Three days ago, the Australian government was downplaying reports of a serious shortage of fuel.  Today the Australian Prime Minister gives a national address and warns Aussies to conserve fuel, or else things will get sketchy.

In non-pretending terms: it’s Australia – PREPARE FOR THE SKETCHY!

The leaders of Canada, Great Britain and now Australia have delivered national addresses in the past 36-hrs about Iran, the subsequent energy issues and the geopolitical shifts currently underway they cannot control.  Keep in mind, the other thing these countries have in common is they are four (count NZ in AU) of the Five-Eyes countries.  The remaining eye is the USA, and President Trump is scheduled to deliver his national address tonight at 9:00pm Eastern.

For the folks down under it is worth remembering their COVID-19 experience.  When the government starts saying, ‘we hope you will voluntarily consider doing XXX’, the next thing that comes in the ‘conservation’ effort are government mandates, travel restrictions, lockdowns, rations and severe authoritarian control mechanisms. It’s the Australian way.

For this example, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivers “a rare address to the nation” outlining his government’s response to the Middle East conflict and fuel crisis.  “The months ahead may not be easy. I want to be up front about that,” Albanese warns. He then continues, “we will deal with these global challenges, the ‘[¹]Australian way’,” which should forewarn every person in Australia that government control mechanisms are being planned immediately.  Good luck!  WATCH:  

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I always found it rather remarkable that the countries who pushed the Build Back Better agenda the hardest; the countries who pushed climate change and complete restructuring of energy policies the most; were the exact same countries who triggered the expansive sanction regime against Russia. (reminder map below)

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Against the backdrop of the Iran conflict, crisis in the Middle East and the disruption of energy supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.K Prime Minister Keir Starmer held an urgent meeting with British business leaders, finance and bankers as well as U.K insurance leaders.  At the conclusion of that meeting, he informed media of a national address.

During the national address to the people of Great Britain, Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that events in the Middle East have forever changed the landscape of U.K. economic and geopolitical policy.  Signaling an inflection point crossed, the British prime minister announced that urgent actions were being taken to mitigate a national crisis.

Additionally, accepting the U.S. position toward NATO, and the U.K appears to be permanently shifted, Starmer said the British relationship with Europe now becomes critical to their vital national security interests.  Against the backdrop of an end to the “special relationship” with America, the Brexit independence from the European Union is now a threat.

The United Kingdom must find a way to reunite with the European Union, because if it remains alone, without key support and protection from the USA, the British Empire is at risk of collapse.  WATCH: 

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President Trump is also scheduled to deliver a national address at 9:00pm Wednesday.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave an interview with Fox News last night specifically centered around a changed U.S.-NATO relationship (that interview coming next).

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Susan Konkinda from Promethean Action, touches on the recent developments where President Trump and Secretary Bessent have distanced themselves from the old regimes of the former global alliances. Striking out anew, by charting a new course for sovereign nations.

“Susan Kokinda argues that RFK Jr.’s CPAC remarks—praising Trump’s use of power and saying JFK and RFK would back Trump on Iran, Ukraine, and rebuilding the middle class—cut through media narratives and signal a break from post–WWII imperial management. She says Britain and allied institutions are being sidelined, citing Chatham House’s warnings about UK limits and a “Not So Special Relationship” under Trump 2.0, while Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt convene in Islamabad to open U.S.-Iran dialogue without the UK, EU, or NATO.”

“Trump names Vice President JD Vance lead negotiator, presented as an anti–forever war interlocutor who has challenged Netanyahu’s regime-change expectations. Kokinda links this foreign-policy shift to a broader “American System” agenda: Peter Navarro’s protectionist trade revolution and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s rejection of Bank of England–style Fed models, framing it as American System versus British System.” WATCH:

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Al Jazeera is essentially the state run media outlet of Qatar.  Secretary of State Rubio sat down for a lengthy interview with Al Jazeera that will be shared throughout the Arab world.

“In an exclusive Al Jazeera interview, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that President Trump always prefers diplomacy, with messages and indirect talks ongoing between the US and figures inside Iran. Rubio demanded that Iran abandon all nuclear weapons ambitions, end its missile and drone programmes, and stop sponsoring terrorism across the region. He rejected Iran’s conditions for ending the war — including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and financial compensation — calling the strait demand illegal and a dangerous global precedent. Rubio declared that the strait “will be open one way or another” after US military objectives are achieved, whether through Iranian compliance or an international coalition.”

“He outlined those objectives as the destruction of Iran’s air force (achieved), navy (largely achieved), missile launchers, and weapons factories — all to be completed in weeks, not months. Rubio expressed disappointment with NATO allies like Spain for denying basing rights and airspace, warning that the US would re-examine its NATO commitment. He confirmed the US would welcome regime change in Iran but insisted it was not the official objective of the current military operation. The interview also covered post-Maduro stabilisation in Venezuela and called for serious economic and political reforms in Cuba.” 

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The rebranded Lyndon LaRouche PAC has another good outline on the new strategic alliances assembled by President Trump as the ongoing conflict with Iran continues.

Susan Kokinda reviews how the United Kingdom and Europe have been sidelined as President Trump directly negotiates with key stakeholders in the middle east and Asia.  Kokinda correctly notes the messaging from Russia indicates a strategic awareness that old systems are fracturing and the potential for new strategic alliances is rising.

