One of the key sectors gaining benefit from the USMCA trade agreement is the auto sector.  Rules on steel and aluminum smelting/origination, and rules on part origination from North America are key aspects to the trade agreement that shifts focus from the import of Asian manufactured parts for assembly to manufacturing in North America.
Essentially, seventy-five percent of the component parts for the auto industry must be manufactured in North America.  This shift directly puts U.S. auto-workers at the forefront for job gains & stops the process of using manufactured parts from China, Asia or the EU.
The goal of the agreement was/is to make manufacturing investment in North America the main consideration for auto-manufacturers who want access to the U.S. market.  Today, as a direct result of future investment considerations, General Motors and Ford unexpectedly surprise 1,500 auto-workers with the announcement their jobs have gone from part-time to full-time status.  Great news for these families:

DETROIT – General Motors’ worker Adarrey “Ace” Humphrey was blindsided Sunday. That’s when his life changed.

Humphrey, 27, has been a part-time temporary worker at GM’s Flint Assembly in Michigan for the last three years. On Sunday morning, he and about 250 of his co-workers crowded into UAW Local 598’s union hall. Most thought they were there for a routine meeting.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released Q4 (November) import/export data showing a considerable drop in the U.S. trade deficit. [Release Here]  Exports increased approximately .7 percent ($208.6 billion) while imports dropped one percent ($251.7 billion.  Lowering the overall trade deficit to $43.1 billion.

While the pundits are surprised at the strong result, it should not come as a surprise to many CTH readers.  During Q2 (June) and Q3 (July, Aug, Sept) the rate of GDP growth was impacted -in part- by inflated U.S. purchases as companies bought holiday merchandise earlier than normal.  This was an effort to avoid looming tariffs, and as a result companies increased their overall inventory.  We predicted Q4 purchases (Oct, Nov, Dec) would be lower specifically because of this backlog of retail inventory.
With the massively successful holiday season now over, those inventories have sold.  Specifically because the value of imports are deducted from the GDP calculations, there will likely be a much stronger Q4 GDP growth resulting from less import activity.
The Wall Street financial pundits are too focused on the multinational side of the ledger; and they simultaneously don’t review data from a Main Street perspective; therefore they don’t see -or pretend not to see- the common sense equation staring them in the face.
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Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley held a mark-up hearing today to review the USMCA and vote the agreement out of committee.  After debate the agreement passed with a 25-3 vote.  Pat Toomey (R-PA), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) voted against the agreement (full hearing video below)

The USMCA is now sent to the full Senate for a vote this month; however, it is interesting to hear the reasons why Toomey, Cassidy and Whitehouse oppose it.
Senator Whitehouse (D) opposes USMCA because it doesn’t address climate change and have the provisions within it to support the Paris Climate Treaty.  Senators Toomey (R) and Cassidy oppose USMCA because it is not friendly to the Wall Street multinationals.
Senator Toomey doesn’t like that the Senate cannot change the USMCA to make it more favorable to the Wall Street multinationals who are invested heavily in China.  Toomey, speaking on behalf of several, noted the Trans-Pacific-Partnership (TPP) is a better trade construct.  Quite a remarkable mask-dropping was visible during the hearing.
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White House economic and manufacturing advisor Peter Navarro appeared on Fox News today to discuss the procedural process anticipated for the USMCA passage as early as the end of next week. Additionally, Navarro highlights the upcoming signing for the U.S-China ‘phase-one’ agreement on January 15th.

(Reuters) – A Chinese trade delegation is planning to travel to Washington on Jan. 13 for the signing of the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal, the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday citing a source briefed on the matter.
The Chinese delegation will return on Jan. 16, SCMP said here
The trade delegation, led by Vice Premier Liu He, had originally planned to set off earlier in the month but had to change plans after U.S. President Donald Trump sent a tweet here claiming that he would sign the Phase 1 trade deal with China on Jan. 15. (read more)

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The 2020 Davos economic conference will be a little more important to watch this year (as it was in 2017) due to the completed U.S. Trade Agreements (S Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and China) and the predicted focus for the Trump administration to pivot from Asia to the EU and U.K. for the next critical phase of the ‘America-First’ global trade reset.

