President Trump is scheduled to announce the first negotiated trade deal in the global trade reset with the United States.  The deal is between the U.K and the USA, which is interesting as a UK free trade agreement was being worked on at the time COVID-19 hit in 2020.

Back in 2019 President Trump and then Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were working two strategic trade negotiations at the same time that never materialized. The first was an FTA with the U.K and the second was with the EU.  The nuance of the U.K deal was favorable and structurally aligned to create leverage against the EU negotiations. It will be interesting to see how this one is structured.

From President Trump this morning on Truth Social: “The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED

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The media have been going bananas wondering when President Trump will begin negotiations with China.  President Trump has been very clear that there is no need to open negotiations with China, but all discussions are welcome.

Essentially the point is that tariffs will remain in place until Beijing gets to a point where they acquiesce to the reality of President Trump’s terms for reciprocal trade.  The goal is to bring manufacturing back to the USA, not generate terms where manufacturing remains in China.

The Chinese trade delegation is scheduled to be in Switzerland at the same time as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to be there.  Both Bessent and Greer announced today they will meet with their Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of their travel to Switzerland.

USTR Press Release – […] “At President Trump’s direction, I am negotiating with countries to rebalance our trade relations to achieve reciprocity, open new markets, and protect America’s economic and national security,” said Ambassador Greer. “I look forward to having productive meetings with some of my counterparts as well as visiting with my team in Geneva who all work diligently to advance U.S. interests on a range of multilateral issues.”

While in Switzerland, Ambassador Greer will also meet with his counterpart from the People’s Republic of China to discuss trade matters.” (link)

Treasury Secretary Press Release – “During Secretary Bessent’s visit to Switzerland, he will meet with President Karin Keller-Sutter of Switzerland, during which the Secretary will follow up on their recent meeting on the sidelines of the recent World Bank Group (WBG) – International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings. 

While in Switzerland, Secretary Bessent will also meet with the lead representative on economic matters from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). (link)

As we previously noted, the Swiss are very interested in resolving their trade status quickly.

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I don’t want to say ‘I toldya so’, but….  Listen carefully to the answer to the first question at (05:00 minute mark) as President Trump responds to the question about the USMCA with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney next to him.  The USMCA is “effective, and it’s still effective, but people have to follow it,” inferring the issues of Canada as a tool to avoid China tariffs, President Trump said.

Then comes the part everyone will overlook as President Trump notes, “as you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” Then comes the biggest statement, “this was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that”… “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.”  …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”  This presents the future of the USMCA and specifically the U.S-Canada aspect to the trade deal exactly as we anticipated.

President Trump is going to exit the trilateral USMCA in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements between the U.S and Mexico; and the U.S and Canada.  The only consideration now is the timing.  President Trump is 100% focused on the BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE; it’s not about the politics, it’s all about the economics. [Also pay attention to USTR Jamieson Greer]  WATCH:

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Prime Minister Mark Carney knows what is coming. His response about stepping up their military spending to meet NATO obligations is part of that dynamic.

The 51st state remarks were all about getting Canada into a position where Trump is about to open up two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements.  The relationship that Canada has with China is a major risk to Carney’s position.  Canada doesn’t stand a chance.  In essence, at the end of this journey of economics North American trade is going to be entirely different.

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India was under pressure by both sides, the USA and China.  Part of the Trump Indo-pacific plan was a geopolitical trade strategy aligning the United States with India.  However, Beijing was pressuring India to reject alignment with the USA and form a mutually beneficial trade block with China.

India has rejected the Chinese plan and chosen to follow the USA model because access to the U.S. consumer base is the stronger economic influence.

The result? Once again, sad Panda.

INDIA – India has sided with the United States (US) President Donald Trump on the trade war with Xi Jinping of China. Reports indicate that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is ready to accept all conditions of the US in a trade deal.

Trump raised tariffs on most Chinese imports to 145%, citing the need to reduce the trade deficit and encourage domestic manufacturing.

In retaliation, China has imposed 125% tariffs on US goods and implemented non-tariff barriers, including export controls on critical rare-earth elements.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Trump in the White House in February 2025.

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In a decision to position for long-term tariff avoidance, Mercedes Benz will shift production of their GLC (compact SUV) to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, away from Bremen, Germany.

Previously, the German automaker had shifted manufacturing of large SUV lines to the USA to avoid the pre-existing 25% ‘chicken tax.’  However, the smaller and less expensive crossover types were still made in Germany and shipped to the USA.  As the shipping vessels returned to Germany, they would take some of the SUV inventory back with them.  It was the most cost-effective solution, given the nature of the tariff situation.

Now, with larger import tariffs against all vehicles, Mercedes has shifted their business model to essentially an outcome where all USA marketed/sold vehicles will be manufactured in the USA, and all EU marketed/sold vehicles will be manufactured in Germany.

(Via Daily Mail) – Mercedes-Benz will shift production of one of its vehicles to Tuscaloosa, Alabama by 2027. The German luxury carmaker’s move is the latest response from an industry caught in the expensive crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s 25 percent tariffs.

