If the U.S. were to exit NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), the price you pay for most foodstuff at the grocery store would drop 10% in the first quarter and likely drop 20% or more by the end of the first year. Here’s why:
Approximately a decade ago the U.S. Dept of Agriculture stopped tracking, and reporting, U.S. consumer food prices. The food sector joined the ranks of fuel and energy in no longer being measured to track inflation and backdrop Fed monetary policy. Not coincidentally this was simultaneous to U.S. consumers seeing massive inflation in the same sector.

There are massive international corporate and financial interests who are inherently at risk from President Trump’s “America-First” economic and trade platform. Believe it or not, President Trump is up against an entire world economic establishment.
When you understand how trade works in the modern era you will understand why the agents within the system are so adamantly opposed to U.S. President Trump.
The biggest lie in modern economics, willingly spread and maintained by corporate media, is that a system of global markets still exists.
It doesn’t.
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Well, that didn’t take long.  About a decade ago we needed a phrase to describe a very specific set of republican senators, thus originated the term “Decepticons”.
Decepticons are different from traditional ‘establishment’ types in that they are a cloistered club, a sub-set of the upper-tier within the GOPe, and they protect their exclusive position because of the payments and benefits they receive from an individual lobbyist, Tom Donohue.

Tom Donohue is the President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the largest single lobbying group in all of Washington DC.   Donohue represents the interests of massive financial institutions and multinational corporations.  Donohue receives hundreds of millions from his corporate conglomerates; and he controls the distribution of tens-of-millions toward individual senators on capitol hill who agree to uphold those interests.
A ‘Decepticon’ will NEVER break ranks with the Chamber. EVER.  Regardless of the Chamber position.  That character trait is what makes them uniquely “Decepticons.”

WASHINGTON DC – Senate Republicans are growing frustrated with what they see as a lack of clear direction in President Trump’s trade agenda, which they warn is hurting U.S. exporters.
Republican members of the Senate Finance Committee vented their concerns in a recent meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

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PART I – As the year winds down there will be lots of reviews of all things political. Lists of shifts and outlined accomplishments will be compiled to either show the advances or declines depending on tribal affiliation of the pundit.
However, not many people ever ask the questions behind the “why”.  Why is there so much opposition to President Trump?

In the larger analysis, Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) proposition is a daily reminder that citizen inspired government can eliminate the decades-long notion of politics as a profession.
There are hundreds-of-thousands of people within the institutional system known as politics. Each member carving out a specialty and selling their expertise as necessary within the opaque organization known as government. From city council, through state legislature and into federal representation, the primary selling point of each participating member is to declare their operational skill within the institution.
Heck, the professional political enterprise is so accepted as ordinary you can even go to college and earn a degree in how to be a politician. Why?
Boil down government to its most basic of institutional objectives and the entire premise is about operating common systems to the benefit of the aggregate assembly. The only thing that changes is the scale of the assembled constituency, local, state or federal.
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USTR Robert Lighthizer is attending the World Trade Organization (WTO) summit in Argentina.

[…] Ahead of the meeting, the United States blocked efforts to draft a joint statement emphasizing the “centrality” of the global trade system and the need to aid development. Its opposition has raised concerns that the WTO will not be able to accomplish even modest goals, such as addressing fishing and agricultural subsidies, at the conference. (Reuters)

The Ambassador’s opening remarks to the conference are below and include Lighthizer rightly informing the WTO that the Trump administration believes they have strayed far away from trade issues and are now, essentially, uni-focused on litigation.  He’s right.

