Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.

What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing.  I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.

Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?

Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!

So, what’s different?  Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism.  For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.

As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find.  In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS.  Great Britain is almost out of fuel.

That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.

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President Trump Special Emissary Steve Witkoff relays this official statement following meetings with U.S. Negotiators, Arab state partners, Turkey and Gaza officials about the next phase in the Israel-Gaza peace plan.

STEVE WITKOFF – “We, the representatives of the United States of America, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the State of Qatar, and the Republic of Türkiye, met yesterday in Miami to review the implementation of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire and to advance preparations for the second phase.

The first phase has yielded progress, including expanded humanitarian assistance, the return of hostage bodies, partial force withdrawals, and a reduction in hostilities.

In our discussions regarding phase two, we emphasized enabling a governing body in Gaza under a unified Gazan authority to protect civilians and maintain public order.

We also discussed regional integration measures, including trade facilitation, infrastructure development, and cooperation on energy, water, and other shared resources, as essential to Gaza’s recovery, regional stability, and long-term prosperity.

In this context, we expressed our support for the near-term establishment and operationalization of the Board of Peace as a transitional administration for the civilian, security, and reconstruction tracks of the reconstruction. We reviewed next steps in the phased implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Plan for Gaza, underscoring the importance of sequencing, coordination, and effective monitoring in partnership with local Gazan institutions and international partners.

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Last night on CNBC Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff hinted that some stunning revelations around expansion of the Abraham Peace Accords would likely surface in the next week.   Immediately thereafter, President Trump sent a message of support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, against a judicial effort targeting the Prime Minister.

Today, we start to hear of some rather stunning developments in the region that might explain multiple background stories, including the above and the severity of response from President Trump when he felt that Israel was overreacting to the Iran missile fired during the early hours of the ceasefire.

In a stunning development, Israel Hayom is reporting on the outlines of a peace agreement and long-term solution for the Israel-Gaza conflict.  The report might explain why President Trump made bold moves in Syria recently, including the removal of all U.S./western sanctions and the close relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MbS).

According to Israel Hayom, there was a 4-way call (Trump, Netanyahu, Rubio, Dermer) after the Iran strikes. President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to “fundamental principles in general terms” including:

♦ “Gaza hostilities will conclude within two weeks.” ♦ “Four Arab nations (including Egypt and the UAE) will administer the Gaza Strip, replacing the murderous Hamas terrorist organization.” ♦ “The remaining Hamas leadership will face exile to other countries (possibly Qatar and Turkey), while the hostages gain freedom.” ♦ “Multiple nations globally will accept numerous Gaza inhabitants seeking emigration.” ♦ “Abraham Accords expansion will bring Syria, Saudi Arabia, and additional Arab and Muslim countries to recognize Israel and establish official relationships.” ♦ “Israel will declare its willingness for future Palestinian conflict resolution under the ‘two states’ concept, contingent upon the Palestinian Authority reforms.” ♦ “The United States will acknowledge limited Israeli sovereignty implementation in Judea and Samaria.”

President Trump was reportedly angered by Israeli strikes after his Iran ceasefire announcement, because he feared further hostilities would derail this complicated deal.

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Within the recent interview between President Trump’s emissary Steve Witkoff and Tucker Carlson, there was a very weird segment where Ambassador Witkoff was heaping praise upon the Qatari government. [SEE HERE] Carlson sat there nodding and affirming his support for Witkoff’s opinion of Qatar. It was really bizarre. {GO DEEP}

That segment of the interview was bizarre because there is zero doubt that Qatar is a bad actor in all things related to the middle east and U.S. domestic policy outcomes. For Ambassador Witkoff to be that wrong about such a big item puts a question mark behind his judgement and the influences on his opinions toward the relationships in the middle east.

Qatar is bad news. President Trump has previously, correctly, called out the nation of Qatar for being the center of support for radical extremism throughout the region. Qatar is also connected at the hip to the CIA.