The decision marks a potential win for Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, which aims to boost US manufacturing by slapping steep tariffs on foreign-made goods. But there are many complicating factors.

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Against the backdrop of Alberta, Canada proceeding with a plan to separate from the land of the Snow Mexican leftists, a leaked video conference call between U.S. President Trump, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Doug Ford and Prime Minister Mark Carney is created.

Keith Wilson provides the created leaked content for review. WATCH:

pic.twitter.com/JXfjQ2uFaf

— Keith Wilson, K.C. (@ikwilson) May 3, 2025

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A very solid argument can be made that something akin to the Alberta-U.S. merging was the plan all along. {DEEP BACKGROUND}

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Think about it.  We’ve already heard about the massive stoppages of April factory work in China, causing serious concern for Beijing and Chinese worker protests.

American importers front loaded inventory in February and March with a 50% increase in orders.  Now, in addition to those factories going quiet, the de minimis rule kicks in.

(Via CNBC) – Chinese bargain retailer Temu changed its business model in the U.S. as the Trump administration’s new rules on low-value shipments took effect Friday.

In recent days, Temu has abruptly shifted its website and app to only display listings for products shipped from U.S.-based warehouses. Items shipped directly from China, which previously blanketed the site, are now labeled as out of stock.

Temu made a name for itself in the U.S. as a destination for ultra-discounted items shipped direct from China, such as $5 sneakers and $1.50 garlic presses. It’s been able to keep prices low because of the so-called de minimis rule, which has allowed items worth $800 or less to enter the country duty-free since 2016.

The loophole expired Friday at 12:01 a.m. EDT as a result of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in April. (more)

The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

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According to the people present, when former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago to meet with President-elect Donald Trump, his primary objective was to inform President Trump his public demands for U.S. trade reciprocity with Canada were unachievable.

Trudeau was not lying.  In this outline we will explain a dynamic that is certain to surface this summer.

President Trump has deferred all North American trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico until later in the year, after the priority trade deals with other large trade partners are completed.  The USMCA trade pact is due for review and renegotiation this year [BACK STORY]. We should expect an entirely different trade pact as an outcome, quite possibly the ending of the trilateral nature of the current agreement.

A few days ago, Politico noted that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a reprieve from his prior campaign points about confronting President Trump on tariffs immediately.  PM Carney is currently trying to align allies for what will likely be a major confrontation that he cannot win.

♦ BACKGROUND – Following the 2024 presidential election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago and said if President Trump was to make the Canadian government face reciprocal tariffs, open the USMCA trade agreements to force reciprocity, and/or balance economic relations on non-tariff issues, then Canada would collapse upon itself economically and cease to exist.  In essence, in addition to the NATO defense shortfall, Canada cannot survive as a free and independent north American nation, without receiving all the one-way benefits from the U.S. economy.

To wit, President Trump then said, if Canada cannot survive in a balanced rules environment, including putting together their own military and defenses and meeting their NATO obligations, then Canada should become the 51st U.S state.  It was following this meeting that President Trump started emphasizing this point and shocking everyone in the process.  However, in the emotional reaction to Trump’s statements, no-one looked at the core issues outlined by Trudeau that framed President Trump’s opinion.

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The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has released the jobs and employment data for April [SEE HERE].  Within the data we see 177,000 jobs were gained, beating expectations of 133,000.   The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%.

Federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April [BLS, Table B-1]  Health care added 51,000 jobs: consisting of hospitals (+22,000) and ambulatory health care services (+21,000). Transportation and warehousing increased by 29,000 jobs in April: with warehousing and storage (+10,000), couriers and messengers (+8,000), and air transportation (+3,000).

.@StephenMoore reacts to the jobs report: “436,000 increase in the number of people who are employed. So, this is an amazing report… The labor force participation rate rose. So, this is a very strong number.” pic.twitter.com/CuAPwD52Yn

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 2, 2025

(Via Wall Street Journal) – The U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a steady clip in April, although the pace of gains slowed slightly during a month that saw changing tariff announcements and market turmoil.

The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported Friday, above the gain of 133,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see.

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This next story is a natural outcome in the flow of goods. Remember, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the first quarter is a hindsight review. Meaning the information released today was based on activity in January, February and March 2025.

U.S. companies surged the purchasing of import goods, mostly from China, by more than 50% in the first quarter. They were/are building inventory. So, what happens in China starting in April?

Hong Kong, CNN – China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, as steep US tariffs took a heavy toll on the manufacturing sector, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to roll out fresh economic stimulus.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April, the weakest reading since December 2023, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement that the contraction in factory activity was due to “sharp changes in the external environment and other factors.” (read more)

The U.S. has front-loaded the inventory. So, orders to China drop now. It’s a natural outcome.

We have purchased goods in advance. So, orders to China drop. As a result, the cargo shipments from China to the USA drop in April, May and June.

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