For those waiting patiently for the USMCA termination announcement, this is a potential indication and/or signal of pendency.

When President Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer send the official notification, a six-month countdown clock begins running.  As of right now there are no official statements that indicate the likely triggering, it’s a guess.  However, there are datapoints aligning in that direction.

[SOURCE]

No one outside our assembly has contemplated the termination of the USMCA (CUSMA) or what would occur in the aftermath; however, the Bank of Canada has gamed out the financial consequences, briefly in their forward guidance. The ramifications are significant, perhaps more significant than any other global trade announcement.

[…] “it more likely that a new shock or a combination of shocks could cause several vulnerabilities to crystalize at once. If this were to happen, these vulnerabilities could interact and reinforce each other. 

A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales. Funding markets could come under pressure, and stress could spread more broadly.” [SOURCE]

I suggest we keep a close eye on all U.S-Mexico discussions, as well as geopolitical leverage points that might surface in the U.S-Mexico relationship. My best guess is that once the U.S. and Mexico come to renewed terms on the ‘USMCA’ as a potential bilateral free trade agreement, that will be the moment when the planets are aligned for the termination notification.

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After meeting with travel executives in the oval office, President Trump took questions from the assembled press pool.  The media questions begin at 21:00 of the video below.  A question about Canada trade negotiations is at 24:00 of the video. WATCH:

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A rather remarkable statement from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick puts the Canadian government on notice.  If Lutnick is accurately outlining what took place, there’s no way Trump is going to give them a trade deal.

When he is questioned about the U.S-Canada trade agreement collapse, Secretary Lutnick quotes the Canadian govt officials.  “I said to him, are you trying to blow this up? and he said, and I quote, “I’m not allowed to say that.“” Lutnick then encapsulates what that response meant.

“They decided for political reasons, domestically, domestic Canada, they’d rather fight with Donald Trump; even if it’s bad for the economy of Canada, for their political ambition to get a certain election,” Lutnick noted.  He continued, “now remember, Quebec has the sovereign party was in the lead, so that’s why they came up with this French nonsense. You think the American side talked about how people speak in Quebec? We have a deal with France, we have a deal with Italy, we have a deal with Germany, we don’t care about their language; none of that was true.”   WATCH (prompted):

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Canada is drowning in the Sea of China. The USA is the rescue swimmer.  When we reach the victim they thrash, try to climb on our back and pull us under. Survival for both now requires us to punch them in the face, back away and ask them if they prefer to drown. If not, listen to instructions.

The USMCA or CUSMA needs to be terminated!  That’s the punch in the nose.

Then a bilateral trade agreement can be negotiated.  That’s the swimmer giving the victim instructions.

If Canada chooses to drown in the Sea of China, so be it.

Then we build a regulatory wall against all Canadian products, banning the entry of Chinese component parts in EVERYTHING!

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Within 12 hours of the Friday announcement that Canada had walked away from trade discussions with the U.S, we were able to piece together what the four points were.  Several people disagreed and claimed something else was involved.  Today, Prime Minister Mark Carney affirmed specifically the accuracy of those four points.

While Prime Minister Carney used his verbose gaslighting to describe them, you can listen for yourself.  It boiled down to four issues: [1] U.S. streaming services writing code for “search engines” in the French language (cultural issue). [2] The U.S. having a right to reject a trade deal made by Canada with a non-market economy, ie. CHINA. [3] Removal of tariffs on Canadian assembled heavy trucks, semi-trucks and industrial trucks (not in the auto sector). [4] Canada demanding 5% of gross revenues from U.S. tech platforms, with an attitude that U.S. controls North American trade.

You can listen to his own words describing these issues.  WATCH:

The United States must, as a matter of U.S. national security and survival, immediately cut all trade ties with Canada completely.  I’ll explain why this is so critical and important.

The most appropriate metaphor is the drowning victim (Canada) with an intentionally placed anchor on its foot (China), now becoming a threat to the rescue swimmer (USA).   If we don’t cut ties, we risk our own livelihood.

Here’s the four counterpoints:

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For about a year CTH has predicted Chinese auto manufacturers BYD and GEELY would take over shuttered auto plants in Canada.  Specifically, six months ago, against the backdrop warning of Stellantis, Toyota and Honda telling the Canadian government that without the USMCA they would shift auto production to the USA, CTH predicted BYD and GEELY would make moves on those closed facilities.

The move by China is easy to predict.  Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened the door to Chinese EVs.  It would be in Beijing’s best interest to retool and take control of closed plants to begin mass production in North America.

Chinese EV manufacturing in Canada serves two purposes.

First, they would not be limited in production to the cars that remain in Canada as part of the agreement.  Factually, China would use their Canadian footprint as an export hub into Europe and save money on current distribution.   Remember, Europe is losing their auto manufacturing base to China and Germany is laying off 100,000+ auto workers.

Second, the appearance of Chinese auto manufacturing in North America would put pressure on the United States to permit their cheap EVs to enter the market.

