“Magnanimous Panda” – China’s Envoy Worried About “Dangerous Rhetoric”…

For those who have followed the months-long strategy of President Trump toward North Korea and China, the latest words from China fall squarely into place. Unfortunately for those who have not followed the approach, the consequential nuance will be lost.

What is happening publicly is entirely predictable when we accept what is happening privately, against the backdrop of activity that has taken place since February of this year.

Remember the Trumpian objective of creating the “Magnanimous Panda” as you read these latest words from Beijing:

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Reacting to remarks by North Korea’s foreign minister on Monday, China’s U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi told Reuters the escalating rhetoric between North Korea and the United States was getting too dangerous and the only solution was negotiations.

North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters that President Donald Trump had declared war on North Korea and Pyongyang reserves the right to take countermeasures, including shooting down U.S. bombers even if not in its air space.

“We want things to calm down. It’s getting too dangerous and it’s in nobody’s interest,” Liu told Reuters. “We certainly hope that (the United States and North Korea) will see that there is no other way than negotiations to solve the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula … The alternative is a disaster.”  (more)

Within the larger objective of using economics to secure U.S. national security interests, ie. “The Trump Doctrine”, we have noted and outlined the specific elements needed as President Trump pushes ownership of the DPRK toward Beijing.

China cannot win the economic battle within the narrow space President Trump has created.  Specifically because the goal is to leave China no room, the latest sanctions from President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin were directed toward DPRK enablers, and not North Korea itself.

In essence the U.N. sanctions North Korea (Kim Jong-un), but Trump/Mnuchin take the sanctioning economic squeeze directly to Beijing by targeting those who do business with North Korea.  The difference is very visible yet the subtlety and effectiveness of the approach is lost on most Asian observers.

China doesn’t want to own the DPRK outcome.  They want plausible deniability in any confrontation.  However, N-Korea is a de-facto economic province of China under the guiding control and authority of communist Beijing.

In order to create the outcome where China accepts ownership of the DPRK, and leads negotiations therein, there has to be a value for Beijing, a carrot, toward the larger international community.  Considering the decades-long Chinese obfuscation of that role and responsibility, Trump needs to keep narrowing the diplomatic space until China has no options.  That’s where the magnanimous panda strategy comes into play.

Trump will never use the U.S. military to solve this regional issue.  The national security strategy is based on economics and diplomacy.  President Trump’s words and rhetoric against Kim Jong-un, and the response from Jong-un in kind toward President Trump, creates the foundation of a need for magnanimous panda to step in.

This year Beijing is holding it’s communist party national referendum, the Communist Party Congress, mid October.   This meeting happens every five years.

Beijing (AsiaNews) – The Central Committee’s Political Bureau (Politburo) yesterday chose 18 October for the opening of the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress.

The 200-strong Central Committee is expected to ratify the date when it meets for its last plenum on 11 October.

“[The congress] will formulate an action plan and set out major policy direction that will meet the demands of the era,” the Politburo said in a statement.

The congress, which is held every five years, is expected to re-elect Xi Jinping as party general secretary for a second five-year term. Xi is likely to get his own political philosophy included in the party’s constitution, placing him on a par with Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and others. (read more)

It is widely anticipated that Xi Jinping will gain more control and power over the affairs of China on economics and domestic policy.

Remember, it would be against Trump’s interests if the entire global and geopolitical community understood what was happening, as he attempts to create an outcome where China takes responsibility for North Korea.

So the question becomes, how will we know when President Trump has won in the economic and national security challenge?   Well, first let’s look at the geopolitical landscape and the known and identified calendar to view the goal timeline:

♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.

♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year.  Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.

So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.

::::smiling:::::

Yup.

Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Narendra Modi hugs.

President Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship.  China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Ballywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.

Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.

Strategery.

::::still smiling::::

So, if this strategy works, and there’s every indication everything is falling into place, we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly boxed-in China.

China will structure the DPRK talking points to set up the meetings.  This is a part of how China is allowed to save face, against a backdrop of Trump/Mnuchin economic pressure, and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.

