President Trump tweeted earlier today that he plans to close at least a portion of the U.S-Mexico border next week in an effort to force Mexico to take action and stop the constant caravans of migrants.  Because the economic consequences to border closing will be so severe (cross-border trade) it is prudent to provide advanced notice so everyone can prepare:

Something has to change. Doing the same thing repeatedly and not changing the outcome is not a sustainable policy.  There is a major ongoing crisis at the border.

(Via NBC) […] Trump has threatened to close the border before. In December, amid the partial government shutdown, Trump threatened to close the border if Democrats didn’t agree to fund the construction of his border wall.

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Something slightly delayed next week’s schedule by a few days.  Quite possibly the issue with the “Sanctions”, discussed yesterday.  However, that said, the next two face-to-face discussions between USTR Lighthizer and Vice Premier Liu He have been scheduled.

Statement from the Press Secretary – At the direction of President Donald J. Trump, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing, China, for principal-level meetings starting on March 28, 2019, to continue negotiations aimed at improving the trade relationship between the United States and China.

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Yesterday the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against two Chinese shipping firms for violating ongoing sanctions against North Korea [TREASURY HERE].
With USTR Robert Lighthizer and Secretary Mnuchin set to travel this weekend to Beijing for ongoing trade discussion, the sanction timing complicates the dance with the dragon. Subsequently President Trump sends the following tweet:

Slamming China with sanctions (over DPRK dragon activity) while Beijing is showing the Panda mask (during Beijing trade negotiations) is not wise. If the Panda mask drops during trade negotiations to reveal the Dragon face, then ok. However, the majority of the West, driven by a misunderstanding of the China-DPRK relationship, does not know how directly a manipulative Beijing controls Pyongyang.
Taking aggressive sanction action against China could backfire with Beijing ordering those around Chairman Kim to test a missile.
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Shortly before the president signed an executive order on affirming first amendment rights on college campuses yesterday, President Trump sat down for an extensive interview with Maria Bartiromo.
The interview covers a wide range of topics with a primary focus on the U.S. economy, ongoing trade discussions and issues that impact the U.S. workforce. One of the granular issues that surfaces is a subject we discuss frequently, the value of the ‘chicken tax‘; the 25% tariff on imported trucks and SUV’s.   WATCH:

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LOL, an interesting albeit typically lighthearted discussion with CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett on the budget proposal and status of U.S.T.R trade talks with China.

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National Security Adviser John Bolton appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss recent reports that Kim Jong-un is moving toward more nuclear testing.
Obviously that discussion moves quickly into the influence of China and Chairman Xi Jinping.
The frustrating question no-one ever seems to ask is not “if” China controls the DPRK government, but rather “to what extent”?
It has become more obvious in the past few years that North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un has much less control over officials and military leadership within his own government than previously thought.
Does Chairman Xi and Beijing structurally control everything around Kim? Is Kim a hostage; forced to ride a dragon he doesn’t control?  I think the answer is yes.

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Once people start to realize that China controls North Korea as a proxy province, then the discussion can evolve toward the true nature of the challenge, and the way President Trump is precariously negotiating a hostage release while refusing to pay the ransom.
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The White House has announced that Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro will visit with President Trump on March 19th for bilateral discussions.  The media are framing the visit around the ongoing crisis within Venezuela; however, there’s also an important element as it relates to the panda dance.
President Donald Trump and President Jair Bolsonaro both have a strong nationalist perspective and share a common geopolitical outlook.
In fact, during the 2018 election many dubbed Bolsonaro the ‘Brazilian Trump‘.  President Bolsonaro also made headlines last year when he said he was open to a U.S. military base and alliance.
Yes, it’s true the turmoil in Venezuela is a likely top issue for discussion, but the U.S. and Brazil are now aligned with a commonality toward China…. and it just so happens the U.S. and Brazil are #1 and #2 in production of China’s number one import, soy beans.
China has an almost unquenchable thirst for soybeans, which are crushed to make cooking oil and used in the protein-rich animal feed ingredient soymeal.  The U.S. is the worlds largest producer of soybeans at 108 million metric tonnes. Brazil is the second largest producer with around 87 million metric tonnes.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the February jobs report, wage gains, stimulus from the European Central Bank, and President Trump’s ongoing trade confrontation with China.  [Solid Interview]
Chairman Kudlow notes some interesting dynamics at play including the recent National Household employment survey which showed 225k additional workers resulting in a drop in the overall unemployment statistics to 3.8%

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Additionally, the globalist-minded Wall Street crowd are disappointed that a March summit between Chairman Xi and President Trump has been scuttled. In aggregate terms, this cancellation backdrops USTR Robert Lighthizer’s strong granular demands of the Chinese delegation toward contractual enforcement terms. It is most likely Chairman Xi is not happy with the feedback he is receiving from his team. Too bad.
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The BLS employment report for February is very underwhelming with a mere 20,000 new jobs calculated and results that fall far short of expectations.  The recent private sector ADP payroll report showed 183,000 gains.  Despite the low reported jobs gains, the national unemployment number dropped to 3.8%.
Further confounding the low February BLS calculations, revisions to December and January were upward. December’s jobs were revised up from +222,000 to +227,000 (gaining 5k), and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000 (+7k). With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Job gains now average 186,000 per month over the last three months.
On a very positive note the calculated wage growth continues to reflect a tight labor market where employers are increasing wages well beyond inflation. “In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66, following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4 percent.” That is the strongest sustained wage growth in a decade.

(Source Link)

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Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.
If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time. Your productivity measured in the last four loaves is higher.
Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation. Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.
From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%. In the fourth quarter of 2018 productivity was 1.9%.  That means total business output increased as more product was demanded from within the business operation. Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.  However, the most important numbers for MAGAnomics (Main Street USA) center around manufacturing and durable goods.
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