This is funny.  No, really, it is actually funny.  Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its outlook of the global economy.  If you read the IMF prior “dire forecast” from July 17th –yes, only a week ago– you’ll discover the humor aspect.
The IMF is now upgrading their forecast of U.S. economic growth; and admitting -in essence- that President Trump’s America-First agenda is relocating global wealth back to the primary host nation known as the U.S.A.   The increase in their forecast isn’t a small increase, it is essentially adding .3 percent (from 2.3% to 2.6%) or $60 billion more.

However, you’d have to go through two-thirds of the Reuters press coverage of the IMF release; and plow through a littany of doom and gloom; before you found this obscure reference: “The IMF raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.6% in 2019, but left its 2020 forecast for 1.9% growth unchanged.”   Apparently the economic team at Reuters has a sad… harrumph!
Even the Washington Post, despite their earnest efforts, couldn’t actually put a negative spin on the new IMF projection:
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Excellent interview by Charles Payne as White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro outlines how the strategic road map of MAGAnomics is converging.  If you want to see the future, listen to how Navarro outlines what’s coming.
The six MAGAnomic components to pay attention to include: ♦changes to the Universal Postal Union (UPU); ♦HUD Opportunity Zones; ♦America First raw material policy for infrastructure; ♦retail sales strength; ♦the current status of the U.S-China negotiations; and ♦the USMCA ratification.

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♦The UPU was one of those archaic policy issues set-up with good intentions, and then maintained by ‘stupid’ politicians well after it should have been renegotiated.  It’s good to hear that mess is coming to an end in October.
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The Commerce Department has released the first advanced estimate of retail sales and consumer spending for June. Core retail sales increased 0.7 percent last month (very strong), and 3.8 percent year-over-year; very strong retail sales.
Retail sales is an important component to the U.S. economy as more than two-thirds of our GDP is based from retail sales. In essence, one of the unique attributes to the U.S. economy is that we buy lots of stuff. Actually, the U.S. consumer buys almost three-quarters of everything produced. We are -for the most part- self-sustaining; we do not necessarily need to depend on exports. When the U.S. consumer is buying stuff the internal economy is strong.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in June, pointing to strong consumer spending, which could help to blunt some of the drag on the economy from weak business investment.
[…] Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. Compared to June last year, retail sales advanced 3.4%.

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Earlier today China reported the Chinese economy grew at its lowest rate in 27 years. This report follows additional information of more companies exiting China while the U.S-China trade conflict continues.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the future of USMCA, and the vote decision of Speaker Nancy Pelosi; the ongoing renewed U.S. trade talks with China; President Trump’s Made in America Showcase and the overall state of the U.S. economy.

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We had to wait a few weeks to see how the Beijing communists and Xi Jinping hardliners were positioned for new trade talks; and now things make sense.
Initially it seemed at odds with Beijing’s prior position to restart U.S-China trade negotiations with Vice-Premier Liu He.  The prior three months of negotiation came to a collapse when Beijing resoundingly rejected the trade terms organized by Liu He.  If the Red Dragon was so opposed to conciliatory terms, why would team Xi restart with the same negotiator?  Now it makes sense, they didn’t.

China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan has been assigned the role to harden the position of the communist regime and override any panda presentations by Liu He.  Vice-Premier Liu retains the panda mask, but Zhong is the ultimate control agent.  The message within Zhong’s placement tells the true nature of the Chinese position: Trade War !
Beijing attempts to downplay the position of their hard-line commerce addition, but the reality of the re-started trade discussions tells a more fulsome story.  Chairman Xi took the strategically presented bait and is going to engage in full confrontational trade war with President Trump and the U.S. team.

SCMP – The participation of China’s Commerce Minister in the latest trade discussion with the United States was “normal”, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday, playing down the eye-catching change in Beijing’s negotiating team.

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U.S. President Donald Trump is attending an event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, today to discuss the importance of a North American trade bloc and support the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal.
Anticipated start time approximately 2:25pm EST.
UPDATE: Video Added

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In a stunning press conference today U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi explains why she she has taken no action to curb the illegal immigration influx into the U.S.
While explaining why she will not allow congress to debate, change or modify U.S. immigration laws, Pelosi outlines how the United States is part of a global society, without borders and without any sovereign right to impede the “human society” from entering our nation.  Therefore, according to her outlook and worldview, U.S. politicians have no right to stop any migration movement.

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Keep this in mind as we approach the 2020 election.  The Speaker of the House is essentially saying, openly, publicly and without any reservation or concern, the United States of America is no longer a sovereign nation.
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White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on the U.S.-China trade talks where recontact has been established and now officially restarted. As noted, President Trump is in no hurry; the status-quo is leverage in our favor.
Additionally Director Kudlow discusses the potential benefits of the USMCA trade deal and whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.

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Regarding “inflation” these pundits just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy would reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) consistently confirms our earlier predictions releasing data where inflation is essentially nonexistent.
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Today, July 1st, is the first day of the third quarter 2019.  As typical some of the earliest economic reporting from June is released.  One of the first reports comes from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) as they compile the manufacturing sector.

As noted in the ISM review, manufacturing growth remains strong with an overall index of 51.7 (anything above 50 is growth), and the results are stronger than initially predicted by the financial media (Wall Street).
The manufacturing production index for June is 54.1 versus last month’s 51.3 (May); generally this means manufacturing outputs are growing, order backlogs are being reduced, orders are being fulfilled faster.  This is an indication that new production investment is now coming on-line and delivering actual products from orders.
In the past CTH had noted the heavy Main Street investment which began in 2017 would start to come on-line in Q2 2019, it generally takes about two years for a new manufacturing facility to start producing, and then increases in production efficiency follow.  The ISM result shows we were pretty close with that forecast.
Within the review there are particular notes for additional interest.  First, the June manufacturing employment index is 54.5, very strong; (last month 53.7).  In essence manufacturers are hiring at a fast rate.  One cause is better weather (seasonal), and the majority cause is filling the jobs from new production facilities coming on-line.
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During an earlier G20 discussion of technology in a fast digital age, President Trump highlighted the potential security compromises with the new 5G communication network.  This was an indirect shot toward China and the controversy surrounding Huawei with China’s Chairman Xi Jinping only separated from Trump by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

It would appear President Trump is in full confrontation mode, albeit diplomatically, as the highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi is going to take place at 10:30pm tonight.  We are likely, heck, almost guaranteed, to see a complete reversal in position between the two leaders as President Trump wears the panda mask to cover the Eagle glare.  This truly is the dance with the dragon.
After several years of background strategy, President Trump now has Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in a tenuous position while the ramifications of the U.S-China trade dispute unfold around him and seemingly begin to collapse the One-Belt/One-Road supply chain Beijing has carefully planned.  Actual manufacturing and investment is now retreating from China as the U.S. President continues to use access to the U.S. market as leverage to retract the tentacles of Chinese economic expansion.
President Trump has a quiver full of economic arrows that are available to him; not the least of which is the possibility of enhanced tariffs toward even more Chinese products. Beijing cannot keep subsidizing industry to keep position, they are bleeding cash and the threats against Western corporations have only made matters worse.
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