As a result of the recent U.K. election, pending Brexit, a favorable $7.5 billion WTO ruling and USTR Lighthizer’s new $2.4 billion EU targeted tariff program, the administration has significant advantages going into a trade discussion with the EU in 2020.
Team USA has the world’s strongest economy, the largest market, legally bolstered tariff authority and a quiver full of powerful economic arrows.
Meanwhile Team EU has: (1) the UK leaving; (2) severe drops in German industrial manufacturing; (3) a shrinking French economy; (4) yellow-vests in the streets; and (5) demands for greater economic autonomy from many key member states.
Overlay Germany, France and Italy large economy challenges such as: their promise to meet NATO obligations – and their attachment to the strangling Paris Climate Treaty, and the EU’s collective economic position is precarious at best.

WHITE HOUSE – Today, President Donald J. Trump announced the Presidential Delegation that will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, from January 20 to January 24, 2020.

The Honorable Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury, will lead the delegation.

Members of the Presidential Delegation:

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White House Manufacturing and Trade Advisor Peter Navarro discusses the state of the U.S. economy heading into 2020. The Fox crew uses the strawman poll: “some people feel”, to create a narrative that cannot easily be countered; however, the reality in the economic stats cannot be refuted.
Main Street workers are confident; wages continue to increase; inflation is low –  employment is high, consumer spending is strong and the future looks bright.

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Peter Navarro discusses the Trump administration’s trade agenda and some predictions for the state of the Main Street U.S. economy heading into 2020.
Navarro highlights the completed agreements with South Korea, Japan, China phase-1, and the U.S., Mexico, Canada USMCA agreement and what they can deliver next year.

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It really is quite remarkable that President Trump and the economic team could simultaneously diminish the interests of multinationals, focus on Main Street USA, and still create a situation where Wall Street stocks are growing.
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As expected the House of Representatives has passed the USMCA trade agreement with an overwhelming 385 to 41 vote.  Pelosi’s political objective was to use USMCA to water down the toxic political environment created by her impeachment fiasco:

Also as expected, after passing the USMCA the House went into immediate recess for the Christmas holiday without any movement on the fraudulent impeachment articles.
In the time-frame between today and the return to the next congressional session in January, House lawyers will attempt to use the passage of the articles to support their background court cases: (1) McGahn forced deposition; (2) access to Mueller 6(e) grand jury information; and (3) possible access to Trump family financial records.
[PREDICTION for bookmark: Upon return in January Speaker Pelosi will refuse to allow impeached President Trump to deliver a State of the Union address in the House.]
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Earlier today President Trump and First Lady Melania welcomed Guatemala President Jimmy Morales and his wife to the White House.  Prior to their bilateral meeting the two leaders held a press availability in the Oval Office. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. It’s a great honor to have President Jimmy Morales and Mrs. Morales —
MRS. MORALES: Thank you.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: — of Guatemala with us. We’ve had a tremendous relationship over the last two years, on the border. We’ve signed agreements with Guatemala that have been tremendous in terms of really both countries, but our country, with respect to illegals coming into our country. We just can’t have it. And it’s been very much slowed up. Guatemala has been terrific. Honduras, El Salvador, likewise, have been excellent.
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Great interview with United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer as he described the goals, objectives and outcomes of the USMCA and U.S-China Phase One agreements.
While answering a question about Wall St. journal criticism of the USMCA, Lighthizer discussed the dynamic of Wall Street -vs- Main Street as part of the bigger picture objective in the revised deal. He avoids the words “globalism” -vs- “nationalism” but the sentiment as described is there.
On China Lighthizer emphasizes the “phase one” deal is really a test to see if it is even possible to have an enforceable trade agreement between a communist state-run economy (China) and a free-market economy (U.S).

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