The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released some important data today surrounding the state of the U.S. economy. The first release shows the current CPI (consumer price index) or rate of inflation:

(BLS Release) […] The all items index increased 1.5 percent for the 12 months ending February, a smaller increase than the 1.6-percent rise for the 12-months ending January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, a slightly smaller figure than the 2.2-percent increase for the period ending January. The food index rose 2.0 percent over the past year, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 2015. In contrast, the energy index declined 5.0 percent over the last 12 months. (read more)

As noted above, energy prices are 5.0% lower year-over-year; this is a significant reason for the current low inflationary rate.  Also energy prices (fuel, gas, oil) disproportionately impact the middle-class as an unavoidable cost.  Lower gas prices (currently down 9.1%) help middle-America, and also have a downstream impact of lowering product transportation costs.
An overall annual rate of inflation at 1.5 percent is exactly on target.  CTH has been predicting this energy-based outcome for more than three years:
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National Security Adviser John Bolton appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss recent reports that Kim Jong-un is moving toward more nuclear testing.
Obviously that discussion moves quickly into the influence of China and Chairman Xi Jinping.
The frustrating question no-one ever seems to ask is not “if” China controls the DPRK government, but rather “to what extent”?
It has become more obvious in the past few years that North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un has much less control over officials and military leadership within his own government than previously thought.
Does Chairman Xi and Beijing structurally control everything around Kim? Is Kim a hostage; forced to ride a dragon he doesn’t control?  I think the answer is yes.

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Once people start to realize that China controls North Korea as a proxy province, then the discussion can evolve toward the true nature of the challenge, and the way President Trump is precariously negotiating a hostage release while refusing to pay the ransom.
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The White House has announced that Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro will visit with President Trump on March 19th for bilateral discussions.  The media are framing the visit around the ongoing crisis within Venezuela; however, there’s also an important element as it relates to the panda dance.
President Donald Trump and President Jair Bolsonaro both have a strong nationalist perspective and share a common geopolitical outlook.
In fact, during the 2018 election many dubbed Bolsonaro the ‘Brazilian Trump‘.  President Bolsonaro also made headlines last year when he said he was open to a U.S. military base and alliance.
Yes, it’s true the turmoil in Venezuela is a likely top issue for discussion, but the U.S. and Brazil are now aligned with a commonality toward China…. and it just so happens the U.S. and Brazil are #1 and #2 in production of China’s number one import, soy beans.
China has an almost unquenchable thirst for soybeans, which are crushed to make cooking oil and used in the protein-rich animal feed ingredient soymeal.  The U.S. is the worlds largest producer of soybeans at 108 million metric tonnes. Brazil is the second largest producer with around 87 million metric tonnes.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the February jobs report, wage gains, stimulus from the European Central Bank, and President Trump’s ongoing trade confrontation with China.  [Solid Interview]
Chairman Kudlow notes some interesting dynamics at play including the recent National Household employment survey which showed 225k additional workers resulting in a drop in the overall unemployment statistics to 3.8%

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Additionally, the globalist-minded Wall Street crowd are disappointed that a March summit between Chairman Xi and President Trump has been scuttled. In aggregate terms, this cancellation backdrops USTR Robert Lighthizer’s strong granular demands of the Chinese delegation toward contractual enforcement terms. It is most likely Chairman Xi is not happy with the feedback he is receiving from his team. Too bad.
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The BLS employment report for February is very underwhelming with a mere 20,000 new jobs calculated and results that fall far short of expectations.  The recent private sector ADP payroll report showed 183,000 gains.  Despite the low reported jobs gains, the national unemployment number dropped to 3.8%.
Further confounding the low February BLS calculations, revisions to December and January were upward. December’s jobs were revised up from +222,000 to +227,000 (gaining 5k), and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000 (+7k). With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Job gains now average 186,000 per month over the last three months.
On a very positive note the calculated wage growth continues to reflect a tight labor market where employers are increasing wages well beyond inflation. “In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66, following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4 percent.” That is the strongest sustained wage growth in a decade.

