The high court has indicated it will be releasing opinions on one or more of the previously argued cases on Friday February 20, Tuesday Feb 24, or Wednesday Feb 25. The decision over tariffs triggered by President Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is one of the decisions now considered highly likely to surface.
If the decision doesn’t come this Friday, a rather interesting situation unfolds. The following week falls into the Tuesday Feb 24 State of the Union address.
Typically, several Supreme Court justices sit in front row of the House floor during the speech. The decision could be released on the morning of the speech, or justices could actually sit in the audience – knowing the outcome and the morning after the State of the Union address, the ruling could be released.
Now, there is a possibility the ruling will not come out in this cycle, but that is diminishing possibility considering the length of time the Supreme Court has sat on this opinion.
The court knows the importance of this decision, and they obviously know the State of the Union speech is scheduled to be delivered on Tuesday the 24th. This will be an interesting dynamic to watch unfold.
There is an awful lot to unpack in this seemingly obscure article talking about Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and a new trade approach he is pitching to Pacific/Asia and Atlantic/European nations. [Story Here]
Before getting to the substance of the outline, something important needs to be shared for context.
Do you remember the 2014, 2015 and 2016 top story conversations and debates over the Transpacific Partnership trade deal known as TPP?
You might also remember the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership trade deal known as TTIP.
The TPP (Pacific) and TTIP (Atlantic) were two major multinational trade deals negotiated between 2013 and 2016. While both sparked plenty of debate, most of the spotlight was on the TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Hillary Clinton was in favor of TPP as were most of the traditional republican field of candidates in ’15/’16. However, Donald Trump was strongly against TPP and pledged to exit out of any negotiations and scrap the U.S. participation if he was to win the 2016 election. Some of you may begin to remember this.
Donald Trump agreed with our position, that TPP was being falsely sold as a beneficial 12-nation massive trade agreement between the USA and pacific rim countries including Australia and Southeast Asia nations.
With the history of NAFTA behind us, we could see two major issues with TPP: #1: It was structured with a back door to let China into the deal. And #2) it was created to ensure the USA remained a “service driven economy.”
Supporters of TPP and TTIP claimed this multinational trade deals would create smooth supply chains and align on ‘rules of origin.’ They believed TPP would benefit companies and lead to cheaper products. Critics, however, argued that the agreements were designed to exploit the U.S. consumer market and prevent the country from ever regaining a strong manufacturing base.
I share those reminders to set up the big 800-lb gorilla question.
If the TPP was such a great trade deal for all parties involved, why didn’t the group finalize it after the USA withdrew? It’s been a decade, so why haven’t the TPP nations completed their trade agreement?
While the government of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has inked a trade agreement with China to accept cheap imported vehicles in exchange for Beijing purchasing some agricultural products, President Trump has promised those cheap Chinese EVs will never cross the border into the USA.
The Canadian polling on the issue has done a remarkable chang in the past few years. Now, the majority of Canadians are willing to purchase cheap Chinese EVs. As outlined by Bloomberg, “More than half of Canadians, or 53%, say that knowing an EV was made in China would have no effect on their purchasing decision, according to a new poll by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News.”
Approximately 50,000 Chinese electric vehicles will enter the Canadian market in the first year. “The pact with China includes a provision that part of the quota will be reserved for electric vehicles priced at C$35,000 ($25,700) or less, the government has said.” {SOURCE}
The Canadian government wants a Chinese auto manufacturer, any Chinese auto manufacturer, to build factories in Canada to produce these electric vehicles. Canada wants the jobs and economic activity because Canada is currently bleeding jobs and economic activity due to the trade conflict with the U.S.
Building cheap Chinese EVs in Canada might help offset a few thousand job losses, but building Chinese EVs in Canada only further ensures there will not be a substantive trade agreement between the USA and Canada once the USMCA (CUSMA) is dissolved. [More on that coming]
Secretary Marco Rubio went out of his way in this joint presser to emphasize the personal relationship between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump. Orban is facing a serious election challenge this April and all of the EU/NATO systems are actively trying to create pressure points to remove him.
Secretary Marco Rubio is in Budapest today for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his government to include the signing of a civilian-nuclear cooperation agreement heralded by the Trump administration. Hungary is one of the few voices within the European Union who is pushing back against Brussels efforts to go to war against Russia.
Prime Minister Orban has been very critical of Ukraine, openly stating his opposition to EU membership for the embattled country. In response President Zelenskyy has weaponized Ukraine’s geographical stewardship of oil and gas pipelines to shut down Hungarian energy and drive-up prices. VIDEO:
[Transcript] – MODERATOR: (Via interpreter) Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. May I extend my most cordial welcome to all of you, and may I extend my most special welcome to His Excellency Mr. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State of the United States of America, at the press conference and signing ceremony organized on the occasion of his visit to Hungary. Let me also extend my warm welcome to Mr. Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, members of the U.S. and Hungarian delegations, and all our esteemed guests.
