Hilarious Bloomberg interview with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.  The topics are European trade and politics combined with the overlay of Canadian trade and politics.  The Bloomberg panelists question Lutnick about the similar “feelings” of the Europeans and Canadians, as it pertains to the outcome of trade discussions.  It’s the feelings that make things difficult to negotiate.

Secretary Lutnick doesn’t dismiss the narrative but deconstructs the substance of the topic brilliantly.  Lutnick notes the ridiculous nature of the Canadian trade position and their decision to go running to China because their feelings are hurt.  Lutnick then affirms the USMCA is going to be dissolved mid-summer and fall of this year.

As we noted at the end of last year, splitting the USMCA into two bilateral trade deals, one for Mexico and one for Canada, will be one of the most interesting and long-term economically significant moves in U.S. trade history.  It is going to be a lot of fun to watch these negotiations, and the pre-positioning gives us a preview of what is to come.

Mexico is doing everything almost perfectly in preparation for their bilateral deal.  Canada is doing exactly the opposite and positioning themselves for the worst possible outcome of a deal with the USA.  The disparity in approaches is so different, even now it is remarkable to watch. PROMPTED:

(VIA BLOOMBERG) – […] Canada has “the second-best deal in the world” with its access to the US market, Lutnick said, behind only Mexico. The Commerce chief also indicated that Canada’s tilt toward China could become an issue in talks over revamping the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement known as USMCA.

If Ottawa opts to import Chinese electric vehicles and other trade-strengthening steps with Beijing, “do you think the president of the United States is going to say you should keep having the second-best deal in the world” during USMCA talks, Lutnick questioned.

[…] Canada’s Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne told reporters in Quebec City that every Group of Seven nation is charting its own strategic path forward with China, and Canada is no different. 

“We’ll continue to work hand in hand with our US partner,” he said. “At the same time, I think Canadians have understood by now that diversification is key. We need to be more resilient.” 

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said separately Thursday that her nation will work to maintain the USMCA trade deal despite recent disputes between Carney and US President Donald Trump. Speaking at her daily press briefing, she also said she would try to talk with Carney.

Next week, Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard will travel to Washington for trade talks, Sheinbaum also said, speaking in Puebla, Mexico. (read full article)

Having travelled to regions of the world in discussions with people who factually determine economic outcomes, it is clear that every single policy shift undertaken by the Canadian government of Mark Carney is exactly the opposite of what is needed.  In the next 24 months, the lifestyle of every Canadian will forever change.

President Trump is reestablishing an entirely new economic, trade and finance system. The era of the Marshal Plan is over; it has been factually deconstructed in the past 12 months.

Canadians and Europeans are desperately trying to offset the ramifications, hold on to their economic benefits and find a new mechanism to afford the domestic indulgences now eliminated by President Trump and the absence of money.

The EU and Canada have chased ‘climate change’ and ‘green energy’ schemes into a dead end of economic crisis. German Chancellor Merz has admitted the problem to the world.  The direct and collateral damage is generational, and only just now beginning to surface.

When combined with their intransigent resistance to adapt to President Trump’s global economic and trade reset, core issue “reciprocity”, this reality takes both economies down a path that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Choosing to embrace China in lieu of modifying bilateral trade agreements with the USA is a short-sighted fool’s errand. Unfortunately, with political calculations each entity, Canada and/or the EU collective, are pandering to their “feeling” base out of an unwillingness to change trade behavior as demanded by Trump.

From Ottawa to London, to Paris, Berlin and Brussels the geopolitical landscape is changing permanently as President Donald Trump resets their global trade relationship to the United States.

President Trump is leveraging the largest consumer market in the world to the benefit of the customer; that’s America.  Trump’s direct and specific intent is transactional, to rebuild an industrial and self-sufficient nation that is the envy of the world.

For several generations, Canada and the EU have exploited their biggest customer and taken the U.S. for granted. Both the EU and Canadian economies are stalled and soon to be shrinking.  The USA economy will easily grow above 5% GDP and Mexico is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of their proactive positioning.

It’s not about ‘feelings’ it is just the cold reality of the economics.