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Apparently Canadian media are taking their hatred for U.S. President Donald Trump to new levels of opposition.  The taxpayer funded CBC news media is purchasing billboards and transit advertisement throughout Canada to promote a campaign against the sitting U.S. President.

SOURCE: “”TRUMP BAD!” ads are appearing throughout Canada attacking him for wanting to secure the border with Mexico using a historically illiterate comparison to the Berlin Wall. I’ve seen these on Vancouver transit also” (link)

Even for the ultra-leftists within Canada, this antagonistic approach toward the United States is quite remarkable. [Former President Barack Obama was in Canada yesterday.]
D’oh Canada, this will not end well for the Canadian government…  Additionally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is up for reelection this year.
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Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.
If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time. Your productivity measured in the last four loaves is higher.
Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation. Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.
From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%. In the fourth quarter of 2018 productivity was 1.9%.  That means total business output increased as more product was demanded from within the business operation. Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.  However, the most important numbers for MAGAnomics (Main Street USA) center around manufacturing and durable goods.
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It does not appear accidental that each time Justin from Canada starts finding himself in trouble, serious trouble; the same person happens to show up.   In June 2017, Justin was being challenged with a new NAFTA trade agreement… and former President Obama showed up while delivering a speech to the Board of Trade in Montreal.
Fast forward to today…  March 2019 – the Canadian economy has halted; Justin from Canada is embroiled in a growing bribery, corruption and obstruction of justice scandal around SNC-Lavalin; and immediately after he loses two cabinet ministers… former President Obama shows up to deliver a speech to the Board of Trade in Vancouver:

During a question and answer session with Vancouver Board of Trade President Iain Black at the Vancouver Convention Centre in Canada, Obama went into a diatribe about the dangers of rising populism amid national politics. [LINK]
Serendipitous domestic timing for an Obama visit, as the ideological political-wagons are circling to defend Justin from Canada.
Coincidentally, nudge-nudge/wink-wink/say-no-more… say no more… after a coaching/not-coaching session, Justin from Canada has agreed to a heavily controlled press conference on the obstruction scandal tomorrow at 8:00am.
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Earlier today President Donald Trump participated in a meeting of the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board at the White House.  [Video and Transcript below]

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[Transcript] – State Dining Room – 4:17 P.M. EST – MS. TRUMP: Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, on behalf of my co-chair, Secretary Ross, and the entire American Workforce Policy Advisory Board, it’s an honor to have here for today’s inaugural board meeting. We have spent the last several hours in excellent discussion with the objective of advancing a national workforce strategy.
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White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has been a core member of the U.S. trade team providing a brutally honest perspective toward how specific trade engagements can directly benefit the U.S. economy and U.S. worker.
Navarro has gained a reputation as a trade hawk, specifically as it relates to confronting the one-sided trade schemes of China.  However, that encapsulation doesn’t accurately reflect Mr. Navarro’s value.
The Big Club hates him.  Yes, Navarro is hated and opposed by all the right people.  He might be rough around the edges, but he fights… for ‘America First‘.
Navarro is unapologetic in openly calling attention to the process where Wall Street, the multinationals (corporations and banks) have gained power and influence over politicians in Washington DC.  Wall Street funnels hundreds-of-millions to Tom Dohohue, President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  Donohue controls an army of K-Street lobbyists who purchase politicians and sell their CoC created legislation.
Specifically because he calls attention to the brutal truth of a corrupt process, he has become the target of attacks from Wall Street’s beneficiaries, the big club and Decepticon senators who take massive campaign bribes from Tom Donohue.
In a recent Op-ed, Peter Navarro highlights how the Trump economic team is delivering on a promise for structural global trade reform that directly benefits the U.S. economy, U.S. workers, and Main Street USA.
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