The six party talks will be essentially a Marshall Plan of sorts for North Korea.

Japan, South Korea, The United States, China, Russia and North Korea will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy and reducing tension.  That tension is what President Trump is currently stimulating to keep the pressure on Beijing ahead of the Communist Congress.

With success, President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.

Meanwhile, well behind the scenes, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to representatives who all line up with their requests for terms of economic discussion.

President Trump’s golf partner Shinzo Abe will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along.  South Korea and partnered ASEAN nations will also see a benefit. The only real negotiations will be between the U.S. Russia and China.  Russia will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again (affluence) and increase their geopolitical influence; While China will be negotiating to retain as much of the $350 billion trade surplus as possible, and retain their one-road/one-belt viability.

The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; China accepts responsibility to denuclearize under carefully negotiated terms, and against the backdrop of economic punishment for duplicity, and publicly Big Panda promises to the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein.

Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.

♦SHORT TERM – When the denuclearization terms are finalized; only then will President Trump outline the broad parameters of a U.S./China trade relationship based on new renegotiated trade policies.  The mood of that stage within the strategy will be based on the cooperative behavior of China in the next 60 days.

♦MEDIUM TERM – Also, when Trump gets to that latter stage, China will be facing a different global economic landscape because President Trump and India’s Prime-Minister Modi have already formulated the outlines of a joint economic partnership.

♦LONG TERM – Economic leverage against communist China to remove the larger geopolitical threat they represent to the U.S. (and the international community) is gained by positioning India as a replacement for U.S. trade/commerce, and ASEAN partners as continental benefactors, with favorable access to the U.S. market, within bi-lateral trade deals.

Readers will note this bi-lateral strategic approach, in economic depth and breadth, also significantly reduces the internal economic benefits of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) amid partner nations.  That diluted outcome is not accidental.

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This entry was posted in ASEAN, Big Government, China, Communist, Economy, India, Japan, media bias, President Trump, Russia, Secretary of State, Secretary Tillerson, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, United Nations, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

42 Responses to “Magnanimous Panda” – China’s Envoy Worried About “Dangerous Rhetoric”…

  1. H.R. says:

    I love that statement, “Donald Trump has declared war on North Korea.”

    No he hasn’t. If President Trump actually declared war on North Korea, the sole NK survivor would definitely know it.

    Liked by 6 people

    • mimbler says:

      And technically haven’t we been at war with NK for over 60 years? IIRC we are just in a cease fire period.

      Liked by 6 people

      • SWOhio says:

        Well, as I remember it, war was never declared. It was always considered a ‘police action’ although many American servicemen would argue that.

        I can’t help comparing NK with a tick on the back of a dog. It has no idea how tiny it is, and if it carries Lyme disease, it needs to be eradicated.

        Rocketman has no clue what the US action against a flea like him will actually mean. He hunkers down in his spacious bunker thinking up horrible tortures for his citizens – and his relatives. What a guy!

        Liked by 7 people

        • cdquarles says:

          There is no such thing as an undeclared war in our system. If Congress funded it, Congress declared it even if they didn’t pass a separate resolution stamped “War Declaration”.

          Liked by 2 people

          • RG says:

            Our uniiparty congress has become….as my Dad used to say, “as useless as teats on a boar hog.”
            Expect nothing from them and they will deliver hugely every time. Did anyone really think they were going to do anything about Obamacare this last go around. It was something like “Custer’s Last Stand.” Our own DJT didn’t even acknowledge it publicly. Let the court jesters folly while the world goes round and round.

            Like

      • cdquarles says:

        We have and we are still in the armistice period. This is America’s longest war.

        Liked by 2 people

  2. mimbler says:

    PDJT and his people are doing a masterful job, made all the more difficult by the weakness of the people preceding him.
    NK is acting as if they can act crazy enough to get us to back down and send them their payoff money, but China appears to have correctly assessed PDJT’s resolve,
    Mike

    Liked by 9 people

  3. sobriquet4u says:

    Thanks to Sundance…this “Padawan” is still learning.

