Media reports of Agustin Carstens resignation as chief of Mexico’s central bank have left MSM pundits and even business analysts scratching their heads. It appears no-one has any idea why Carstens is leaving… well, almost no-one.

The non-discussed story is the hidden story that has been visible yet kept quiet for over five years. In essence, what Carstens knows, and what only Carstens knows, is the scope and scale of Mexico’s economic (central finance bank) dependency on the outflow of dollars, hidden U.S. money.
Early this year, it was discussed –for the first time– that effective in 2015 Mexican Remittances exceeded the scale and scope of Mexico’s entire oil and energy export sector. The single-year guesstimate was approximately $25 billion.

Remittances sent home by Mexicans working outside the country surpassed petroleum revenues in 2015 for the first time. There was a 4.75% increase in money sent from abroad, most of which comes from the U.S., to total US $24.8 billion last year, up from $23.6 billion in 2014, said the Bank of México.
The bank said it was the first time remittances had totaled more than petroleum revenues since it began tracking them in 1995. Oil revenues last year totaled $23.4 billion. (read more)

However, that guesstimate only measures wire transfers (individual to individual – Western Union money services). That measure doesn’t include bank to bank transfers, nor does it account for direct transfers of capital via cash, personal check, money order or banker cheque. In essence, the estimation is severely understated.
An honest evaluation of all possible currency transfer streams puts the outflow well over $100 billion, well over. Truthfully, no-one can even comprehend the scale or scope of the peso dependency based on the dollar imports. It’s an immeasurable quantity known only to someone who would have access to data, like Mr. Carstens.
But wait, it doesn’t simply stop there.  In addition to the direct import of dollars propping up the activity around the central bank, the use of fraudulent U.S. tax returns by Mexican Nationals is jaw dropping.

2012 INDIANAPOLIS – Inside his central Indiana office, a longtime tax consultant sits at his desk, shaking his head in disbelief.
“There is not a doubt in my mind there’s huge fraud taking place here,” he said, slowly flipping through the pages of a tax return.
The tax preparer does not want you to know his name for fear of reprisal, but he does want you to know about a nationwide problem with a huge price tag. He came to 13 Investigates to blow the whistle.
“We’re talking about a multi-billion dollar fraud scheme here that’s taking place and no one is talking about it,” he said. The scheme involves illegal immigrants — illegal immigrants who are filing tax returns. (read much more)

Add it all up,… then add in the fact that 80% of all Mexican exports are destined to the United States… then sit back and attempt to quantify the scale and scope of the Mexican dependence on U.S. dollars exported…. then consider this construct evaporating with a new Trump administration and accompanying policies…. and you’ll quickly find out why the guy charged with administering the Mexican monetary system is bailing out STAT.

Mexico City (AFP) – Mexico’s central bank chief Agustin Carstens resigned Thursday, officials said, sending the peso on its latest plunge since Donald Trump won the US presidential election last month.
Carstens, who had compared Trump with a maximum Category Five hurricane because of his tough stance toward Mexico, will step down on July 1 next year, the Banco de Mexico said in a statement.

[…] Mexico has found itself on the receiving end of some of Trump’s most virulent rhetoric.

The Republican billionaire launched his election campaign attacking Mexican immigrants as “criminals” and “rapists” and vowing to build a wall on the southern US border.

Markets are nervous about the effect of Trump’s protectionist policies, including his vows to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, make Mexico pay for the proposed wall and block remittances sent home by immigrants.

Trump takes office on January 20th 2017.  Analysts say the peso is also affected by the prospect of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later this month.

– Plunging peso –  The central bank slashed the country’s economic growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 in the aftermath of the US election.  The peso fell by nearly 10 percent following Trump’s November 8 election win.

That drove the bank on November 17 to raise the key interest rate by half a percentage point to tame inflation and curb market volatility.

Despite the rate hike, “financial markets displayed negative behavior… and the Mexican peso has depreciated around 17 percent this year, making it the most depreciated currency among a wide group of emerging countries,” the central bank said in a statement Thursday.

“The balance of risks has worsened given the possibility of measures that could obstruct foreign trade and investment.”  (read more)