National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the February jobs report, wage gains, stimulus from the European Central Bank, and President Trump’s ongoing trade confrontation with China.  [Solid Interview]
Chairman Kudlow notes some interesting dynamics at play including the recent National Household employment survey which showed 225k additional workers resulting in a drop in the overall unemployment statistics to 3.8%

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Additionally, the globalist-minded Wall Street crowd are disappointed that a March summit between Chairman Xi and President Trump has been scuttled. In aggregate terms, this cancellation backdrops USTR Robert Lighthizer’s strong granular demands of the Chinese delegation toward contractual enforcement terms. It is most likely Chairman Xi is not happy with the feedback he is receiving from his team. Too bad.
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The BLS employment report for February is very underwhelming with a mere 20,000 new jobs calculated and results that fall far short of expectations.  The recent private sector ADP payroll report showed 183,000 gains.  Despite the low reported jobs gains, the national unemployment number dropped to 3.8%.
Further confounding the low February BLS calculations, revisions to December and January were upward. December’s jobs were revised up from +222,000 to +227,000 (gaining 5k), and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000 (+7k). With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Job gains now average 186,000 per month over the last three months.
On a very positive note the calculated wage growth continues to reflect a tight labor market where employers are increasing wages well beyond inflation. “In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66, following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4 percent.” That is the strongest sustained wage growth in a decade.

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Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.
If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time. Your productivity measured in the last four loaves is higher.
Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation. Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.
From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%. In the fourth quarter of 2018 productivity was 1.9%.  That means total business output increased as more product was demanded from within the business operation. Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.  However, the most important numbers for MAGAnomics (Main Street USA) center around manufacturing and durable goods.
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White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has been a core member of the U.S. trade team providing a brutally honest perspective toward how specific trade engagements can directly benefit the U.S. economy and U.S. worker.
Navarro has gained a reputation as a trade hawk, specifically as it relates to confronting the one-sided trade schemes of China.  However, that encapsulation doesn’t accurately reflect Mr. Navarro’s value.
The Big Club hates him.  Yes, Navarro is hated and opposed by all the right people.  He might be rough around the edges, but he fights… for ‘America First‘.
Navarro is unapologetic in openly calling attention to the process where Wall Street, the multinationals (corporations and banks) have gained power and influence over politicians in Washington DC.  Wall Street funnels hundreds-of-millions to Tom Dohohue, President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Donohue controls an army of K-Street lobbyists who purchase politicians and sell their CoC created legislation.
Specifically because he calls attention to the brutal truth of a corrupt process, he has become the target of attacks from Wall Street’s beneficiaries, the big club and Decepticon senators who take massive campaign bribes from Tom Donohue.
In a recent Op-ed, Peter Navarro highlights how the Trump economic team is delivering on a promise for structural global trade reform that directly benefits the U.S. economy, U.S. workers, and Main Street USA.
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U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer’s work on the U.S-China trade negotiations is easily the most technically challenging and legally complex trade deal in the history of U.S. Commerce.
Lighthizer is not focused on selling more U.S. product, he is focused on bigger issues and enforcement therein.
Think about it.  This is a deal between a U.S. open market economy and a communist controlled closed market economy in China.  No nation has a comprehensive trade deal with China on anything except individual business sectors.
Despite China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, no nation has ever achieved anything close to an aggregate FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with China.  This deal would be the first comprehensive deal, and as such Lighthizer is essentially mapping out an agreement that all other nations could follow….  This is big-league.
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The Canadian government shocked the professional financial and economic media with their latest fourth quarter GDP release showing the economy has essentially come to a grinding halt at 0.1% growth.  [Compare to U.S. GDP growth of 3%]
The Canadian Q4 GDP growth isn’t one percent, it’s one-tenth of one percent: 0.1%, essentially halted; but everyone discussing this is missing something very important.
First, The Financial Post headline:

[FP] Canada’s economy practically came to a halt in the final three months of 2018, in a much deeper-than-expected slowdown that brings the underlying strength of the expansion into doubt.
The country’s economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, for an annualized pace of 0.4 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. That’s the worst quarterly performance in two and a half years, down from annualized 2 per cent in the third quarter and well below economist expectations for a 1 per cent annualized increase.

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Okay, now USTR Robert Lighthizer’s cautiously worded enforcement testimony starts to take on a fuller context.  When Ambassador Lighthizer was testifying before the mostly decepticon House Ways and Means Committee, he started to outline his newly designed trade enforcement mechanism… but he stopped; he didn’t want to reveal too much.
Now listen to Larry Kudlow describe “enforcement”.  WATCH:

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If you watched the USTR testimony you would have seen how the “enforcement” mechanism within the U.S-China trade negotiations was the priority for Lighthizer’s focus; and he specifically mentioned “layered” enforcement triggers, specific to each sector, and issue.
CTH has never seen a U.S. Trade Representative so structurally willing to clear-cut the entire bamboo forest if needed. Lighthizer is intensely focused on enforcement.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on CNBC to discuss the latest releases of economic stats and the on-going trade talks between the U.S. and China.  Kudlow notes the U.S. and China are making progress specifically due to USTR Robert Lighthizer.  Interesting interview.

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Nuance and team subtlety are important here. Larry Kudlow is a loyal soldier, no question, but his economic leaning is toward trade outcomes that benefit Wall Street… Robert Lighthizer is a fierce battle-hardened trade expert, with an outlook that is multi-generational toward Main Street.
Listen to Lighthizer talk about the economic future for his grandkids in his congressional testimony yesterday and you’ll see what I mean. NO COMPROMISE with China.  Lighthizer is prepared to fight all of Main Street’s enemies, including congress.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, finally released the fourth quarter growth rate estimate for 2018.  The 4th quarter growth result at 2.6% exceeded expectations, and shows the U.S. economy is growing stronger than almost all economic forecasts.

WASHINGTON DC – In the fourth-quarter, U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Thursday’s report beat expectations, with consensus economists polled by Bloomberg looking for growth to slow to 2.2% during the final three months of the year. The domestic economy grew at a pace of 3.4% in the third quarter and 4.2% in the second quarter.

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You might want to bookmark this congressional testimony from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to the House Ways and Means Committee for specific purposes…
There are many people who are understandably worried that any U.S. trade agreement between the U.S. and China might not have the most ferocious teeth behind a binding enforcement provision.  If you listen to Ambassador Lighthizer he makes clear that President Donald Trump, and the negotiating team, will not accept any agreement that does not have the strongest enforcement mechanisms at every level.

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In his testimony Lighthizer walks through the basic outline of what a U.S. successful agreement would look like.  While increased Chinese purchases to lower the deficit are a part of the goal, they are a VERY SMALL part of the goal.
The protection of U.S. intellectual property; the removal of non-tariff trade barriers; the confrontation of currency manipulation and the sector by sector enforcement provisions are the primary objective.
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