White House trade and manufacturing advisor Peter Navarro appears on CNBC to discuss the Bloomberg news story about the White House blocking U.S. investment in China.  Additionally, Navarro is asked about U.S-China trade discussions.
This interview happens on the heels of a massive win for the White House at the Universal Postal Union Congress, where the UPU accepted that inbound package deliveries to the United States will no longer be subsidized by U.S. taxpayers – {Details Here}.

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There are two aspects to this recent story: the visible surface issue; and the unspoken issue below the surface.  In essence, there’s more here than most will recognize at first blush.
The surface level aspect is the Trump administration considering a block on U.S. investments into the opaque financial system that is China.
The U.S. financial media view the proposal through the prism of the White House looking for leverage over Beijing during negotiations:

(Via CNBC) […] Restricting financial investments in Chinese entities would be meant to protect U.S. investors from excessive risk due to lack of regulatory supervision, the source said.
The deliberations come as the U.S. looks for additional levers of influence in trade talks, which resume on Oct. 10 in Washington. Both countries slapped tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other’s goods. The discussions also come as the Chinese government is taking steps to increase foreign access to its markets.

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Today, President Donald J. Trump met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Republic of India at the United Nations General Assembly. The leaders discussed progress on different aspects of their strategic partnership and upcoming opportunities to ensure it remains strong. The President reaffirmed the importance of greatly increasing trade between the United States and India, and highlighted the need for resolving barriers to free, fair, and reciprocal trade, which includes improving United Statescompanies’ market access in India.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor, as you know, to be with — because we were together just the other day in front of 59,000 people in the stadium, and that was a great day — Prime Minister Modi of India.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin talks to FOX Business’ Lou Dobbs about the current status of U.S-China trade negotiations.  Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer have been working together on the overall China issues.
Mnuchin delivers a deliberate explanation of the current status.

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Earlier today President Trump was introduced to by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to an enthusiastic crowed at a historic Houston event.   The introduction is the culmination of two-years of strategic geopolitical alignment within Trump’s new “Indo-Pacfic” strategy.
The introduction by Prime Minister Modi was effusive in praise for the partnership that has been developing ever since the 2017 global economic alignment began.  WATCH:

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Long before the term “Indo-Pacific” was used by the administration, the trade reset strategy within the ASEAN nations became clear. President Trump positioned the fulcrum of the strategy around a trilateral alliance consisting of Japan, India and the United States.
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Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor Department’s report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels. Also last week, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007. Then came the Philadelphia Fed’s index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue to expand.  And if that wasn’t too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was double expectations.  Main Street USA is very strong.

None of the economic data supports the almost month-long ‘recession narrative’ pushed by financial pundits and media narrative engineers; and next week the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth will be released. Attempting to retain the smallest remaining whiff of credibility, the Bloomberg economists now announce they’re cancelling the recession.
Yes, in a piece titled “Hold That Recession – U.S. Indicators are Trouncing Forecasts“, Bloomberg admits the economy doesn’t match their gloomy narrative:

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy is outperforming expectations by the most this year, offering a fresh rebuttal to last month’s resurgent recession fears fueled by the trade war and a manufacturing slump.
The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has reached an 11-month high after four indicators released Thursday, including existing home sales and jobless claims, each surpassed expectations.

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A highlight video of the state visit by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mrs. Jennifer Morrison.   Following video, the delayed transcript of the joint press conference.

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[Transcript of Joint Press Conference] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. Please. We had a spectacular morning and it’s an honor being with the Prime Minister and Mrs. Morrison. Thank you very much. Australia is a fantastic country and a brilliant ally.
We just spent a lot of time together with our representatives, and they get along very well and we’re doing a lot of deals. And we talked military. We talked trade. We talked about everything you can talk about. And we came to the same conclusion, I think, in every case.
But I just want to say it’s an honor having both of you here. Thank you very much. You have a truly great country and I don’t think we’ve ever had a better relationship than we have right now.
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For the past several weeks China has been hoping to divide the trade dispute into two tracks thereby separating trade issues related to U.S. national security.  Beijing wants, heck needs, the simple agricultural trade because they are food dependent and need that uninterrupted.  However, they are strongly opposed to a comprehensive trade reset.
Beijing wants to wait-out President Trump on the more substantive issues surrounding: intellectual property rights; forced transfer of IP and manufacturing secrets; non tariff barriers including limited access to China’s controlled markets; and state run company subsidies that lead to market dumping and saturation.
Along with avoiding legal compliance issues, China wants to carve-out the complex stuff from a simple trade agreement.
However, when asked today about the possibility of carving out a partial deal President Trump emphatically said: “NO”.  During a press conference with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, President Trump said:

“We’re looking for a complete deal, I’m not looking for a partial deal.  China has been starting to buy our agricultural product; if you noticed over the last week, and actually some very big purchases. But that’s not what I’m looking for, we’re looking for the big deal.

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Michael Pillsbury traveled to Hong Kong recently to help explain the goals and objectives of President Trump’s U.S-China trade position.  During an interview, Mr. Pillsbury warns Beijing interests not to interpret the current U.S. position as aggressive, because the dragon has yet to see the severe side to Trump’s position.

During an interview with the South China Morning Post, Pillsbury points out there are a great many more ways that President Trump is prepared to respond if the combative trade position from China remains hostile to any concessions.  This first option was their best option.  However, should they choose further trade conflict, President Trump will happily oblige.
CTH research on Trump’s outlook, vis-a-vis China, has led us to believe there is no upper limit to the economic weapons President Trump is willing to deploy; and considering that Pillsbury can be relied upon to deliver honest, accurate and deliberate remarks about the White House position, these warnings from a close advisor to the President should be weighted accordingly.

(South China Morning Post) – The United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, a key White House adviser said, adding that Washington has so far imposed only “low level tariffs” on the Asian giant.

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Fox News host Maria Bartiromo had Kevin McCarthy and Larry Kudlow on Fox Business to discuss the status of ratification for the USMCA agreement.   After McCarthy outlines the politics of Nancy Pelosi intentionally holding back the ratification vote, and states if the agreement is not passed prior to Thanksgiving it will not be done, Larry Kudlow follows up with a more optimistic outlook.

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Keep in mind, Speaker Pelosi doesn’t know that close trade followers are aware of her deal with Justin Trudeau to hold back on ratification in an blatantly political effort. Here’s Kevin McCarthy’s full interview.
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