    Liked by 6 people

  4. Minnie says:

    The steps, as structured, are beyond diplomatic.

    Trumpian, indeed.

    The one “however”, this is all contingent on China reigning in the dangerously delusional Fat Man until the plan comes to fruition.

    A mentally unstable person is totally unpredictable. Rocket Man is a lunatic itching to launch.

    Although he has been rather quiet since last weekend’s “earthquake”.

    It will be a very long few months.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. fleporeblog says:

    I absolutely agree SD! I also think their One Belt, One Road Initiative is critical to China’s survival both economically and more importantly to save the lives of the 1.7 billion Chinese that live in their country. China is in a terrible situation in terms of natural resources especially clean water. How can the Chinese push their One Road, One Belt Initiative throughout Asia, Africa and the ME if they are seen to be the hand that holds the trigger in NK. No one will trust them for one minute.

    Also the fact that India and Japan are considering countering the One Road, One Belt Initiative must be scaring China to DEATH! They realize that our President and President Modi of India are really good friends that have a deep admiration for each other. They also realize that the Indians have the capacity to create new products the same way the US can. The last thing they want to see is our President turn his entire focus towards India to cut off China. Their economy will crumble within a year or so.

    Ivanka’s visit to India at the end of November is HUGE! The fact her and Jared cancelled their visit to China in September is also HUGE. I truly believe that we will see the end of the NK issue begin in a few weeks and be done with by the beginning of the New Year.

    At that point, our President will turn his full and undivided attention towards IRAN!

    Liked by 7 people

    • chojun says:

      It’s interesting to note that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which is set up to finance the one belt/one road initiative, has a huge membership among European nations. The One Belt/One Road is to become a Globalist mega-logistics network ultimately aggregating all downstream products and services as they funnel into the EU and the United States, 2 of the largest economies in the World, with China originating many of these products and services.

      Trump’s America First doctrine is *LITERALLY* (yes, I’m screaming here) a *NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVE*.

      Liked by 11 people

  6. missmarple2 says:

    I wonder if the national anthem controversy is playing into this, much like the air traffic controller strike did for Reagan.

    President Trump is demonstrating that when he says something, he means it. No apology, no backing down. Public opinion is behinds President Trump on this, and despite the media pearl clutching, the President moves forward.

    Liked by 12 people

  7. rashamon says:

    Ah, Sundance. That’s all I have to say, but worth repeating: Ah, Sundance.

    Liked by 7 people

  8. iamanamerican says:

    Good summary. There are couple of related matters that Sundance can elucidate further i.e (a) if US / India relationship is gaining momentum, Chicom wont sit tight- they will instigate regional unrest thru their comrades in Pakistan. How is this going to play out in the overall picture (b) Is India must gear up to be a replacement for China for those goods which we procure from them and its no longer H1B area or outsourcing of US jobs . Thanks,

    Like

  9. Daniel says:

    One thing consistent with China is its desire to expand. It takes over neighboring countries but cannot take over N.Korea because it is a well-defined country and it is still under dispute. If you doubt that, I’ll point out that China claims Okinawa for itself. How absurd is that?!

    On the other hand, “Out of control N.Korea” appears to require military intervention. If the US gets involved, we set up a base or several after the dust settles. If China makes a decisive move, THEY move in and expand their territories under the cover of making a decisive action in favor of global peace.

    Just a thought…

    Like

    • Paco Loco says:

      Okinawa is Japanese. I think you must mean Taiwan(formerely Formosa).

      Liked by 3 people

      • maiingankwe says:

        OT: You like geography don’t you? You helped me a bit earlier and I appreciated it. I knew where Chad was located I just always mix it up with the Congo or whatever name it is going by now. However, I did not know Boko Haram were in there as well. So again, thank you.

        I love geography too. Just a few minutes ago I was helping my 12 year old daughter study for a quiz on Africa. I so love helping her and her friends with geography and science, especially studying for tests.

        A few weeks ago I was taking her friends out one-on-one and collecting tree samples. They thought it was cool a mom knew so much about trees and their Latin names without having to look at their book. Or they might have thought I was cool ’cause I took them out for ice cream afterwards where I could test them on all of the information we had gone over.

