Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, President Trump has just announced an emergency tariff program on all Mexican goods that begins on June 10th at 5% and continues to increase monthly until Mexico takes action to halt illegal Central American migration.
Tariff Schedule: ♦5% effective June 10th ♦10% effective July 1st ♦15% effective August 1st ♦20% effective September 1st ♦25% effective October 1st, and continuing therein until Mexico takes action to stop the flow of Central American migrants.

Details from the White House: As everyone knows, the United States of America has been invaded by hundreds of thousands of people coming through Mexico and entering our country illegally.
This sustained influx of illegal aliens has profound consequences on every aspect of our national life—overwhelming our schools, overcrowding our hospitals, draining our welfare system, and causing untold amounts of crime. Gang members, smugglers, human traffickers, and illegal drugs and narcotics of all kinds are pouring across the Southern Border and directly into our communities. Thousands of innocent lives are taken every year as a result of this lawless chaos. It must end NOW!
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Vice-President Mike Pence traveled to Canada today as an emissary of the Trump administration to support Canadian passage of the USMCA trade agreement.
According to Reuters media reports the vice-president was focused on the importance of a strong North American economic alliance, and how a united tri-lateral agreement can form a geopolitical hedge against influence from communist China and socialist ideologies in Cuba and Venezuela. Justin from Canada expressed his perspectives over diminished women’s rights, U.S. abortion laws, the important contributions of a transgender workforce, climate change and the NBA championship playoffs…. Yes, really:

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Meanwhile in Mexico: “The Senate, controlled by Lopez Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) and its allies, should approve the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) once it has passed through congressional committee, the president said.” (link)
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Today is a very good day.  Despite the professional punditry and their doomsayer predictions of Trump tariffs driving up costs for consumers, exactly the opposite is happening.
Despite large growth in the Main Street USA economy; and despite large wage gains by U.S. blue-collar workers; inflation remains low and mysteriously detached from the Fed monetary policy.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand, which could cast doubts on the Federal Reserve’s view that the benign price pressures were largely because of temporary factors.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components increased at a 1.0% rate last quarter, the government said. The so-called core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was previously reported to have risen at a 1.3% pace.
The increase last quarter was the smallest in four years and pushed inflation further below the Fed’s 2% target. (read more)

They just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy will reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) once again confirms our earlier predictions, and releases the data showing inflation is essentially nonexistent.
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Chrystia Freeland has presented the initial procedural process for  the Canadian Parliament to take up a bill to pass the USMCA.  However, the Canadian window is short, if they don’t ratify the trade pact by the end of June, the Canadian parliament will go into legislative recess until after the general elections October 21st, 2019.

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada took a first step toward ratifying the new North American trade agreement on Monday just three days ahead of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s trip to Ottawa to discuss the passage of the treaty.
Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland presented what is known as a “ways and means motion” to the House of Commons, which opens the way for the formal presentation of a bill.

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A fascinating press conference from the standpoint of President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s united position toward the dynamic of North Korea.
It is obvious that Trump and Abe have a strategy for the next step in engagement with Chairman Kim Jong-un.  Notice how PM Abe gives prepared remarks specifically about direct talks, face-to-face talks, with Chairman Kim, facilitated by President Trump opening the door:

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Obviously President Trump trusts Prime Minister Abe as a strategic ally; and a big component of this state visit is the two leaders coordinating regional security issues. China confronted/contained, and simultaneously both partners working on the hostage rescue of Chairman Kim is incredibly consequential.
The strategic value of this state visit is much more than surface appearances.
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Based on time zones (Japan is 13 hours ahead), and considering Lighthizer left on Thursday; it would appear Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are meeting right about now.

(Reuters) – Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Friday that he will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Tokyo on Saturday for trade talks ahead of a summit meeting between leaders from the two nations on Monday.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to discuss topics including North Korea’s nuclear programs, trade issues and the coming Group of 20 leaders’ summit. (link)

Following the State Dinner to celebrate the beginning of the Reiwa Era, introduced with the coronation of Japanese Emperor Naruhito, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are scheduled to hold a summit and joint press conference on Monday.
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The White House provided a background presser for information about President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump’s upcoming state visit to Japan.  [Transcript below] There are some interesting aspects to the itinerary as outlined; however, first, it’s important to emphasize the context.
As CTH shared earlier: At the highest levels of finance and business; in a process within both private industry and the geopolitical realm of government; a key aspect to every long-term strategic reset is the formation of an alliance.  Every successful titan of industry who has structurally changed history has influenced an alliance toward the effort.

