As Vice President JD Vance and the U.S. negotiating team meet with interim, hopefully ‘governing’, Iranian officials in Pakistan, the U.S. Navy and military have entered the Strait of Hormuz.

First, the announcement from President Donald Trump:

“The Fake News Media has lost total credibility, not that they had any to begin with. Because of their massive Trump Derangement Syndrome (Sometimes referred to as TDS!), they love saying that Iran is “winning” when, in fact, everyone knows that they are LOSING, and LOSING BIG!

Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft apparatus is nonexistent, Radar is dead, their Missile and Drone Factories have been largely obliterated along with the Missiles and Drones themselves and, most importantly, their longtime “Leaders” are no longer with us, praise be to Allah!

The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may “bunk” into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea. We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves.

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A significant data-point to keep an eye on is whether there will be an extension to the suspension of sanctions against Russian energy products (oil and LNG) for the global market.

The current sanctions relief measures are scheduled to expire on April 11th, tomorrow.

April 9 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev ​is currently in the U.S. and ‌is meeting members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace ​deal for Ukraine and U.S.-Russia economic ​cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit ⁠told Reuters.

The visit comes before the ​U.S. decision on whether to extend ​sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda.

The United ​States issued a 30-day waiver for countries ​to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products currently ‌stranded ⁠at sea, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by ​Iran war.

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Vice President JD Vance was previously scheduled to appear at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium in Budapest, Hungary, when the truce deal with Iran was made public.  During his appearance, the Vice President was asked about his perspective on the negotiations.  WATCH:

Full discussion is included in the full video below.

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During an appearance at the Hudson Institute, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is asked to summarize the administration’s approach to upcoming USMCA (CUSMA) renegotiations.

USTR Greer emphasized the focus is on outcomes in review of the USMCA, not focusing on the previous trade structure itself. The results carry more weight than reviewing what was intended.  On June 1st Greer anticipates telling congress that the U.S. intends withdrawal, pending unilateral negotiations with both Canada and Mexico to resolve conflict.

Greer describes two different protocols within any negotiation to deal with the structural differences between both Canada and Mexico.  Those differences include a completely different import/export profile with each country, different sectors of goods, difference in the wage rates within each country and a structural difference in the way each country is establishing their own, independent free trade agreements with other third-party countries.  These baselines form the reason to tell congress of the dissolution, and on July 1st inform both Canada and Mexico about it.

In the interim, the points of conflict are currently being negotiated with Mexico toward resolution.  The same negotiation is expected later between the U.S. and Canada; however, it sounds like that engagement will take place after congress is informed of the points of conflict.  WATCH (prompted):

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You would have to read dozens of energy industry reports to get the information provided here in this exceptionally well-done news segment.

Sky News economics and data editor Ed Conway presents a fantastic look at how the issue with the Strait of Hormuz has impacted the global distribution of energy, oil, LNG and Kerosene (jet fuel), with particular emphasis on the vulnerabilities of the “modern industrialized western nations.”

Conway never points the finger to the “net zero” carbon goals of Europe, the U.K and Australia. However, he shows the outcome of their dependence on production and refining by other non-participating nations. The timelines clearly show, as the Green Energy policies were pushed the vulnerability inherent within any supply shock begins to get worse. This is a very well-presented data-driven analysis that is worth watching.

The last two-minutes also shred the claims by EU and British leadership, and highlights how Europe and the U.K are now dependent on the United States to meet their energy needs. WATCH:

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National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett appears on Bloomberg News to discuss the US March jobs report and oil market supply disruptions related to the military action in Iran against the impact of oil prices on the US economy.

Director Hassett notes the continued goal of the Trump MAGAnomic plan is to build momentum, keep driving domestic investment and the short-term impact from Iran should mitigate quickly.  WATCH:

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has released the March employment report [DATA HERE] reflecting gains of 186,000 private sector jobs, with another 8,000 federal government jobs eliminated.  Net gain 178,000 jobs.

Forecasters had anticipated around 63,000 net jobs gained: the actual result triples expectations.

[BLS Report – Table B]

This is a challenging time to use data to estimate overall employment strength, mainly due to the repatriation efforts underway that are removing illegal alien workers from the labor force.

As deportation efforts continue against the black-market workforce, in combination with targeting efforts toward fraudulent ‘mismatched’ social security records used to gain unlawful -albeit visible- market employment, it becomes challenging to quantify net realized job gains.

