Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gets it.  When asked about the Strait of Hormuz, Bessent notes that yes, things will likely never return to the way they were before; however, there is a distinction that must be applied.

Even if Iran completely acquiesced to all of the most stringent terms and conditions requested by President Trump, they will never again recapture the position they held with the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint.

Capital markets respond to risk in the medium and long term; risks are always mitigated.  With the Strait now identified as a strategic risk, the emphasis will be on forever neutralizing that risk and avoiding the issue in the future.  As a consequence, Iran’s strongest point of leverage is disappearing now and will continue to disappear.  WATCH (prompted):

As further explained by James Thorne on X: “By repeatedly signaling its willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran hasn’t strengthened its hand, it has accelerated the market’s exit. Capital does not tolerate chokepoints; it routes around them.

Saudi Arabia is expanding its East-West pipeline. The UAE has already built out Fujairah as a bypass. Iraq is revisiting overland export corridors. Every marginal dollar now flows toward redundancy, not reliance. What was once a geopolitical lever is being engineered into irrelevance. Bessent gets it: markets don’t absorb coercion; they arbitrage it away.

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According to the announcements: ♦ Hamas agrees to gradually surrender weapons in exchange for Israeli troop withdrawal, under a phased plan announced by Donald Trump. ♦ Verification & Oversight: A verification committee will monitor disarmament and troop withdrawal, with weapons stored under a new Palestinian administration. ♦ International Mediation: Agreement brokered by Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the US-led Board of Peace, aiming to enable Gaza reconstruction and humanitarian access.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – Via Truth Social – “Today, the Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY.

This agreement is a critical step towards Gaza finally being governed by a new Palestinian government that will work closely with the Board of Peace to help the Palestinian people. At the same time, Israel will have the security it deserves, with Gaza no longer used as a base for terror attacks.

This is a major milestone in the implementation of the Trump 20-Point Plan. The agreement will be carried out in carefully structured phases. As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw, and the International Stabilization Force will work with a new Palestinian police force to take responsibility for Gaza being safe for its residents and its neighbors.

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President Trump calls-in to Fox Morning to discuss the passing of his friend Senator Lindsey Graham and other events of importance.    The discussion about Graham is the first 8 minutes.

The interview is prompted to [8:04] the segment where President Trump is discussing the current status of insufferable negotiations with a duplicitous Iranian negotiating team.  Obviously, President Trump is done with the word games and efforts of the Iran regime to “tap along” the negotiations while never intending to uphold their word or promises.

Previously the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain) urged President Trump to ignore the statements and promises from Iran as they could not be trusted.  However, the GCC -which is ironic considering Qatar intermediaries- then tried to directly negotiate with Iran using Pakistan.

Collectively the GCC, Trump and now NATO are all in the same frame of thinking that Iran is simply just playing games.  As a consequence, U.S. and allied military action is now taking place against Iran on multiple fronts.  WATCH:

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At the conclusion of the discussions in Switzerland, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent time emphasizing the two groups attained a very important objective. Putting all other issues aside, they had formally mapped out a communication strategy for deconfliction between U.S. and Iranian leadership.

Meaning, if everything starts to go sideways both the USA and Iran agreed to the mechanism for immediate talks.  Even if fighting and hostile action was taking place, the deconfliction agreement laid out the process to keep both sides in direct communication.  This is not like the “red phone” approach toward nuclear deconfliction, even if both sides were in the midst of red zone brutality against each other.

This urgent deconfliction assembly is exactly what appears to have been triggered, when earlier today President Trump announced via Truth Social that U.S. and Iran delegations were going to meet in Doha.

[SOURCE]

Both President Trump and Secretary Rubio well understand that as long as a direct communication process is in place, all of the various regional escalations can be managed safely.

Some element within Iran attacks a ship; the USA retaliates and takes out critical infrastructure. The conflicted point does not disrupt the communication process.  This is the optimal solution approach.

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Perhaps one of the most consequential voices in all of the Middle-East is Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.  Egypt is the intellectual hub of modern Islam, and a very pragmatic President Sisi has been the major opposition to radical Islam for the past decade.

President Sisi walks a careful position balancing his opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood with pragmatic perspective toward Israel and the friction therein.  Egypt has been stable under the leadership of Sisi, but extremist elements have continued to use the Siani region to create instability.  President Trump and President Sisi are in alignment on the cause for peace and stability.  WATCH:

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President Trump delivers remarks during a bilateral discussion with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani the Emir of Qatar. As previously noted, the G7 is no longer an assembly of the industrial nations. The G7 has morphed into a meeting of multiple nations unattached to the original intent.

The primary discussion surrounded the current deal with Iran for a cessation of hostilities.

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The Gulf Arab allies had been negotiating through Pakistan with Iran.

Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are now joined by Turkey in the construction of the agreement, which is important because Turkey now represents the figurative center of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The GCC and President Trump are not going to end Iranian Islamic extremism without the umbrella political organization of the Brotherhood accepting terms.

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

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President Trump announced on Truth Social that he is delaying further strikes against Iran pending current negotiations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.  According to the announcement the Gulf States are negotiating a ‘zero nuclear’ position.

This is an interesting development as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) were previously the ones urging President Trump not to halt the military pressure campaign.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN! Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

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In recent developments President Trump’s ‘project freedom’ operation to open the Strait of Hormuz for captured shipping interests has been paused following Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal of support and their revocation of Saudi air bases for U.S. operations.

The issue behind the Saudi decision is not that complicated if you understand the longer-term background.  However, the issue behind the Saudi decision also highlights a key ¹flaw in the Promethean analysis of the relationship (and the reason I caution everyone to sip slowly from this information source).

The cliff notes version is that Saudi Arabia and many of the Gulf States look at the negotiations between President Trump and Iranian interests with skepticism.  The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) wants a complete and final elimination of the threat Iran represents. They do not believe Iran can be negotiated out of that threat.  The GCC view negotiations as an Iranian delay tactic.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salmon, the main voice in the GCC position, has clear eyes and a long historic view on the threat Iran represents. They accept the people in control of the Iran regime will do and say anything to pause or remove the military confrontation; but they will never stop building the arsenal for war. There is zero, absolutely zero trust in anything the Iranians say on this matter.

As a consequence, Saudi Arabia understands the intent of President Trump’s request to support ‘project freedom’, however Saudi Arabia is not going to accept continued missile attacks from Iran during this ‘humanitarian’ effort to reopen the Strait. [Remember, this is also a Muslim Brotherhood issue.  The Brotherhood is the political network behind extremist Islam.]

President Trump is asking Saudi Arabia and the GCC states to view the continued Iranian attacks as small slights, small provocations, while he diplomatically tries to negotiate with the Iranian regime.  MbS and the GCC are unwilling to take this position, to accept these continued attacks against their nations, simply to give President Trump the political benefit of his policy.

Again, the Saudi’s and GCC have been dealing with this extremist threat for decades. They are unwilling to compromise in order to give space for negotiations they view as futile.  The U.S. can use all Saudi support venues to confront Iran militarily, but they are not going to support the political and diplomatic effort behind ‘project freedom’ while they are simultaneously expected to accept continued attacks from Iran.

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I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

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