There are trillions at stake. The current 7-4 decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit surrounds a May decision by the U.S. Court of International Trade. The original case concluded that President Trump exceeded his authority under the 1977 law he invoked to impose both the fentanyl trafficking tariffs and his worldwide tariffs, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). [SEE RULING HERE]

“We are not addressing whether the President’s actions should have been taken as a matter of policy. Nor are we deciding whether IEEPA authorizes any tariffs at all. Rather, the only issue we resolve on appeal is whether the Trafficking Tariffs and Reciprocal Tariffs imposed by the Challenged Executive Orders are authorized by IEEPA. We conclude they are not.”

It is obvious the Democrat appointed majority are tenuous in their position.  No one doubts the presidential power to declare a national emergency.  To wit, the ruling highlights a very nervous court with much of the language straddling the fence trying not give the impression they are interfering in Article II presidential powers to make foreign policy decisions.

Unelected judges restricting the power of the Executive Branch, and by extension restricting a President elected by the majority of the nations’ citizens to address a national emergency, is not a construct supported by the Supreme Court.  The six activist judges on the federal appeals court panel seemingly know this; however, the power of the political -and I would guess financial- pressure compels them.

The court deferred their ruling which will not take effect until Oct. 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.  President Trump responded via Truth Social.

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India is now facing a 50% import tariff against the majority of their goods (electronics and pharmaceuticals exempted). However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed not to yield to the pressure. Modi said the world was witnessing a “politics of economic selfishness.”

For approximately a decade many western countries including the U.S. have heaped effusive praise on India as corporations viewed the massive Indian population, the world’s largest democracy, as both workers and consumers.  However, after the western sanctions against Russia were delivered, India -a BRICS nation- began pulling back from western alignment and influence.

Western sanctions map against Russia (yellow = agree with USA).

What we are witnessing now is one of the ramifications of the U.S. forcefully putting an “us or them” aspect into the strategic economic relationship, where “them” is Russia.  Currently, India is not flinching.

One could make the argument that undeveloped regions in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) contain the majority of the valuable rare earth minerals and magnets the ‘western’ nations need for manufacturing.  BRICS has a pressure point to apply leverage, but no global trade currency, if the trade conflict escalates.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on Fox Business to discuss some very important current issues in the world of finance, banking and trade.

Bessent begins by answering questions about the U.S. government taking equity interests in companies that come to the U.S. for support.  Bessent then notes the potential for the Trump administration to construct a taxpayer stake in Fannie and Freddie, before the Treasury Secretary moves on to talk about the trade issues with India.  WATCH:

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The Federal Reserve Board announced on Friday that Adriana D. Kugler will step down from her position as governor of the Federal Reserve Board, effective August 8, 2025.

Dr. Kugler, who has served as a governor since September 13, 2023, submitted her letter of resignation to President Trump and will return to Georgetown University as a professor this fall. The text of the letter from Governor Kugler is below:

[SOURCE pdf]

President Trump will now get to appoint a replacement.

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Too funny.  The economic pretending is so strong almost every outlet leads the Gross Domestic Product news release by saying “better than expected.”  Duh!   The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the GDP date for the second quarter (Q2) and shows a 3.0% jump in economic growth.

We say “duh”, because it was an entirely predictable result.  Why, because imports are a deduction to the GDP equation and imports dropped 30.3% in the second quarter (Table 1, line 19).   We said this was going to happen because there was a surge of imported goods in the first quarter as companies tried to be proactive with orders in advance of tariffs.

That massive influx of imports made the Q1 GDP weak (-0.5%).  Conversely, with all those goods delivered in the first quarter, the products were not imported in Q2 and the GDP rebounded.  The lack of imports, ultimately the lack of deduction, resulted in a 5.18% positive change to the second quarter GDP (Table 2, line 47).

[Source, Table 2, Line 47]

But wait, the winning doesn’t stop there.  Remember, the Big Beautiful Bill just passed in July. That means fixed asset investment is likely to expand in Q3 because 100% expensing on capital investment was part of the BBB.

But wait, there’s more.  Annual wages spiked 4.4% — double the rate of inflation (2.1%).   That means people are growing their wage incomes twice as fast as prices are rising.  Real wage growth is back again!  Yes, REAL WAGE GROWTH.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hold a joint press conference in Stockholm after concluding the third-round of trade talks with Chinese officials.

