Apologies in advance to our conservative Canadian friends; but the explainer here is regarding America-First trade and economics against the backdrop of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, Canada and Mexico’s alignment therein, the APEC Summit and rainbow socks.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Justin from Canada

Here’s why Canada and Mexico signing up to TPP is great news for the U.S., and couldn’t come at a better time for NAFTA round #5 on November 17th.  We don’t want TPP to collapse, because TPP ties the hands of Canada and Mexico to elements of trade that are based on collective interests. Their joining TPP provides the U.S. leverage in NAFTA.
Remember, Vietnam is exactly 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone.  At 7:450pm last evening in Vietnam (local time), at the last minute, Rainbow Socks backed out of the signing the TPP framework (explained here).  Twelve hours later, at 7:20am (local), the AP reported the agreement was “back on” with “a compromise”:

DANANG, Vietnam (AP) — The Latest on the summit of 21 Pacific Rim economies in Vietnam (all times local): 7:20 a.m. – Trade ministers say they have reached a basic agreement on a Pacific Rim trade pact without the United States.

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President Donald Trump delivered an defiant opening speech at the 2017 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Da Nag, Vietnam earlier today. Speaking to an Asia-Pacific audience consisting of over 400 top corporate CEO’s, international leaders, and key heads-of-state from the region, President Trump outlined his expectation for trade relationships with ALL member states.
Trump began by walking through a list of the primary regional nations, praising each for their history and culture and then highlighting their modern success and advancement in economics and trade.  Then President Trump shifted to economics and national security; delivering a strong and deliberate message that the era of unfair trade practices, and one-sided trade deals, with the U.S. was over.

…”We can no longer tolerate these chronic trade abuses, and we will not tolerate them. […] that is why I am here today. […] The current trade imbalance is not acceptable. […] From this day forward, we will compete on a fair and equal basis. We are not going to let the United States be taken advantage of anymore.”…

As noted by a tuned-in observer of the tone in delivery.  President Trump’s delivery to the audience was as bold and defiant as his presentation at the Al Smith dinner in 2016.  No punches were pulled, no ambiguity in motive. Trump dropped the atomic sledgehammer of economic truth upon the increasingly nervous audience. It was spectacular.  WATCH:

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[TRANSCRIPT] PRESIDENT TRUMP: What an honor it is to be here in Vietnam — in the very heart of the Indo-Pacific — to address the people and business leaders of this region.
This has already been a remarkable week for the United States in this wonderful part of the world. Starting from Hawaii, Melania and I traveled to Japan, South Korea, and China, and now to Vietnam, to be here with all of you today.
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United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was interviewed by Fox News host Laura Ingraham ahead of his important participation in the Asia trip.
Within the interview Ambassador Lighthizer shows his wolverine attitude toward the ongoing trade deals and his role within the larger geopolitical strategy of the Trump Doctrine.  There’s solid, affirming and unwavering economic insight within this interview.
Interestingly Lighthizer mentions the national security aspects inherent within the administration’s economic trade strategy. He details how his role, within the larger policy, is to focus intensely on achieving the best ‘America-First‘ trade deal possible. “Killers”.
Secretary Wilbur Ross (commerce), Secretary Steven Mnuchin (treasury), Secretary Rex Tillerson (state) and Secretary James Mattis (defense) then collate the outcome and ultimately President Trump makes the final decision.  Working in concert, together they map how to use the leverage within the Lighthizer’s deals to achieve national security objectives.

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Those who are following the Trump Doctrine, strategic U.S. geopolitical alliances, and the bigger part of the big picture for how President Trump and the administration are positioning the U.S. economy toward lessening ties with China, will note the significance of this speech and the content therein.  The media will remain oblivious to it.
The Trump Doctrine surrounds modern international economic engagement only possible with a president who is not beholden to the multinational corporations and multinational banks who occupy lobbying offices on K-Street in Washington DC.  A key component of the approach is the ability to build relationships which can be leveraged for America-First interests with national economic partners aligned in common cause.
Under the Trump Doctrine, India is a strategic economic counter-weight to remove the leverage China has created for the past 20+ years.  Nothing that has happened within the strategic approach of President Trump happens accidentally.  Even the positioning of U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is a part of this dynamic lost on almost everyone except a few who understand the insight of a president who has thought through every angle for years prior to taking office.
Small, seemingly obscure, details are part of the big picture; nothing is without design.  Understanding this principle helps to assemble the framework for this speech by Secretary Rex Tillerson.  WATCH:

“China, while rising alongside India, has done so less responsibly, at times undermining the international, rules-based order even as countries like India operate within a framework that protects other nations’ sovereignty.”

