatedly said he wanted to renegotiate NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement.  Both Canada and Mexico were reluctant to open the trade agreement to revision, but ultimately President Trump had the authority and support from an election victory to do exactly that.

In order to understand the issue, you must remember President Trump, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer each agreed the NAFTA agreement was fraught with problems and was best addressed by scrapping it and creating two seperate bilateral trade agreements. One between the USA and Mexico, and one between the USA and Canada.

In the decades that preceded the 2017 push to redo the trade pact, Canada had restructured their economy to: (1) align with progressive climate change; and (2) take advantage of the NAFTA loophole.  The Canadian government did not want to reengage in a new trade agreement.

Canada has deindustrialized much of their manufacturing base to support the ‘environmental’ aspirations of their progressive politicians.  Instead, Canada became an importer of component goods where companies then assembled those imports into finished products to enter the U.S. market without tariffs.  Working with Chinese manufacturing companies, Canada exploited the NAFTA loophole.

Justin Trudeau was strongly against renegotiating NAFTA, and stated he and Chrystia Freeland would not support reopening the trade agreement.  President Trump didn’t care about the position of Canada and was going forward.  Trudeau said he would not support it.  Trump focused on the first bilateral trade agreement with Mexico.

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov appears on CBS Face the Nation to discuss the position of the Russian Federation toward the ‘ceasefire’ in Ukraine.  The interview took place on Thursday April 24th and was broadcast today.

This interview also takes place one day before President Trump Special Envoy Steve Witkoff flew to Moscow for his fourth meeting with Putin to discuss the settlement of the war in Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, the conversation between Witkoff and President Putin lasted about three hours.

Following the last meeting between President Putin and Ambassador Witkoff, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated President Putin is willing to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy without any preconditions. According to Peskov, the statement was made at a meeting with Trump’s special representative, Steve Witkoff. “Putin at the meeting with Witkoff confirmed Russia’s readiness for negotiations with Kyiv without any preconditions” according to the Kremlin.

In this interview, Sergey Lavrov dismisses the narrative building, maintains respect for the integrity of private negotiations, and outlines an optimistic view the terms of a ceasefire can be agreed between President Trump and President Putin.  It is the CIA and their operative Volodymyr Zelenskyy that represent the challenge that might cause President Trump and Marco Rubio to walk away.  WATCH: 

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We go now to Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov. Good morning, Minister Lavrov, I want to ask you about what happened in Kyiv. There was a large Russian attack on that capital city about one o’clock in the morning. President Trump has said publicly, the Russian strikes are not necessary and very bad timing. “Vladimir, STOP!” was his quote. What made it worth killing civilians when Ukraine says it’s ready for a ceasefire?

FOREIGN MINISTER SERGEY LAVROV: We only target military goals or civilian sites used by the military. President Putin expressed this for so many times, and this is not different this time as well. We never consciously target civilian sites unlike- unlike the Zelensky regime.

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[AUTHORS NOTE: Having attended the ASEAN conference to make contacts, after a brief respite at home I spent the past several weeks traveling Southeast Asia to research the likely impact from Trump’s tariff and global trade reset. Visits included manufacturing and distribution facilities in the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and South Korea. What I will share with you in the next few months is an overview from direct first-hand discussions, contrast against the MSM financial media outline.]

The predictable doomsday Wall Street Journal narrative includes a forecast for a massive drop in exports from China as shipping conglomerates begin to outline a drop in trans-pacific sea cargo and container carriers.

What I would say to concerned Americans is to filter out the political narrative and remind yourself of the expanded footprint throughout SE Asia that Beijing has already established.  Chinese companies, many of them subsidized by the CCP, are pre-positioned to begin transnational shipping. I have witnessed it first-hand.  However, here’s the WSJ narrative as it begins.

WSJ – The number of ships sailing from China to the U.S. laden with clothes, electronics, furniture and other goods is plunging, as an accelerating number of cargoes are canceled.

The scrapped sailings come after the Trump administration ratcheted up tariffs on China while giving a three-month reprieve on punitive levies for much of the rest of the world.

At the Port of Los Angeles, one of America’s biggest gateways for imports from China, executive director Gene Seroka told port officials Thursday that he expects a 35% drop in import volumes in two weeks “as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers has ceased.”

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