        It’s amazing how smart these kids are and they don’t even realize it or believe it. Not in my house though. They are all going to get good grades by the time I’m done with them, except for math of course. I can’t figure out the new ways of doing it. I throw them to my husband for that, poor things. He’s really smart in math, but he has a tendency on ribbing and teasing any person or pet in his vicinity that he likes.

        Anyways, I know I can come to you with any of my future geography questions, and I really appreciate that.
        Stay smiling and have an amazing day,
        Ma’iingankwe

        Like

  10. jbrickley says:

    I think Sundance is right, Trump and his cabinet have a very big plan and they are executing a well thought out strategy and it’s working rather well. China will be blamed for DPRK tantrums and violence.

    No one wants war. Its bad for all parties involved. But I know, if General Mattis is ordered to attack the DPRK, he isn’t going to play around and I know that Trump would take a hands off approach telling his generals to do their jobs to the best of their ability. There will be no arm chair quarterbacking from this administration. The gloves will come off. The military excels at killing the enemy and breaking stuff and that is precisely what they will do. The use of overwhelming force will be fully authorized. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the media would be shut out except for carefully orchestrated press releases and very brief briefings.

    Liked by 4 people

  11. Mk says:

    Or if rocket man continues to launch missles and threaten to shoot our bombers in international airspace, Trump can remove North Korea from the earth nullifing any influence China has while serving notice to Iran. Move trade from China to India and leave Panda with nothing.

    While we can cringe at the horror of that statement do we really want to drag 25 million people into the 21st century? It would be 2 down and one to go sorting out the axis of evil.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. G. Combs says:

    BACKGROUND:
    I have already posted but it fleshes out the economic problems for China.

    Gross domestic product, current prices (US$, billions)
    1980 ——- 1990 ——- 2000 —— 2011 —— 2016
    202.46 .. 390.28 … 1198.48 .. 6988.47 .. 11779.98
    Note that the GDP of China is now 30 times what it was in 1990s when they bribed Bill Clinton to betray the USA.

    Gross domestic product per capita, current prices (US$)
    1980 ——– 1990 ——- 2000 —— 2011 —- 2016
    205.12 …. 341.35 …. 945.6 …. 5183.86 … 8522.86

    Volume of imports of goods and services (% change)
    1980 —— 1990 —– 2000 —- 2011 —- 2016
    17.38 … -16.88 …. 24.8 …. 16.52 …. 14.78
    Note the NEGATIVE in 1990.
    The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 leading to the killing of at least several hundred unarmed students. The USA responded with economic sanctions by the United States and it’s allies. Clinton, after receiving campaign contributions from China in 1995, rewarded China with Most Favored Nation Status, WTO membership and access to our technology, as well as nuclear and military secrets.
    ………

    Also of note as Sundance and others have said:
    1. China is NOT creative. The culture punishes creativity and has for thousands of years.

    2. China is known for stealing patents. The Chinese military hacks universities, corporations and military around the world.

    3. In today’s world, stealing ideas does no good without trained experts. To get around this China allows western companies to come in and use their ‘cheap labor’ do on the job training and then kicks them out after china builds a copy of the factory. Boeing is the next company up for this known Chinese maneuver.

    Finally there is this recent news:
    “Candace Marie Claiborne is a U.S. State Department employee who possesses a Top Secret security clearance and allegedly failed to report her contacts with Chinese foreign intelligence agents who provided her with thousands of dollars of gifts and benefits,”
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/state-department-employee-arrested-and-charged-concealing-extensive-contacts-foreign-agents

    Not to mention Hillary left documents in her hotel room in China when Sec of State.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. duchess01 says:

    Now, I know where that p-pool nincompoop got the idea President Trump declared ‘war’ on NK – I could not believe my ears – the kiddies don’t do their research – * Sigh *

    Interesting how China points the finger at the US and NK verbal (rhetorical) confrontation – as if they are innocent of enabling their errant man-child – who is saber-rattling against his neighbors –

    However, if they play their Mahjong Tiles right – they will be looked upon by the whole world as the ‘Magnanimous Peacemaking Panda’ – saving face while balancing their Yin/Yang duality.

