CTH continues to get considerable questioning about how the U.S-Canada fracture will take place, what it means for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and when the issues can be expected to apex.  It appears that part of the reasoned disconnect people are struggling with is directly related to the messaging from the Canadian government in combination with the financial media.

In short, despite the increased trade friction, a decoupling of the U.S. economy from the Canadian economy just seems unfathomable to most observers. The main question we receive is ‘when will things happen‘?  Meaning when will financial markets react?  The most obvious answer to that question is, when the USA announces the termination of the USMCA (CUSMA) trilateral.

If you hold the opinion that all of these trade friction points will be resolved within the margins of the USMCA, then it is correct to predict that no significant material impact will be felt north of the border.  If, however, you hold the opinion that the USMCA will be terminated because the core of the issues between the two countries are irreconcilable, then the material impact will come as soon as that announcement is made.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, the only Canadian government official to attend President Trump’s inauguration, appears on Fox Business. Like all other Canadian officials, she cannot contemplate the elimination of CUSMA/NAFTA.  Such an outcome is simply beyond her comprehension. WATCH:

In previous interviews and broadcasts, Mrs Smith claimed if Canada was to introduce an export tax the USA would respond accordingly.  This is not accurate.  The U.S. has no mechanism to place a tax on exports.

Additionally, inside Canada the structure is provincial.  That means each province taxes each other province for goods and services.  In the USA we have state sales taxes, but those taxes are applied across all goods sold to/inside an individual state.  Ex. Florida does not tax Texas.  Florida has one sales tax for all goods regardless of their origin.

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I think we have finally figured out President Trump’s long-term strategy here.  Essentially, we have been flummoxed over why President Trump has not yet triggered the 6-month USMCA (CUSMA) termination notice yet.  However, he appears to be intentionally drawing this out.

For the deniers, I simply request you to think about it in very simple and logical terms.  Do you really foresee any possibility of President Trump or USTR Jamieson Greer renegotiating a USMCA agreement amid the divide Canada is creating?  There’s no way terms will ever be discussed.

Therefore, with an all-in perspective on termination, the moves President Trump is making now are all just to prolong economic pain and block investment while retaining the termination notice as the hidden ace.  [VIA TRUTH SOCIAL]

[Source]

Why this approach?

Well, right now American communists and those with TPS status changes are fleeing to Canada; a human sedimentation tank.

Bring back the corporations who set up shop in Canada and swap them for outbound, dependent leftists.

Alberta will never secede from Canada because Premier Danielle Smith is a gaslighting fibber and structurally in alignment with Mark Carney. Additionally, if you look up “battered conservative syndrome” in the geopolitical library you will note that Alberta is the birthplace of the mindset, and Pierre Poilievre is their mascot.  Alberta will never leave Canada.

Those who understand the pretense of the UniParty in the United States, likely understand that in Canada the pretending is exponentially more entrenched.

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President Trump holds a press availability in the oval office for a signing ceremony changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.  Additionally, President Trump answered questions about the U.S relationship with the Canadian government.

Listen to the presser and you fully understand President Trump’s position on U.S-Canadian trade and the trilateral NAFTA/USMCA agreement.  Trump noted he is now finishing the North American trade and economic policy that he began in his first term.  There is not a single moment of hesitation in his responses.  WATCH:

President Trump also fielded questions about the Ukraine war and the status of relationship with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin.  President Trump succinctly said, “he’s not going to attack NATO.”

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As we have all learned in the past week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney manufactured an oppositional narrative to the U.S-Canada trade deal in order to say no. Today, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave specifics about the last-minute Canadian demands that blew up the trade agreement.

Secretary Lutnick has a long-standing relationship with Prime Minister Mark Carney and during the negotiations he talked at length to both Canada’s primary trade negotiator, Dominick LeBlanc as well as Prime Minister Carney. Lutnick notes the issues Carney claimed were too much for Canada to agree to were entirely manufactured at the last minute in order to say no.

At no point was the French language ever mentioned in the trade discussions. At no time was the trade sector that involves U.S. tariffs against heavy-duty trucks and semi tractor trailers ever mentioned, until Friday at 4:00pm when Carney brought up that issue. The agreement was outlined and agreed by all parties prior to Friday; Howard Lutnick speaking twice to Prime Minister Carney personally. There was no issue until the last minute when Canada chose to make issues.

