In 2015 CTH outlined candidate Trump’s economic positions and how they would impact the economy.  We anticipated that MAGAnomics would be reversing three decades of federal reserve monetary policy. After about a year of analysis, in 2016 CTH presented a theory: “A new Dimension in Modern Economics“.
The theory was based on a likelihood of what would happen if MAGA economic Policy was shifted to favor Main St over Wall St.  One aspect we presented was how Federal Reserve monetary policy would be oddly disconnected from its ability to influence inflation.
Today National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on CNBC to discuss the latest first quarter GDP growth rate of 3.2% and the status of the U.S. economy.   Kudlow notes the rate of inflation is disconnected from the GDP growth.

CTH 2016[…]  Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of an upcoming economic lag; which, rather remarkably I would add, is a very interesting dynamic.

(more…)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Madam Akie Abe will be having dinner tonight with President Donald Trump and First Lady to celebrate Melania’s birthday.  The prime minister and the president are close personal friends and will likely play golf tomorrow.
The Trump-Abe relationship existed for many years prior to becoming U.S. President. Their respect for each-other is genuine.  Abe and Trump are competitors on trade and economics and their strategies within that competition are actually fun to watch. The long-standing friendship underpins a very genuine alliance of U.S-Japanese interests.
In advance of the dinner tonight PM Abe and President Trump meet in the Oval Office ahead of a bilateral delegation meeting to discuss trade and regional matters. They also take questions from the media [Video and Transcript Below]

[Transcript] 4:35 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s an honor to have my friend, Prime Minister Abe — Japan. We have many things to discuss, including trade, including some of the numbers that just came out this morning. We had a very big number at 3.2 GDP for the first quarter — usually the worst quarter. That also included the little bit of a dispute we had during the quarter. So 3.2 is far above expectation. I guess many people were thinking it would be in the ones, maybe between one and two. And 3.2 is great.
(more…)

President Donald Trump: “The GDP numbers were just announced and they were far higher than even the high expectation. There were many people who thought it would less than 2, and they were at 3.2.”
“Inflation numbers are very low. The gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC. I said, “You got to bring them down. You got to bring them down.” And gasoline is coming down. We’re doing great.”
“GDP is an incredible number. But remember this: Not only that, we have a great growth — which is growth. We have great growth and also very, very low inflation. Our economy is doing great. Number one in the world. We’re number-one economy right now in the world and it’s not even close.  So thank you very much.”
(more…)

Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, discusses the booming U.S. economy, the future outlook and why he supports the USMCA deal.

(more…)

A tale of two contrasting sets of economic priorities. The U.S. economy continues to outpace all economic forecasts.  Recently U.S. retail sales, wage growth and housing starts have exceeded all expectations.  Tomorrows announced U.S. GDP growth is positioned to exceed all previous doomsayer predictions from the professional financial back-bench.
However, the economic results in Canada are going in the opposite direction.  The Bank of Canada cut their GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.2% today.  A forecast drop of half a percent is a massive drop considering the prior rate of growth was meager at best.

Two full years into the advancement of America-First priorities, the international community is now admitting they can only find growth and value in U.S. investments.

(Via Reuters) […] The [Canadian] central bank now expects economic growth in the first half of 2019 to be lower than anticipated in January, when it released its last monetary policy report, due to a slowdown in Canada’s oil sector, the negative impact of global trade policies and a weaker-than-expected housing sector.

(more…)

The U.S. manufacturing economy continues to expand and thrive amid President Trump policies targeted to benefit middle-class workers.  As an outcome of continued growth another report today shows historic growth in income and home ownership for American workers of Hispanic descent.  Additionally, with targeted trade and tariff policy focused on strengthening the U.S. auto sector the ancillary benefits are surfacing.
A strong and vibrant middle-class is the key to a balanced economy, and thanks to America-First policies the U.S. economy continues to expand.  An example of mid-sized expansion is in this latest article from Michigan where 400+ auto-sector jobs are gained.

MICHIGAN – A German auto supplier is expanding its operations in Michigan with a new manufacturing facility in Plymouth Township.

The Michigan Economic Development Corp.’s governing body approved Tuesday a $2.7 million performance-based grant to Webasto Roof Systems Inc., a subsidiary of the Webasto Group, a sunroof, convertible top and heating systems manufacturer.

(more…)

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow holds an impromptu press conference today with media discussing the current state of the economy. Kudlow focuses attention to the economic gains amid the middle-class.

(more…)

Global economics, and the way the financial media spin, can be funny at times.  On one hand the pretentious global community scoffs at American Exceptionalism and claims the U.S. is only one country amid a international community of equals; on the other hand the reality of the U.S. being the leading economy in the world, and their need to retain access therein, slaps them in the face like a cold fish…
Investment capital flows to the location of highest return.  Amid the U.S. MAGAnomic growth; global investment is inbound to the USA.  The EU and Asia are in a period of low to stagnant growth…  lots of high-brow teeth gnashing.  To make matters worse, Trump is leveraging their weakness against them as he renegotiates reciprocal trade deals.

The G20 IMF and World Bank’s 2019 Annual Spring Meetings of finance ministers (fancy name to describe Mnuchin’s job) is taking place in Washington DC.  The finance ministers are stomping their feet at horrible Trump hoarding all the economic growth.

(Reuters) […] Policymakers from the Group of 20 industrialized countries are worried that the weakness evident in key economies could spread, especially if elevated trade tensions, such as those between the United States and China, escalate further.

(more…)

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Face The Nation to discuss issues with the U.S-Mexico border and possible economic ramifications if the security issues are not addressed. Additionally, Kudlow discusses the USMCA trade deal and the status of current negotiations with China.

(more…)

There are no coincidences when you dance with the dragon.  Earlier today U.S. prosecutors notified Huawei in a court filing they intend to use classified surveillance evidence gained through a FISA warrant against the Chinese state-owned enterprise.

Assistant US Attorney Alex Solomon said at the hearing in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, that the evidence, obtained under the US Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), would require classified handling. (more)

A few hours later, President Trump holds a meeting in the oval office to discuss trade issues with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He….  [Video and Transcript Below]

.
[Transcript] – 4:31 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s a great honor to be with the Vice Premier of China, a highly respected man all over the world. We’ve had tremendous discussions. We’re getting very close to making a deal. That doesn’t mean a deal is made, because it’s not, but we’re certainly getting a lot closer. And I would think with — oh, within the next four weeks or maybe less, maybe more — whatever it takes — something very monumental could be announced.
(more…)