Qatar funded and supported the original “Arab spring,” more accurately known as the Islamist Spring. Qatar is the banker for the Muslim Brotherhood. The Qatari government fund Al Jazerra. When the Arab extremists were exiled from Egypt the leaders fled to Qatar. The leaders of Hamas also live in Qatar.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) eventually had to confront Qatar with sanctions and ostracization due to the Qatari support for radical Islamic extremism. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, all of which barely survived in the Arab Spring uprisings, all put pressure on Qatar to stop their support for radical Sunni extremists.

Qatar is a supporter for Hamas, and Qatar is in cooperative alignment with the Iranian influence in the region. When Biden released the $6 billion for Iran, it was deposited in a Qatari bank. When the 5 Muslim Brotherhood leaders were released from Gitmo, exchanged for Bowe Bergdahl, they went to Qatar. When Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta sent surface to air missiles into Libya, Qatar organized the transfer.

Within the USA Qatar funds the same groups the USAID (technically the CIA) funds that stir up trouble domestically. Those groups include The Brookings Institute, who in turn fund Lawfare, specifically the efforts of Mary McCord, Andrew Weissmann and Norm Eisen.  Qatar spends money on issues in/around the USA that are against the interests of our country and President Trump specifically.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio will need to maintain a lot of energy to operate foreign policy advancement at the “optimal resolution” speed of President Donald Trump.

Rubio departed Israel for his visit to Saudi Arabia where two major topics are on the agenda. The U.S. Secretary was welcomed by Saudi Foreign Minster Faisal bin Farhan and is scheduled to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. On the agenda today is what to do about Gaza, tomorrow the discussion changes direction to address Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia has expressed opposition to the Trump plan for the temporary relocation of Gaza Palestinians while a complete restructuring, revitalization and rebuilding of the region takes place. However, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have not proposed an alternative to the Trump plan.

Saudi Arabia (MbS), Egypt (al-SiSi) and Jordan (King Abdullah II) have balked at the idea of Israeli Prime Mister Benjamin Netanyahu that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan temporarily host Palestinian refugees; a plan suggested by President Trump. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan do not want more Palestinians to worry about.

Ultimately, Secretary Rubio is in Saudi Arabia to ask Crown Prince MbS directly, if not the Trump plan – then what? What solution can be proposed by the Arabs that creates long lasting stability, peace and the opportunity for residents in Gaza to live without terrorism, Hamas, chaos and war?

♦ Tomorrow the agenda switches to discuss the Russia -v- Ukraine conflict. Secretary Rubio will be joined by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. The Russian delegation includes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, President Vladimir Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Oddly, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in the region; however, according to most public reporting he is not expected to participate in the U.S-Russia negotiations. I would not be surprised if something in the background is triggered by President Trump that pulls-in Zelenskyy while the Ukraine President is in Saudi Arabia.

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President Donald Trump and King Abdullah II of Jordan are having bilateral meetings today on the Israel v Hamas war and the subsequent issue with displaced Palestinians.

During the first press availability in the oval office, both President Trump and King Abdullah delivered remarks about the regional challenges, approaches and overall perspectives on the issues.  As expected, both President Trump and King Abdullah noted they await the plan from Egyptian President Fattah al-Sisi who has been tasked with taking the lead on developing a peaceful solution and broader long-term plan for regional stability.

Jordan doesn’t want to take more Palestinian refugees, though King Abdullah did say he was going to take 2,000 sick children for care in the kingdom of Jordan.

President Trump has given Hamas a deadline of Saturday at noon to release all the remaining hostages or, “there will be hell to pay.”  President Trump is willing to take part in rebuilding Gaza in the aftermath of the chaos and rubble as soon as Hamas is removed from the issue.

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Syria is a hot mess.  There’s only one face with a genuine smile today, Turkish Leader Recep Erdogan who has been attempting to leverage support for the “rebels” in Syria for a decade.  Through the years U.S. policy in Syria essentially armed and supported various factions of al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, and eventually Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, is essentially the Defacto head of the rebels who now control it.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.  The various elements of Islamic rebellion fall under the political umbrella of the Muslim Brotherhood; however, they have yet to show an ability to effectively govern in any region or state without extreme authoritarian rule.  Odds are high that Syria will tilt in that direction and eventually fall upon the only governing mechanism they understand, Sharia Law.