The discussion and press availability covered U.S-China trade negotiations, economic cooperation and whether President Trump will meet Xi Jinping. Key moments include questions on tariffs, supply chains, and Beijing diplomacy. WATCH:

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Treasury Secretary Bessent notes as the U.S. economy continues strengthening, and as each trade deal with the U.K, Japan, ASEAN nations and Europe have cemented, the talks between the U.S. and China become more substantive.

With each global trade partner agreeing to terms of access to the USA market more pressure is naturally created on China to complete negotiations and affirm their position as supplier to the world’s largest market.

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Chopper Pressers are the best pressers. This morning as President Trump departs the White House for a trip to Scotland, the most transparent president in history stops to take questions and deliver remarks to the assembled press pool.

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President Trump states he is anticipating meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his visit to Turnberry, Scotland, and takes questions on a variety of subjects including, trade, dollar value, EU trade agreement, Russia/Ukraine, Iran nuclear ambitions, Gaza, Hamas, the Federal Reserve, the economy, President Obama’s immunity status, the ongoing review and investigation by DNI Tulsi Gabbard and more.

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The Japanese essentially did not want to face a 25% tariff on automobiles exported to the USA.  At the same time, they did not want to permit full USA access to several sectors of their market.  The solution is quite remarkable.

Japan agrees to be the bank, to essentially finance any national security priority of President Trump to the tune of $55o billion.  In return, Japan gets a 15% tariff on automobiles, and 10% return on the profit of the ¹business they finance in the U.S.  Japan is essentially purchasing a lower tariff rate.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made. Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits. This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it. Perhaps most importantly, Japan will open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things. Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%. This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explains:

EXAMPLE:  President Trump wants generic drug manufacturing in the USA.  U.S. company ‘Main Street Drugs’ agrees to build a $100 billion manufacturing plant.  Japan finances the building and company creation.  Main Street Drugs owns and operates the business, keeps 90% of the profits, Japan gets 10%.

Trump (USA) has $450 billion in financing left to spend on the next priority, perhaps a railroad connection or transit system.

Pretty cool, solution.

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We are approximately 10 days away from the baseline and reciprocal trade tariffs taking place on August 1, 2025.  The U.S. economy is strengthening; inflation is not a factor, and the existing tariffs are bringing in a tremendous amount of revenue.

The most difficult trade deal to make is with the European Union as Secretary Bessent notes.  It is unlikely that any trade agreement with the EU will be reached because the EU has all the benefits and no desire to lose their status (ie. Marshal Plan).

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White House Trade and Economic Advisor Peter Navarro takes a well deserved victory lap on the latest U.S. consumer sales news.  The Census Bureau report, yesterday, highlighted that consumer sales remain strong at +0.6% – significantly higher than all economists forecast [DATA HERE].

Retail sales growth is important, because approximately two-thirds of the U.S. GDP growth is driven by consumer sales.  With inflation low, retail sales high, and with a previously reported drop in U.S. imports, the ¹second quarter GDP is likely to be much stronger than anyone previously predicted.  Thus, Peter Navarro is leaning forward against the naysayers.

This is essentially a repeat of the 2017/2018 economic outcome from President Trump’s first term in office.  The tariffs, which are applied to the ‘cost’ side of the dynamic, are mostly being absorbed by major producing nations who are reliant upon export to the U.S. market.  Simultaneously, the tariffs are generating income – essentially exfiltrating foreign wealth and returning those funds to the USA; a complete reversal of the rust-belt dynamic.   WATCH:

What Peter Navarro outlines is the core of MAGAnomics.  This is also the baseline for our CTH assembly in support of economic nationalism, which is why we ended up in conflict with the Chamber of Commerce Republicans.

Tariffs are a tool to leverage reciprocal trade, and as long as nations like China continue taking measures to subsidize their exports, the tariffs simultaneously take wealth (those subsidies) from Beijing and return it to the USA.

This reality has always been the model we predicted would be successful for Americans, and I will remind everyone that ONLY DONALD TRUMP could deliver this MAGAnomic program.  Everything else, Epstein, Musk, etc. is chaff and countermeasures deployed by both Democrats and Republicans in an effort to take back control of the money flow.

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