As Lutnick notes, this is all political on the Canadian side. Prime Minister Carney needed domestic political leverage to manipulate his constituents. This is worth watching:

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The full presser is below that covers other topics including the Kennedy Center.  In the longer video the Canada issue comes up at 18:38.

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This is a must watch interview.  Most Americans have no idea that Canadian media is controlled by the Canadian government; it’s what they call “cultural protection” where the rules and regulations of permissible speech are controlled by govt regulators and media are subsidized by govt.  The overall objective is to control information and censor viewpoints that might be averse to the interests of the Canadian govt. That’s why most Canadians have no concept of granular details on policy matters; they just don’t get the information.

In this interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), U.S Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is discussing the trade conflict and breakdown with Canada’s version of Baghdad Bob, Rosemary Barton.  I’m a little surprised the CBC would even entertain the discussion. However, as noted in the past few days there is increasing skepticism amid Canadians about who and what actually blew up the trade talks. Canadians are starting to show signs of suspicion; enter Ms. Barton on behalf of the Canadian government to try and control things.

USTR Jamieson Greer answers the questions in a most unfortunate manner; meaning, he told the truth.  Greer outlined exactly why he suspects the trade talks broke down, and it has nothing to do with economics or trade, it’s all politics on the Canadian side.  As Greer noted, there was no change to the trade agreement between President Trump and Prime Minister Carney’s lengthy phone call on Tuesday, and the Canadian decision to walk away on Friday.  Greer was being very diplomatic, but Barton started getting the vapors. WATCH:

Greer noted the Carney administration had requested “Fortress North America” a synergetic alignment of U.S-Canada trade principles.  Canada wanted a united North American continent against the world on trade.  Therefore, this talk of Canada being upset about joint collaboration and agreement on trade agreements with third countries, a point brought up by Carney in the walk-away just doesn’t make sense.

If you want a united trade policy for North America, then each nation in North America must hold the same baseline on terms and conditions with other nations.  That was the discussion. Those were the agreed principles; until all of a sudden Canada accused the U.S. of dictating terms.

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Hopefully CTH readers have followed this story close enough to be able to predict where it ends. The White House has released an official and scathing press release outlining the lengthy and long-term issues with Canada and trade disputes.

WHITE HOUSE – Canada has been ripping off the United States for decades — and President Donald J. Trump is done letting them get away with it. Last week, the U.S. offered Canada the most preferential market access of any country on Earth, with deep cuts on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, and more. Instead of partnership, Canada chose unreasonable demands, walk-backs, and flat-out rejection.

The record of Canadian abuse is clear and deliberate:

• FACT: Canada is joined only by the People’s Republic of China in choosing retaliation over negotiation. Their continued discriminatory treatment of U.S. commerce has burdened American workers, farmers, and businesses.
• FACT: Canada alone imposed discriminatory 25% tariffs and company-specific quotas on U.S. motor vehicles — measures applied to no other country. As a result, U.S. vehicle exports to Canada crashed 22% over the last year.
• FACT: Canada banned American wine, beer, and spirits in nearly every province and territory — while other countries have faced no such restrictions. As a result, U.S. alcohol exports to Canada collapsed 81% in a single year.
• FACT: Canada locks out U.S. dairy with tariff-rate quotas far more restrictive than those given to Europe, plus over-quota tariffs of nearly 300% — rates so extreme they function as a near-total ban and rank among the highest agricultural tariffs in the developed world.

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There are many people in Canada demanding to see the rough draft proposals of the U.S-Canada trade agreement so they can judge for themselves the issues that Carney claimed were irreconcilable.  For those people this interview today by Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will only embolden those requests.

Trade Emissary LeBlanc outlined the major fracture points that drove Prime Minister Mark to reject the deal. I’ll put the full interview below which everyone should watch because what LeBlanc outlined is rather funny.  Carney was obviously looking for a reason to walk away, because the fracture points were ridiculously small.

Essentially, it boils down to four issues. !1) Removal of tariffs on Canadian assembled Semi-Trucks. (2) U.S. streaming services writing code for “search engines” in the French language. (3) Canada demanding 5% of gross revenues from U.S. tech platforms, and the last one is silly because it already exists: (4) the U.S. having a right to reject a trade deal made by Canada with a non-market economy, ie. CHINA.