Joe Biden hails the efforts of the Syrian Rebels as a victory; however, these are the same rebels we armed and then fought repeatedly -in various iterations- as an outcome of U.S policy under the Obama/Biden administration. Lessons never learned from Benghazi, Syria is a hot mess.

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(Via Fox News) – Islamist leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who led a lightning offensive through Syria, has a long history of extremism despite a recent appeal to moderate policies.

[…]  Golani would cut ties with al Qaeda in 2016 and lead a merger between HTS and other Islamist groups in northwest Syria in 2017, bringing him control of territory that had fallen out of government hands during the country’s long civil war.

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According to Reuters, “Syrian rebels announced they gained full control over the key city of Homs early on Sunday after only a day of fighting, leaving President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule dangling by a thread as insurgents marched on the capital, Damascus.”

Responding to the situation on the ground, President Elect Donald Trump says we should stay out of it.

[Source]

Meanwhile a joint statement was released from officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Russia after an emergency meeting in Doha.

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There are a lot of interesting discussions and interviews amid the political chatter today.  It’s often difficult to filter which ones actually matter in the big picture.  This is one of those interviews’ worth watching.

Incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, brother-in-law to nominated U.S. Surgeon General Janette Nesheiwat and husband to former DNI policy chief Julia Nesheiwat, appears on Fox News to discuss his priorities for the national security system under President Donald Trump.

Within the interview Waltz makes sure the collective NATO “west” get the unity message about U.S-Ukraine policy: “Jake Sullivan and I have had discussions, we’ve met,” Waltz says in the interview. “For our adversaries out there that think this is a time of opportunity, that they can play one administration off the other — they are wrong. We are hand in glove. We are one team with the United States in this transition.”  WATCH:

Mike Waltz is married to Julia Nesheiwat, the sister of Surgeon General nominee Janette Nesheiwat.

Julia, who -like all other people who work in DC silos- has never taken a married name.  Julia Nesheiwat was born in Carmel, New York, in 1975 to Jordanian Christian immigrants and raised in Umatilla, Florida. She has a BA from Stetson University, an MA from Georgetown, and a PhD from Tokyo Tech.

Julia Nesheiwat became a military intelligence officer. She received the Bronze Star Medal during Operation Enduring Freedom in Iraq. She departed the military as captain.  Julia Nesheiwat served in several U.S. administrations. Under George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, she held senior national security and economic policy positions. Her most notable role was as Trump’s 10th Homeland Security Advisor from 2020 to 2021. Her Bush administration posts included State Department seniority and Office of the Director of National Intelligence Policy Chief.

Suffice to say their bedroom conversations are likely Intel Community shop talk.

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If you look at the structure of the announcements, there does appear to be a strategy at play; yes, including the likelihood of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.

Using the announcement of Steven C. Witkoff to be Special Envoy to the Middle East, I’ll try to put it together.

[SOURCE]

If President Trump pulls Marco Rubio out of the Senate, he opens up the position of Chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI).  Rubio would love the opportunity to load his presidential aspiration resume with Secretary of State, for later use. However, this also opens the opportunity for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to appoint an interim senator who would be more MAGA-minded, trustworthy and loyal (dare I say Gaetz).

With Rubio removed from the equation of the IC problem, the issue becomes mitigating (think neutering) the Secretary of State from undermining the Trump Doctrine; which, as you know, is the key Trump foreign policy approach using economic power combined with diplomacy.

President Trump has long expressed being sick and tired of U.S. mid-east policy, endless wars, endless spending etc.  President Trump in term-1 created the Abraham Accords to establish long-term peace and stability in the region, as a countermeasure to all the prior administrations stirring shit up there.  Essentially, the Abraham Accords create peace, get us out and allow policy to focus on more pressing foreign concerns, vis-a-vis China.

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