The overall goal is to remove the illegal alien workers, reestablish organic job market pressures to increase wages and pull American workers from the sidelines back into the labor market.  Removing illegal workers drives up real wages, that should (re)incentivize the labor market.   As these efforts continue, we are seeing wide variances, upward and downward swings, depending on the collection timing.

One of the positive aspects during this employment cycle is the reduction in the overall federal labor force.  Overall, in the past year, President Trump has removed 271,000 federal jobs more than reversing all of the govt jobs added during Joe Biden’s term in office.  This trend should continue.

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They stopped their oil and gas exploration.  They chose to chase ‘net zero’ academic pontifications.  They closed their refining operations. They took apart their coal-fired electricity plants.  They disassembled their nuclear power capabilities. Then, the absolute cherry on the proverbial cake, they voted to stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia.

The EU is now in the Find Out stage of their FAFO positioning.

Gasoline prices have skyrocketed. The last shipments of jet fuel have arrived. Major airline carriers are cancelling flights due to lack of fuel.  Faster than the EU can organize meetings to discuss their position, EU destined LNG shipments have diverted to southeast Asia and India as the ASEAN nations bid higher purchase prices for the vessels literally on the water.

Folks, it’s quite an article written by EU Politico as they outline how each of the leaders from the nation states are now discussing how vulnerable they are to the changed oil/gas environment with the mid east conflict ongoing.  The entire energy sector in Europe is now in crisis mode with leaders predicting it will get much worse within days, not weeks.

EU Politico – “Germany’s Friedrich Merz warns the economic fallout from the war in Iran is on track to rival that of the Covid pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[…] With the war in Iran threatening to choke off energy flows for the foreseeable future, Europe is facing a supply shock that promises to cripple manufacturing, ground airlines, hike up the price of food, spike borrowing costs and send inflation spiraling back to crisis levels.

As the last tankers carrying fossil fuels from the Persian Gulf pull into European ports, the scale of what is about to hit seems to be dawning on the continent’s leaders.

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Three days ago, the Australian government was downplaying reports of a serious shortage of fuel.  Today the Australian Prime Minister gives a national address and warns Aussies to conserve fuel, or else things will get sketchy.

In non-pretending terms: it’s Australia – PREPARE FOR THE SKETCHY!

The leaders of Canada, Great Britain and now Australia have delivered national addresses in the past 36-hrs about Iran, the subsequent energy issues and the geopolitical shifts currently underway they cannot control.  Keep in mind, the other thing these countries have in common is they are four (count NZ in AU) of the Five-Eyes countries.  The remaining eye is the USA, and President Trump is scheduled to deliver his national address tonight at 9:00pm Eastern.

For the folks down under it is worth remembering their COVID-19 experience.  When the government starts saying, ‘we hope you will voluntarily consider doing XXX’, the next thing that comes in the ‘conservation’ effort are government mandates, travel restrictions, lockdowns, rations and severe authoritarian control mechanisms. It’s the Australian way.

For this example, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivers “a rare address to the nation” outlining his government’s response to the Middle East conflict and fuel crisis.  “The months ahead may not be easy. I want to be up front about that,” Albanese warns. He then continues, “we will deal with these global challenges, the ‘[¹]Australian way’,” which should forewarn every person in Australia that government control mechanisms are being planned immediately.  Good luck!  WATCH:  

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I always found it rather remarkable that the countries who pushed the Build Back Better agenda the hardest; the countries who pushed climate change and complete restructuring of energy policies the most; were the exact same countries who triggered the expansive sanction regime against Russia. (reminder map below)

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Against the backdrop of the Iran conflict, crisis in the Middle East and the disruption of energy supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.K Prime Minister Keir Starmer held an urgent meeting with British business leaders, finance and bankers as well as U.K insurance leaders.  At the conclusion of that meeting, he informed media of a national address.

During the national address to the people of Great Britain, Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that events in the Middle East have forever changed the landscape of U.K. economic and geopolitical policy.  Signaling an inflection point crossed, the British prime minister announced that urgent actions were being taken to mitigate a national crisis.

Additionally, accepting the U.S. position toward NATO, and the U.K appears to be permanently shifted, Starmer said the British relationship with Europe now becomes critical to their vital national security interests.  Against the backdrop of an end to the “special relationship” with America, the Brexit independence from the European Union is now a threat.

The United Kingdom must find a way to reunite with the European Union, because if it remains alone, without key support and protection from the USA, the British Empire is at risk of collapse.  WATCH: 

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President Trump is also scheduled to deliver a national address at 9:00pm Wednesday.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave an interview with Fox News last night specifically centered around a changed U.S.-NATO relationship (that interview coming next).

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