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NAFTA Round #4 negotiations have been ongoing and resulting in little progress on the serious issues surrounding the three nation trade pact.
Word from behind the scenes, and off-the-record, finds several insiders with the opinion that the decision by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbying group to conflict with President Trump and the U.S. trade team has backfired.
U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue made the decision to align in common cause with Canada and Mexico, against the interests of the U.S., and go public with his attacks against the U.S. negotiating team, the administration and President Trump personally.
Following the confrontational approach by the largest DC lobbying group, the U.S. team asked Canada to take their protectionist trade restrictions off the Dairy and Poultry sectors.  Canada was adamant they will never leave their agriculture unprotected, and rejected any consideration of open trade discussion toward those sectors.
The U.S. is standing firm on three elements that Mexico and Canada are dead-set against:
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President Trump’s MAGAnomic Main Street policy initiatives surround a very basic set of principles.  To add wealth to the middle class you: A.) increase wages, and B.) lower the cost of living.
Increasing wages is the long-term economic outcome from America-First business and corporate manufacturing policies (Secretary Wilbur Ross), in combination with fiscal policies (Secretary Mnuchin).   Subsequently, within his economic agenda, President Trump visibly engages an extraordinary amount of effort on both Commerce and Treasury.
However, there’s a part of the plan for reestablishing middle-class wealth that also comes from lowering the cost of living (high consumables).  That’s where EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt intersects with Ross and Mnuchin as Pruitt works to lower energy costs.

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Lowering energy costs has an exponential benefit to the overall economy.  Not only does it drive down the cost of domestic highly consumable products, but it also binds the building blocks of the manufacturing and production sector.  Lower energy costs offset higher wages on products manufactured for export and helps keep the U.S. competitive.
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President Trump tweeted this morning while Secretary Rex Tillerson is in China meeting with Xi Jinping about what to do with North Korea. ….or put another way: Tillerson chats about Rocket-boy consequences with big Panda while the sound of a lion roaring is heard over the background of the bamboo forest.
If you’ve been following along, Trump/Tillerson creating the need for ‘Magnanimous Panda’ is actually quite fun to watch unfold.

President Trump will never use the U.S. military to solve this regional issue.  The national security strategy is based entirely on economics (leverage) and diplomacy (ownership).  President Trump’s words and rhetoric against Kim Jong-un, and the response from Jong-un in kind toward President Trump, creates the foundation of a need for magnanimous panda to step in.
Remember, Beijing doesn’t want to take ownership of DPRK.  China prefers to retain influence over behavior, they are the enablers, but not be directly responsible for the enforcement of any agreement which comes with attached consequences (economic punishment) for DPRK violations.
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Ahead of an upcoming trip by President Donald Trump, and against the backdrop of economic sanctions by Trump/Mnuchin and the U.N. toward North Korea, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson works on the “Magnanimous Panda” strategy within the Trump Doctrine.
The ‘Big Picture’ goal is for China to accept responsibility, publicly, for spearheading the denuclearizing program within an established “six party talk” framework.  China ultimately becoming the guarantor of a denuclearized DPRK, and President Trump stroking the Panda Fur (praise) while simultaneously controlling the amount of bamboo in the Beijing forest.  So far, things are proceeding swimmingly.

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping offered warm words for U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday, calling him a friend and saying he expected Trump’s visit to China in November would be “wonderful”.

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President Donald Trump delivers a speech outlining the latest tax reform plan to an audience at the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington, D.C.

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[Transcript – 11:41 A.M. EDT] THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. (Applause.) Thank you very much. Taking up a lot of television time, but that’s okay. (Laughter.) Thank you all very much. It’s great to be here with the National Association of Manufacturers. And I especially want to thank your president, Jay Timmons, and your chairman, David Farr, along with all of the members of Congress that are here today. And they’re working hard, I will tell you that.
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Well, well, well…. According to a breaking State Department release T-Rex will be headed to Beijing the day after tomorrow (Thursday) through Sunday.   Yup, everything proceeding swimmingly.  A very predictable plan, for an intensely smart geopolitical strategy.  Walking in a Winner Wonderland !

STATE DEPT – U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will travel to Beijing September 28 – October 1 to meet with senior Chinese leaders. Secretary Tillerson will discuss a range of issues, including the President’s planned travel to the region, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and trade and investment. Secretary Tillerson’s visit to China reaffirms the Administration’s commitment to further broaden and enhance U.S. economic and security interests in the Asia-Pacific region.

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