I strongly suspect, in anticipation of the China confrontation; and considering the scale of the consequences therein; President Trump selected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as the center of an Indo-Pacific alliance (several years ago).  With the knowledge of USTR Lighthizer heading to Japan with an advance trade team…. now consider:

Via Teleconference – 2:31 P.M. EDT – PRESS OFFICER: Good afternoon, everybody. I’m happy you all could join. We have with us today [senior administration official]. He’ll be providing some brief remarks about the President’s upcoming trip to Japan and a few Q&A afterwards. This will be on background and you can attribute what he says to a senior administration official.

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Last month President Trump accepted an invitation from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for a state visit to Japan May 25th through 28th. The Japanese government is honoring President Trump as the first state guest of the Reiwa Era, introduced with the coronation of Emperor Naruhito.
The official visit itinerary will include the first formal state banquet hosted by the Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako.  The visit is a big honor intended to convey the importance of the relationship between the U.S. and Japan.

Today Reuters is reporting that U.S. Trade Ambassador Robert Lighthizer will be heading to Japan (in advance of President Trump), to meet with Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi.  It seems there’s a possibility Trump and Abe have something planned….

(Reuters) – U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will visit Japan on May 24 to meet Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi to accelerate trade talks ahead of a leaders’ summit a few days later, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said on Monday.
After a late-April meeting between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Trump had said it was possible for the two allies to reach a new bilateral trade deal by the time he visits Tokyo in late May.

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Further evidence there will be no further engagement with China surfaces in an announced specific shift in directive from President Trump today focusing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and USTR Lighthizer on a sector, not a specific nation.
The auto industry is the key sector on two specific trade fronts: the EU trade reset and the ongoing negotiations with Japan.  Both trade agreements center heavily on the auto-sector; and both Japan and the EU have cemented intransigent trade positions.

Enter President Trump to cut the Gordian knot.
It’s a small but important note that President Trump had previously assigned geographic trade responsibilities.  Wilbur Ross has the EU as his primary focus and Robert Lighthizer has authority over Asia.  Today the White House connects the objective of both Ross and Lighthizer as President Trump instructs the U.S. Trade Representative to engage in discussions around the specifics of the auto-sector:

White House – […] Following an extensive review of the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 automobile report, President Trump today issued a proclamation directing the United States Trade Representative to negotiate agreements to address the national security threat, which is causing harm to the American automobile industry. (more)

The President has designated the auto industry as a critical component of national security [More Here].  With Ross’s report in hand, the possibility of increasing tariffs on foreign automobiles is the leverage POTUS gives to Lighthizer along with the mandate to engage.
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A combination of the NAFTA “Fatal Flaw” & transnational Chinese shipments, was always at the heart of President Trump placing steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico during negotiations that culminated in the USMCA trade agreement.  The goal was to block China from dumping product into the U.S. through the doors of Canada/Mexico.
Within the USMCA President Trump and Robert Lighthizer placed a specific rule Article 32:10 which grants the U.S. the right to veto (control) Canadian and Mexican purchase agreements with “Non FTA Market Countries”, ie. China.

This Article 32:10 rule is at the core of the USMCA agreement.   However, after the USMCA agreement was reached President Trump kept the Steel/Aluminum tariffs in place.  For those who don’t understand Trump (insert Chrystia Freeland here) the question was always: why?
Quite simply the answer behind the question was President Trump’s retention of leverage. Yes, in 2018 the USMCA was agreed to; however, the USMCA was not ratified by either Canada or Mexico…. it was only an agreement.  Why would Trump remove critical leverage on an initial promise.
Trump is not a politician; he’s a businessman who knows promises are paper until they become action. Additionally, President Trump is a tactician; the tariff leverage was held until such a time as removing it would generate an immediate gain in national compliance toward his trade objective… That’s the action.  Today:

(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said the U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, boosting efforts to encourage lawmakers to ratify a new North American trade deal.
“I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico and will be selling our product into those countries without the imposition of tariffs or major tariffs,” Trump said at an event Friday. “Hopefully Congress will approve the USMCA quickly.”

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