“Susan Kokinda argues President Trump has opened a new diplomatic space to de-escalate the Iran conflict by working through a regional roster—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Gulf States, and back channels into Iran—while the U.K., EU, and NATO are absent and increasingly irrelevant. Citing reporting that ministers met in Riyadh and that Egypt, Turkey, and Oman carried messages, she says this “Board of Peace” architecture is isolating Iran and weakening its proxies, pointing to Lebanon’s move against Hezbollah, the Palestinian Authority’s condemnation of Iran, and Hamas considering disarmament. Kokinda links Europe’s exclusion to self-inflicted energy weakness from Green and anti-Russia policies, noting rushed LNG moves and a delayed Russian oil ban vote. She concludes Ukraine’s outlook darkens as Europe and Britain lack leverage, highlighting Zelenskyy’s scramble for support in London and Washington.” WATCH:

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This is good news from the standpoint of us wanting to see President Trump continue to make MAGAnomic progress on trade as well as geopolitical alliances.

It will be a very interesting summit against the backdrop of Venezuela, Iran, oil/gas energy shifts, the previous Alaska summit with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, the renegotiation of the USMCA and the Chinese auto deal in Canada…

There are a lot of important topics within a Trump-Xi summit.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “My meeting with the Highly Respected President of China, President Xi Jinping, which was originally postponed due to our Military operation in Iran, has been rescheduled, and will take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15th.”

“First Lady Melania and I will also host President Xi and Madame Peng for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C., at a later date, this year. Our Representatives are finalizing preparations for these Historic Visits. I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”  ~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

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The Trump curse is real.

With what she perceived as strong domestic support following her confrontation with President Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen decided to trigger an early election.  Frederiksen thought the timing was perfect; however, it backfired.

Mette Frederiksen’s political party suffered the biggest ruling party election defeat in 120+ years, and her coalition of left-wing parties now lost their majority.

As a result of the election, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has resigned.

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Barbara Boyd gives her perspective on the latest developments and President Trump policy intersects with the Iran conflict and the Mideast oil disruption.

According to the latest information from the region, some ships have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz despite the conflict.  It is reported that Iran is charging a $2 million fee for safe passage, however those reports are not officially confirmed.

Mrs Boyd notes the Arab nations have historically -and recently- remained under the control of the British, and President Trump has fractured this financial control system.  While there is an obvious historic reference to that relationship, I’m not as convinced the connective tissue is as deep as ¹claimed in the modern era (last 20 years).   WATCH:

In the modern era, thanks to technological advancement and strategic policy (even before Trump), oil and gas development and use has increasingly become regional.  Oil dependencies and the trade partnerships are now associated more with refinement capacity than simply global commodities.  Not all oil is created equal.

In the “producers and users” chart below, you can see the origin of regional production and import relationships.  The oil supplies from the middle east flow mainly to China and Asia.  The oil from Russia is the current wildcard.

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This is one of those small stories that carries the potential for significant domestic economic gains.

As many are aware, the U.S. imports a lot of softwood lumber from Canada. Combined with the energy products the lumber sector represents the top two U.S. imports from Canada.  With Venezuela now potentially positioned to replace the former, USDA Rural Development now stimulates domestic lumber development potentially positioned to replace the latter.

Taken as a whole, these two approaches significantly weaken the Canadian leverage that could be deployed in a Free Trade Agreement negotiation.  Assuming, of course, the USMCA is dissolved in favor of two bilateral FTAs.

USDA Press Release – At the Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference today, U.S. Department of Agriculture Administrator for the Rural Business and Cooperative Service J.R. Claeys announced the U.S. Department of Agriculture is guaranteeing $115.2 million across eight states through the Timber Production Expansion Guaranteed Loan Program (TPEP) to ensure sawmills and other wood processing facilities have the necessary funding to establish, reopen, expand, or improve their operations.

Today’s announcement includes recipients in the states of California, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Oklahoma, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

These investments represent a commitment by the Trump Administration to expand American timber production by 25%, reduce wildfire risk, and save American lives and communities by strengthening domestic wood processing capacity.

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Within Germany the Rhineland-Palatinate regional parliament election was held yesterday. The region is the heart of the German industrial sector and home to the massively important auto-manufacturing sector.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the biggest portion of the election, defeating the Social Democratic Party (SPD) who lost ground in the western area bordering France. However, the biggest electoral gains were for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with gains that more than doubled its previous vote share.

There is intense interest throughout Europe on the ideological shift in political sentiment mostly driven by economic concerns as well as rising nationalistic sentiment against the elitist minds in Brussels.  Essentially those being ‘ruled’ are increasingly fed-up by those doing the ‘ruling.’   The AfD party is akin to the pragmatic MAGA base more focused on economic nationalism than all the nonsense associated with multiculturalism, green energy programs and terrible immigration policy.

The ideological battle within Europe is ongoing, with some gains by nationalist parties over the collective mindset of the European elites.  However, the European Commission doesn’t just have a finger on the scales, they have full control over the mechanics of the elections themselves.   Yes, AfD more than doubled their share of votes to 20%, but CDU at 31% and the socialists at 26% is akin to mainstream corporate republicans and progressives respectively controlling 57% of the support base.

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