At today’s event, the agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Hungary to facilitate cooperation on the civilian nuclear program in Hungary will be signed. The signatories to the agreement on behalf of the United States of America, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and on behalf of Hungary, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Mr. Peter Szijjarto.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a different path on his European visit than Brussels wanted to see. After his time at the Munich Security Conference, Rubio headed to Slovakia and Hungary for conversations with the two nations who are not at all in alignment with Brussels leadership on the issue of Ukraine.
UPDATE: Better video and Transcript Added
Rubio speaks very bluntly on the topics that are of key concern to Prime Minister Robert Fico, including the topic of energy which is a major problem for both Slovakia and Hungary right now. Toward the end of the presser, the very last response by Fico [44:20 of video] is very interesting.
Prime Minister Fico directly claims that Ukraine is purposefully withholding oil and gas from pipelines that travel from Russia through Ukraine, into Slovakia. Fico notes he is not going to blame either Ukraine or Russia for previously detonations at the oil refinery and transport hub, but he is very sure Ukraine is purposefully withholding energy products from Hungary as blackmail until Hungary changes their position on Ukraine achieving status in the European Union.
You can tell from the way Fico presents the subject and from the prior points of Rubio this hot button issue is why Fico flew to Mar-a-Lago a few weeks ago for a talk with President Trump. WATCH:
MODERATOR: (Via interpreter) Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Please, welcome to our press conference after mutual meeting of the Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico and Secretary of State of the U.S. Marco Rubio. So, Prime Minister, please, you have the word.
PRIME MINISTER FICO: Thank you. (Via interpreter) Dear Secretary of State, dear Marco Rubio, please allow me to welcome you once again – you and your whole delegation – to Bratislava and our office of the Government of the Slovak Republic. Dear ladies, dear gentlemen, we had a shared, short tete-a-tete meeting with the Secretary of State, and then we had delegations’ discussion when we went into details, where we discussed topics that are the point of our today’s meeting. I’ll try to briefly sum up the conclusions of our discussions, be it in Four Eyes or, let’s say, in our meeting of delegations.
First of all, I deeply appreciate the fact that this visit comes quickly after our meeting in Florida, where I had a chance to speak with the President of the United States Donald Trump with Mr. Rubio being present. So, it’s a great follow-up and great country, nation. And after a short while when we met in Florida, we could discuss how much we achieved during those few weeks about topics we discussed.
Marco Rubio appears for an interview with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News. The interview was pre-scheduled as a follow up to the rather historic speech in Munich at the security conference. Within the interview {video and transcript below} Rubio expands on the baseline of the speech, the ‘why‘ is the U.S-EU alliance important.
Beginning with the end in mind, Rubio reminds the interviewer that an alliance must first accept the purpose of the assembly. There are common values and common social components to the relationship that sit at the core of the decision to be allies.
We have a shared civilization based on shared values, and within that central component the Trump administration is staring at the Europeans and saying they have lost focus on these values. Europe is diminishing itself; it is fracturing its culture and has lost its sovereign identity. The United States wants to stay partnered with Europe, but we are not going to be a partner anchored to a collective mindset that has lost its identity.
This culturally Marxist status, a gathering of nations infected with political correctness, pontificating wokeness and apologetic self-flagellation, is the core problem the Europeans are not willing to face. President Trump and Marco Rubio are essentially telling the EU to shake it off, quit being woke, get proud of your heritage, institute political systems that give benefit to the population and regain pride in themselves and their identity.
The process begins with national security, but that is not just about military spending. Their energy industry needs to support economic independence; they cannot outsource component manufacturing; they need to reestablish economic baselines that are not dependent on Russia, China, India or any other risk vector that could be used to manipulate.
QUESTION: Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, thank you for talking to Bloomberg. You’ve just made this rather remarkable speech where you talked about the destiny of Europe and America always being intertwined. You talked about the alliance which has stretched all the way, culturally, from Michelangelo to the Rolling Stones – a first, I suspect, for a secretary of state – but a culture that has bled and died together. But the very common theme of your speech was the need to share the burden, the need for Europe and America to do things together, which was slightly different from the Vice President last year. Were you kind of offering a carrot where perhaps he was offering a stick?