[Transcript] “I would like to start by thanking the government of Argentina for hosting MC11, and Minister Malcorra, Director General Azevedo, and their staffs for their excellent work. We appreciate all the effort over many months that go into creating a conference of this magnitude.
In the brief time I have, I would like to make a few basic points.
First, the WTO is obviously an important institution. It does an enormous amount of good, and provides a helpful negotiating forum for Contracting Parties.  But, in our opinion, serious challenges exist.
Second, many are concerned that the WTO is losing its essential focus on negotiation and becoming a litigation-centered organization. Too often members seem to believe they can gain concessions through lawsuits that they could never get at the negotiating table. We have to ask ourselves whether this is good for the institution and whether the current litigation structure makes sense.
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Go through the archives and you’ll note a strategy unfolding that few, including us, could fully conceptualize when it first appeared.  Way back when candidate Trump first began to put his economic plans into platform outlines the subtle signature was there, but few were paying attention.
In order to reverse three decades of middle-class economic erosion, there were indicators that Trump’s strategy was a radical change in approach.  In essence the strategy was to split the economic policy into two areas and sequence the policy: highly-consumable goods (first) and durable goods (second).
Both product sectors have historically been viewed and approached by economic policy makers using a single financial strategy.  That singular approach gave rise to Wall Street benefiting and Main Street suffering.  Investment-class gained; middle-class suffered.
Trump outlined an approach –albeit vaguely– that was multidimensional.
His policy would first target multinational corporations, using the U.S. Treasury (Mnuchin) to weaken their grip and influence; simultaneously, he would use energy policy to drive down domestic prices in highly-consumable products (fuel, food, energy sector).  These sectors are not measured in fed inflation indexes; however, if lowered, these facets of consumer spending can also increase the amount of disposable income available for workers.
In essence, expand the economy by lowering the aggregate cost of living for the middle-class who live paycheck-to-paycheck.  Use monetary policy, fiscal policy and trade policy), to entice domestic investment and create jobs; and ultimately put upward pressure on wages.
That’s where we are now.
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There are many people taking notice of modern politics for the first time in their lives. There is also some confusion noticed between two groups who talk above and around each other. Two groups communicating from two entirely different sets of understanding.  Perhaps it is valuable to reset the larger frames of reference and provide clarity.
Many, heck, most people think when they vote for a federal politician -a representative- they are voting for a person who will go to Washington DC and write or enact legislation. This is the old-fashioned “schoolhouse rock” perspective based on decades past.
There is not a single congress person who writes legislation or laws.
In 2017 not a single member of the House of Representatives or Senator writes a law, or puts pen to paper to write out a legislative construct. This simply doesn’t happen.
Over the past several decades a system of constructing legislation has taken over Washington DC that more resembles a business operation than a legislative body. Here’s how it works right now.
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Multinational corporations and foreign governments spend hundreds of millions in Washington DC lobbying House and Senate politicians to retain trade positions.  It’s generally a legal bribery business where congressional representatives get rich by selling their votes to corporations and foreign governments.
Most of you already know the game: It’s a big club, and we -the working class- ain’t in it.
Fortunately for us, President Trump won the election without funding from the big corporations and lobbyists within the U.S. political system.  As such they cannot influence Trump’s decisions on economic policy matters and trade; and President Trump rarely invites them into the White House for policy meetings.
Specifically because the lobbyists don’t have access to the White House they rely on their purchased politicians in the House and Senate to influence the administration.

The multinational corporations and multinational banks are against the U.S. removing ourselves from multilateral trade agreements.  Those institutions rely on being able to manipulate the U.S. consumer market – EXPLAINED HERE.  The biggest influence agent, and by far the biggest lobbyist spender, is Tom Donohue, President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who represents the interests of the multinational corporations and Wall St.
So when you see these letters, knowing they are written by K-Street and transcribed onto legislative letterhead by political staffers, all you need to do is look at the signatures of the politicians and you can quickly identify who has been purchased by Tom Donohue:
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No-where is Trump Derangement Syndrome more evident than in the position of activist Democrats now swearing allegiance to multinational trade deals.
It was only a short time ago when Democrat activists and liberal politicians demanded U.S. withdrawal from TPP and openly discussed how NAFTA was disastrous for the U.S. worker. Both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton ran on pulling out of TPP etc.
Trump gets elected, actually fulfills a campaign promise and promptly pulls-out of TPP subsequently beginning to renegotiate NAFTA (with leveraged threats to withdraw); and suddenly, Democrats are joining arm-in-arm with corporate Republicans expressing their profound love for multinational trade deals. Go figure.

Round #5 of NAFTA renegotiation begins today in Mexico, absent any diplomatic trade ministers, and Canada announces their intent to use their access to congress as leverage over the executive branch in an attempt to work around President Trump:

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada will redouble its lobbying efforts in Congress to block any Trump administration move to pull the United States out of NAFTA, sources familiar with government strategy said, as talks to modernize the treaty run into trouble.
[…] Canadian officials say there is some considerable doubt as to whether Trump could pull out of NAFTA without approval from Congress, which makes lobbying its members so important.

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President Trump, together with Team USA, attend the 31st summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) today.  Paying close attention to who Trump is meeting with, along with the specific length of time allocated to each of the bilateral exchanges, helps to measure the value of each participant in the larger economic strategy.

In the morning (Manilla local time – 8pm U.S. Eastern), President Donald J. Trump will participate in a photo opportunity with President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines. The President will then participate in a welcome ceremony for the 31st ASEAN Summit.
Later in the morning, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull of Australia, followed by a bilateral meeting with President Duterte. In the afternoon, the President will attend the 5th U.S.-ASEAN Summit which commemorates the 40th anniversary of U.S.-ASEAN relations.
Later in the afternoon, the President will participate in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India followed by an embassy meet and greet.
Schedule below:
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The headline says -2.6%, but that’s the median.  The actual 2019 economic predictive modeling for Mexico is up to a 4% contraction if the U.S. cancels NAFTA.  The next round of NAFTA negotiations is scheduled for November 17th.

Additionally, these models are based on current trade economics and do not factor in the ramifications of Mexico joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership; and signing up to manufacturing sector agreements with Asian nations who can easily undercut even the low wage rates in Mexico based on average wealth.
The predictive models are run by various analysts paid by multinational business interests (corporations) to give advanced forecasting.  The results of the forecasts are used by multinational financial systems to determine the inherent value of future investment within Mexico.
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