A significant data-point to keep an eye on is whether there will be an extension to the suspension of sanctions against Russian energy products (oil and LNG) for the global market.
The current sanctions relief measures are scheduled to expire on April 11th, tomorrow.
April 9 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is currently in the U.S. and is meeting members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace deal for Ukraine and U.S.-Russia economic cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit told Reuters.
The visit comes before the U.S. decision on whether to extend sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda.
The United States issued a 30-day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by Iran war.
Susan Kokinda from Promethean Action gives her perspective on the negotiated ceasefire with Iran. Kokinda notes the key players were Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey (she missed China).
In a lesser reported part of the background, Chairman Xi Jinping summoned the Pakistani negotiators to Beijing prior to the terms of agreement with Trump. The summoning happened right after Trump said he was going to target the full force of the U.S. military against Iranian infrastructure.
Why does that matter to China? Belt and Road. Beijing has built a railway from China into Iran for the transport of goods and raw materials (including energy products) out of Iran (sanctions avoidance) in exchange for shipments of weapons. If President Trump targeted the railway infrastructure, in combination with the oil shipments being hampered, ¹China would be in a very bad place. Hence the summoning to get a ceasefire.
Focusing too narrowly on the British Empire as the source of all problems and you miss things. Mrs Kokinda missed this:
¹China in a bad place due to the middle east in crisis, means China becomes more dependent on Russia for oil, gas and ultimately fuel. Internally, Russia isn’t a big fan of their Chinese dependencies.
If FUBAR in Iran remained the statis, the two countries not in any crisis would be the USA and Russia, both with oil/gas and extra refining capacity. The countries/regions in biggest crisis would be China, Europe and Southeast Asia.
The U.S. and Russia less affected. China and the EU more affected. A significant geopolitical paradigm shift, all things considered…. and it appears that Beijing saw it coming.
Vice President JD Vance gave an impromptu press conference as he departed Hungary. At the beginning of his remarks, Vance wanted to clarify several false media reports surrounding the Iran ceasefire deal. WATCH:
In typical U.K political fashion, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer flew to Saudi Arabia to present the optics of participation, when he found out about the Iran ceasefire deal.
Immediately, Starmer, with an apparent mouse in his pocket, heads for the cameras to announce, “well, we’ve just reached this ceasefire.” WATCH (prompted):
President Trump announced, “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine are scheduled to hold a press conference at 8:00am ET. Livestream Links Below:
President Trump has announced a two-week delay in destroying Iran, based on a reciprocal agreement to open up the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. (VIA TRUTH SOCIAL)
“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!
The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.
Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP
CIA Director John Ratcliffe gets a lot of flak for his general invisibility during the Trump administration. Historically, the entire CIA apparatus has held dual missions, one domestic (hidden) and one foreign (opaque).
There is no reasonable person who would hold confidence in the fidelity of the CIA regarding their influence agenda on domestic politics. However, it does seem clear that CIA Director Ratcliffe has been trying to eliminate the mechanisms within the CIA who have operated that influence campaign.
Shifting the assembly of the Presidential Daily Briefing to the ODNI, the real assembly – not the optics therein, is one facet. Taking the National Intelligence Council (ie. the Ciaramella, Gurganus, NIC) intelligence manipulation system out of the CIA and under the ODNI is another visible facet. Additionally, substantively moving CIA operations away from the State Dept., and refocusing the majority of operations back toward the Pentagon is another example.
In the briefing with President Trump on the Iran rescue operations, Director Ratcliffe notes the removal of politics from CIA operations is ongoing. WATCH:
Restructuring a covert institution is a daunting task, made particularly difficult given the cornerstones of the institution were founded as a domestic influence operation. It may well be said the objective is impossible; indeed, there is slight chance of success given the background we all know too well.
That said, at least on the visible face of what can be seen within an agency whose legislative mandate includes the demand that all activity remain hidden from public review, Ratcliffe does seem to be making an earnest effort to restrain the control mechanisms.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference on Monday afternoon at 1:00pm ET. This comes after the president made a series of Truth Social posts about how the United States will target Iran’s power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Livestream Links Below:
Former Commander of CENTCOM, General Frank McKenzie, appears on CBS to give his analysis of ongoing Operation Epic Fury, along with the successful rescue of the F-15 crew. WATCH:
[Transcript] – ED O’KEEFE: We’re joined now by the former head of U.S. Central Command, retired General Frank McKenzie. General, Happy Easter.
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: And the same to you, Ed.
ED O’KEEFE: So it took just under 48 hours to find the missing weapons systems officer. After the jet they were in went down in a remote and mountainous area of southwestern Iran, the weapons officer was hiding in a mountainous crevice. We’re told by a senior administration official, what’s your assessment of how the search and rescue operation went?
GEN. MCKENZIE: So I think I’d draw two lessons from it, Ed. First of all, the excellence of the joint force, our ability to rapidly pivot, to look for a downed air crewman. We train for this endlessly. It’s a part of every time we send air crew over enemy territory, we have detailed, elaborate plans to go get them. It’s a very basic part of who we are as American fighting men and women. So that plan swung into action. I think it was executed pretty effectively. As always, you’ve got somebody on the ground, may be injured. They got to get to a position where they can hide until you can get to them. All that seemed to work out very well. And you know, we did, in fact, lose a couple of aircraft in that in that mission. But I would just tell you, it takes a year to build an aircraft. It takes 200 years to build a military tradition where you don’t leave anybody behind. You take the aircraft trade any day in a situation like this. The other lesson, I think, is a hard lesson for Iran. First of all, they were not able to find the missing air crewman. Second, you know, they put out a broad appeal to their people to turn him in reward, asking for all kinds of leads, that does not appear to have been successful. And that would- I think that’s maybe a sign of disaffection, don’t know, but you can’t, you can’t be happy with that if you’re a senior leader in Tehran this morning.
Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst shares details from a conversation he had with President Donald Trump surrounding negotiations to end armed conflict.
According to Yingst, President Trump is optimistic for a diplomatic settlement and a negotiated deal as early as tomorrow. However, if the deal is not made, the infrastructure within Iran will be systematically destroyed – as noted in a recent Truth Social Post:
The current sanctions relief measures are scheduled to expire on April 11th, tomorrow.