    I hope and pray President Trump and the Trump Team triumph in their plan to settle the sandbox – we can all be proud we have a team that does not fold in the face of controversy – is able to negotiate on our terms – for the benefit of our country – and our people! It is about time we WON!

    Liked by 4 people

  14. TwoLaine says:

    And what has Congress done during this entire period?

    The usual. Nothing.

    Liked by 2 people

  15. A2 says:

    If you want to know what Xi Jinping and China’s influence peddling and propaganda arm, thus their political, economic and power goals has been and will continue to be in the future read the report below.

    It focuses on New Zealand (and Australia by extension) and has relevance for ASEAN nations as well. It is particularly salient because both countries are members of the US security umbrella (Five Eyes), but equally applies to the US where these efforts are already embedded.

    I highly recommend it. You will then understand what the US is facing vis-a-vis China.

    Magic Weapons: China’s political influence activities under Xi Jinping . Professor Anne-Marie Brady
    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/magic-weapons-chinas-political-influence-activities-under-xi-jinping

    I have attached a news article that shows that Australia is waking up to the threat and is looking to adapt US laws on foreign influence to their situation.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-considers-new-laws-cracking-down-on-chinese-spying-in-australia-20170921-gymazc.html

    Liked by 2 people

  16. jeans2nd says:

    Long term strategic thinking.
    Talk about timing…

    Liu, Tillerson to co-chair China-US social, people-to-people dialogue
    “China and the US will hold their first social and people-to-people dialogue on September 28 in Washington DC…China would like to work with the US toward a positive outcome from the dialogue, Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong added.”

    “The meeting is one of four high-level dialogues established during the Mar-a-Lago meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Florida in April.”
    http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1068190.shtml

    Fake News will not even make the connection.

    Today’s “Daily Quotes” from the Global Times –
    “There is no reason for India to disdain China, a stronger and better-organized country. Instead, India should learn a lesson from the Doklam standoff and rid itself of incomprehensible smugness.”
    well, alrighty then. how do ya spose China really feels?

    Like

  17. God I LOVE this site. @Sundance… you think I can take you out to dinner when I visit my dad in FLA next year (he just bought a house)? You helped me win THOUSANDS of dollars betting the God Emperor in November… it would be an honor buddy 🙂

    Like

  18. theworld says:

    Sorry Sundance, I love your site when it comes to internal US politics, but you have got the whole NKorea/China matter totally wrong. India is irrelevant in this matter, and Gordon Chang is laughed at here in Asia for being wrong every time on China. No war will happen because both sides are too frightened over the consequences, and the US and the rest of the world will have to live with a nuclear armed NKorea, just like they had to with Russia and China. America, with its widespread corruption and excessive warmongering simply cannot contain China- it cannot even put its own house in order, how does it expect to deal with China? Sanction Chinese Banks? Wait until American banks get sanctioned by China. Tariffs? They will just cause massive losses for all the US companies manufacturing in China. Cannot use the US dollar? Go ahead. Who is gonna buy your debt, then? A trillion dollars owned by China, right? China and Russia have already started the process of dedollarization. Both countries have their own SWIFT system and soon oil contracts will be traded in Yuan and convertible to Gold. Nobody likes to even borrow in US dollars anymore, even with the dollar sliding down into nothing. The US cannot control the world anymore, either militarily or economically. The threats to do this and that to China sound much like Trump and Kim insulting each other- all sound and fury(or chaff), but actually meaning nothing.

    Like

  19. Michael says:

    Robert Herein wrote many years ago about the “Chinese half” of Australia.
    I wonder if this isn’t where the real action is taking place.
    Australia is rich in raw materials including gold.
    China has been buying Australian mines for many years.
    Will Oz put a stop to it knowing how it will hurt their own economy?
    Has the USA put a stop to Chinese acquisition?

    Like

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