Taking the issues one by one we start with ♦U.S. tariffs on Canadian Semi Trucks.  Canada wanted tariffs on Big Rigs removed. The U.S. said no.

The reason is simple.  Big Rigs assembled/built in Canada are falling apart in the USA. Why? Because they are full of cheap Chinese component goods and parts that wear out quickly.  The U.S. wants two things on this issue. Either: (1) Make them in the USA, or (2) stop using cheap Chinese component parts.  The parts that Canada are using are not even available in the USA because we tariff and reject them, so why should we accept them when Canada installs them?  Either quit using Chinese parts (hence, the trade alignment against Chinese imports), or accept a tariff equal to the rate we would apply if the product was coming directly from China.

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This is a pretty good encapsulation of the relationship between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the DNC officials within the United States. Although Kokinda missed mentioning the meeting between Barack Obama and Mark Carney shortly before the G7 summit in France.

After Prime Minister Mark Carney abruptly pulled Canada out of U.S. trade talks and framed the dispute as a “war,” this episode argues the rupture isn’t really about tariffs but about political and financial strategy aimed at the U.S. midterm elections. Citing U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s account of negotiations and Canada’s unique retaliation, the script claims Carney is pursuing “geo-industrialization” and a “donut strategy” to go around the White House and influence American public opinion, aided by U.S.-connected advisers and outreach to mostly Democrats.

Kokinda also highlights comments from Iran’s foreign minister about U.S. debt and links the broader conflict to competing economic systems. The episode concludes that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is fighting a parallel battle to manage risks from the yen carry trade using tools like FIMA to prevent destabilizing Treasury selloffs.

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In short, as Canadian conservatives suspected, Mark Carney lied about everything!

U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer appeared on CNBC this morning to discuss the trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada and what caused the final breakdown at the last minute.  Greer notes the Canadian team appeared to be negotiating at the end from the position of politics as the Canadian team were aligning themselves with a domestic effort.

Greer draws attention to the friction points being very small. The U.S. tariffs were on less than 5% of overall Canadian exports and less than .06% of U.S. imports.  The U.S. made several offers to present Canada with the best trade terms in the world; however, Canada wanted more.  Canada wanted to retain all their market barriers, retain all quotas, retain all tariffs and restrictions against U.S. goods and services, but remove all the tariffs against them.

This is a really solid interview to watch because USTR Greer doesn’t need to pretend anything.  The terms offered were direct and consistent with benefit to both America and Canada.  On the language issue, Greer completely refutes the claims by Mark Carney about the U.S. seeking to change the language of Quebec and starts laughing at the premise. The issue relates to Canada demanding that five percent of all tech income be given to Canadian tech companies they compete against. That demand is ridiculous.  WATCH:

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Every time he has the opportunity, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reminds the world he views Canada as a part of Europe.  As the trade conflict between the USA and Canada deepens, Mark Carney looks toward Europe for a financial and security lifeline.

During remarks earlier today Commonwealth Prime Minister Carney noted his intention to join with Europe this fall for increased economic and national security.  This is an alignment the former Bank of England head has been operating since his installation. [X Link]

🇨🇦🇪🇺 I will condense my many tweets on the subject here:
– Europe’s financial and banking system is about to collapse due to insufficient collateral.
– The war in Ukraine was meant to collapse Russia and take its resources for the needed collateral.
– The war in Ukraine failed,…

— Northern Sceptic (@NSceptic11501) August 24, 2026

From my perspective this is Commonwealth banker Carney’s financial hedge against the looming USMCA termination.

Carney will be counting on U.K and EU financial support when the Canadian dollar declines quickly.  You might remember the Bank of Canada warning about this.

May 2026: – […] A cascading series of events could cause a sharp loss of investor confidence and lead to a spike in demand for liquidity or rapid asset sales. Funding markets could come under pressure, and stress could spread more broadly.

To be clear, the FSR is not about what we expect will happen. It is an assessment of how existing vulnerabilities—or pockets of stress—could amplify shocks and ultimately spread across the financial system.” (more)

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