Today Bloomberg is reporting exactly what we predicted.  Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dream) is asking local officials about the currently idled Stellantis auto plant.  Things are following a very predictable timeline.

BLOOMBERG – Chinese carmaker BYD Co. inquired about taking over an idled Stellantis NV plant in the Toronto suburbs, according to a local politician, signaling possible global interest in Canadian auto hubs in the midst of a trade battle with the US.

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CTH continues to get considerable questioning about how the U.S-Canada fracture will take place, what it means for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and when the issues can be expected to apex.  It appears that part of the reasoned disconnect people are struggling with is directly related to the messaging from the Canadian government in combination with the financial media.

In short, despite the increased trade friction, a decoupling of the U.S. economy from the Canadian economy just seems unfathomable to most observers. The main question we receive is ‘when will things happen‘?  Meaning when will financial markets react?  The most obvious answer to that question is, when the USA announces the termination of the USMCA (CUSMA) trilateral.

If you hold the opinion that all of these trade friction points will be resolved within the margins of the USMCA, then it is correct to predict that no significant material impact will be felt north of the border.  If, however, you hold the opinion that the USMCA will be terminated because the core of the issues between the two countries are irreconcilable, then the material impact will come as soon as that announcement is made.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, the only Canadian government official to attend President Trump’s inauguration, appears on Fox Business. Like all other Canadian officials, she cannot contemplate the elimination of CUSMA/NAFTA.  Such an outcome is simply beyond her comprehension. WATCH:

In previous interviews and broadcasts, Mrs Smith claimed if Canada was to introduce an export tax the USA would respond accordingly.  This is not accurate.  The U.S. has no mechanism to place a tax on exports.

Additionally, inside Canada the structure is provincial.  That means each province taxes each other province for goods and services.  In the USA we have state sales taxes, but those taxes are applied across all goods sold to/inside an individual state.  Ex. Florida does not tax Texas.  Florida has one sales tax for all goods regardless of their origin.

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I think we have finally figured out President Trump’s long-term strategy here.  Essentially, we have been flummoxed over why President Trump has not yet triggered the 6-month USMCA (CUSMA) termination notice yet.  However, he appears to be intentionally drawing this out.

For the deniers, I simply request you to think about it in very simple and logical terms.  Do you really foresee any possibility of President Trump or USTR Jamieson Greer renegotiating a USMCA agreement amid the divide Canada is creating?  There’s no way terms will ever be discussed.

Therefore, with an all-in perspective on termination, the moves President Trump is making now are all just to prolong economic pain and block investment while retaining the termination notice as the hidden ace.  [VIA TRUTH SOCIAL]

[Source]

Why this approach?

Well, right now American communists and those with TPS status changes are fleeing to Canada; a human sedimentation tank.

Bring back the corporations who set up shop in Canada and swap them for outbound, dependent leftists.

Alberta will never secede from Canada because Premier Danielle Smith is a gaslighting fibber and structurally in alignment with Mark Carney. Additionally, if you look up “battered conservative syndrome” in the geopolitical library you will note that Alberta is the birthplace of the mindset, and Pierre Poilievre is their mascot.  Alberta will never leave Canada.

Those who understand the pretense of the UniParty in the United States, likely understand that in Canada the pretending is exponentially more entrenched.

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President Trump holds a press availability in the oval office for a signing ceremony changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.  Additionally, President Trump answered questions about the U.S relationship with the Canadian government.

Listen to the presser and you fully understand President Trump’s position on U.S-Canadian trade and the trilateral NAFTA/USMCA agreement.  Trump noted he is now finishing the North American trade and economic policy that he began in his first term.  There is not a single moment of hesitation in his responses.  WATCH:

President Trump also fielded questions about the Ukraine war and the status of relationship with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin.  President Trump succinctly said, “he’s not going to attack NATO.”

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As we have all learned in the past week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney manufactured an oppositional narrative to the U.S-Canada trade deal in order to say no. Today, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave specifics about the last-minute Canadian demands that blew up the trade agreement.

Secretary Lutnick has a long-standing relationship with Prime Minister Mark Carney and during the negotiations he talked at length to both Canada’s primary trade negotiator, Dominick LeBlanc as well as Prime Minister Carney. Lutnick notes the issues Carney claimed were too much for Canada to agree to were entirely manufactured at the last minute in order to say no.

At no point was the French language ever mentioned in the trade discussions. At no time was the trade sector that involves U.S. tariffs against heavy-duty trucks and semi tractor trailers ever mentioned, until Friday at 4:00pm when Carney brought up that issue. The agreement was outlined and agreed by all parties prior to Friday; Howard Lutnick speaking twice to Prime Minister Carney personally. There was no issue until the last minute when Canada chose to make issues.

As Lutnick notes, this is all political on the Canadian side. Prime Minister Carney needed domestic political leverage to manipulate his constituents. This is worth watching:

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The full presser is below that covers other topics including the Kennedy Center.  In the longer video the Canada issue comes up at 18:38.

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