SECRETARY RUBIO: I think it’s the same message. I think what the Vice President said last year very clearly was that Europe had made a series of decisions internally that were threatening to the alliance and ultimately to themselves, not because we hate Europe or we don’t like Europeans but because – what is it that we fight for, what is it that binds us together? And ultimately, it’s the fact that we are both heirs to the same civilization. And it’s a great civilization and it’s one we should be proud of. It’s one that’s contributed extraordinarily to the world and it’s one, frankly, upon which America is built, from our language to our system of government to our laws to the food we eat to the name of our cities and towns – all of it deeply linked to this Western civilization and culture that we should be proud of, and it’s worth defending.
And ultimately, that’s the point. The point is that people – people don’t fight and die for abstract ideas. They are willing to fight and defend who they are and what matters and is important to them. And that was the foundation he laid last year in his speech – and we add on into this year – to explain to people that when we come off as urgent or even critical about decisions that Europe has failed to make or made, it is because we care. It is because we understand that ultimately, our own fate will be intertwined with what happens with Europe. We want Europe to survive, we want Europe to prosper, because we’re interconnected in so many different ways and because our alliance is so critical. But it has to be an alliance of allies that are capable and willing to fight for who they are and what’s important.
The pundits, economists and financial media are shocked, perplexed, befuddled and flummoxed. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the January inflation data [SEE HERE] and the results are much better than they expected.
Overall inflation is 2.4% year-over-year, and there are zero indications that tariffs are having any impact on consumer prices [See Apparel].
CORE inflation, which removes food and energy, comes in at 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest number since March 2021. This is like reliving 2018 all over again, when the pundits proclaimed with absolute certainty that Trump’s tariff approach was going to cause inflation; it never happened.
VIA ABC – Inflation cooled in January, dropping price increases to their lowest level in nine months, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The lower-than-expected reading defied fears of a tariff-induced hike in overall costs.
Prices rose 2.4% in January compared to a year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index.
The Obama-Biden administration couldn’t get the votes needed in Congress to amend the Clean Air Act and regulate “greenhouse gases.” So, they both decided to ignore the law and create trillions in regulatory costs on the American people.
As noted by EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, “The Trump Admin is proudly following the law, saving $1.3 TRILLION for the American people, lowering new car costs by over $2,400 per vehicle, and getting rid of the climate participation trophy for manufacturers to install Obama Switches that shut vehicles off at red lights and stop signs.” WATCH:
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics releases the employment figures for January today [BLS DATA HERE]. Overall, in the establishment survey, 130,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. This is much stronger than anticipated and there are indications of significant movement back to work as the exfiltration of illegal alien workers continues.
Via WSJ – “The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, surging past expectations and marking a strong start to the year following a weak year of job growth. The January numbers from the Labor Department were above the seasonally adjusted 48,000 jobs added in December, which were revised slightly lower. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting 55,000 jobs in January.
The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey from the jobs figures, fell to 4.3% from 4.4%.” (more)
What I find interesting in the Household ‘Employment’ Survey is the number of people going back into the workforce. I am left to wonder if the ICE removals are starting to create employer driven incentives, increased wages etc. that seem to be pulling sidelined workers back to the labor market.
Writing on a Truth Social post earlier this evening, President Trump is threatening to block the U.S. side of a new bridge that links Detroit, Michigan to Ontario, Canada:
(Truth Social) – “As everyone knows, the Country of Canada has treated the United States very unfairly for decades. Now, things are turning around for the U.S.A., and FAST! But imagine, Canada is building a massive bridge between Ontario and Michigan. They own both the Canada and the United States side and, of course, built it with virtually no U.S. content. President Barack Hussein Obama stupidly gave them a waiver so they could get around the BUY AMERICAN Act, and not use any American products, including our Steel.
Now, the Canadian Government expects me, as President of the United States, to PERMIT them to just “take advantage of America!” What does the United States of America get — Absolutely NOTHING! Ontario won’t even put U.S. spirits, beverages, and other alcoholic products, on their shelves, they are absolutely prohibited from doing so and now, on top of everything else, Prime Minister Carney wants to make a deal with China — which will eat Canada alive. We’ll just get the leftovers! I don’t think so.
The first thing China will do is terminate ALL Ice Hockey being played in Canada and permanently eliminate The Stanley Cup. The Tariffs Canada charges us for our Dairy products have, for many years, been unacceptable, putting our Farmers at great financial risk. I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve. We will start negotiations, IMMEDIATELY. With all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset. The revenues generated because of the U.S. Market will be astronomical. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ~PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
The USMCA renegotiation plan likely plays a big part in this announcement. Don’t react, just watch.
If the decision doesn’t come this Friday, a rather interesting situation unfolds. The following week falls into the Tuesday Feb 24 State of the Union address.
