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Stunning Canadian Trade Reversal Now Seems Increasingly Likely – Nervous Freeland/Trudeau Trying to Position for Political Face Saving…

During analysis of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement terms it became obvious that *if* Canada was going to join the pact they would have to almost completely acquiesce and reverse on their former positions.   It now is entirely plausible that just might happen.
When entering the meeting with U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Minister Chrystia Freeland spoke specifically about “Canadian workers”.  Justin from Canada has been very cautious in his word choices also speaking about “Canadian workers”.  As Freeland exited the first meeting with Lighthizer the reasoning for their collective word choice is becoming apparent.  Canada is preparing to take a knee, and they are positioning for the least amount of political damage possible.  WATCH the exit of first meeting:


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Team Trump has positioned this perfectly. By using NAFTA section 2202, to construct a modification of the original 1993 agreement, Lighthizer is intending to send a 90-day notification letter to congress informing them the U.S. and Mexico have agreed to modifications of their bilateral trade agreement.
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GDP Second Quarter Estimate Revised Upward to 4.2%: Expanded Investment, Decreased Imports…

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis presented the second estimate for the second quarter GDP growth.  The second review increased the growth upward to 4.2%.

Within the data (full pdf release w/ tables) there are several interesting aspects.

(1) The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was mostly accounted for by investment in software. (2) Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Within goods, the downward revision was widespread, the largest contributor was petroleum.
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $122.5 billion in the first quarter of 2018, an upward revision of $0.4 billion.  (source data)

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Jim Jordan Discusses Bruce Ohr Testimony….

House Judiciary Committee Representative Jim Jordan appears on Fox News with Lou Dobbs to discuss the testimony of DOJ Official Bruce Ohr.


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A Pragmatic Canadian Perspective on U.S-Mexico Trade Agreement…

A few months ago we highlighted a discussion between Ezra Levant and Manny Montenegrino when they first began to notice the direction of Trump strategy and the duplicitous political agenda of Justin from Canada.  After the announcement of the U.S./Mexico trade agreement yesterday, Levant and Montenegrino revisit the discussion.
While both Canadians seem to overlook the importance of President-elect Lopez-Obrador, Jesus Seade, and the mutually beneficial alignment with U.S.T.R. Lighthizer, their perspective on the motives of Justin from Canada and President Trump circle close to the target.


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Meanwhile Chrystia from Canada has now arrived in Washington DC:
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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Discusses Trade, Tariffs, NAFTA, China, EU and the U.S. Economy…

As Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada arrives in Washington DC to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is interviewed by CNBC.
Triple Play: Finalize NAFTA (or two bilats); fill in the details on previously agreed EU deal; then face-down red dragon (China).


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Additionally, Mnuchin had some impromptu remarks (below):
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Bruce Ohr Testifies To Closed-Door Joint Session of Congress (Oversight and Judiciary)…

Today DOJ Official Bruce Ohr is testifying in a closed-door session to a joint House Oversight and Judiciary Committee.  The republican representatives asking questions were selected by Chairman Bob Goodlatte.  Democrats are relying on staff.
According to Kyle Cheney (Politico) Bruce Ohr has four lawyers with him, personal lawyers and lawyers representing the interests of the DOJ.  Initial indications are Ohr has provided testimony that directly conflicts with Fusion-GPS Glenn Simpson, and prior testimony from witness Lisa Page to the joint committee.


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Reminder: Today is Primary Election Day in Florida, Arizona and Oklahoma

If you live in Florida, Arizona or Oklahoma you can find your polling place HERE.  Go Vote…. and if your registration is not up to date in your own home state, now is the time to get prepared for the November mid-terms.  Do not wait.

Oklahoma Polling Locations HERE – Florida Here – Arizona Here


“Donald Trump’s supporters are angry“, or “uneducated”, or “unenlightened”, or (fill_In_The_Blank).  This sentiment is clear within the latest sunlight upon officials within the United States Department of Justice and FBI. Now the corporate media narrative controllers are fully engaged.
The gaslighting is extreme as the same entities utilize their microphones in a brutal attempt to create a self fulfilling prophecy.  In essence, what they are really trying to save is themselves.  However, the reality disconnect only solidifies their irrelevance.
At this point, anyone still trying to convince us this entire assembly of our union is headed in the right direction, well, they might want to revisit their proximity to the 2018 election ballpark. Because they’re not just out of the city – they’re also out of the same state the election ballpark is located in….. But then again, the media know that.

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NEC Director Larry Kudlow Impromptu Conversation With Media…

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow holds an impromptu press gaggle at the White House to field questions about trade and related MAGAnomic matters.


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Additionally Kudlow had some scheduled media appearances (below).
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Secretary Ross Discusses U.S-Mexico Trade Deal and Canada's Options…

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox News to discuss the U.S-Mexico trade agreement and the unlikely possibility of Canada to join the agreement.  In order for Canada to join the agreement they would need to remove protectionist tariffs (dairy); remove subsidies to several sectors (lumber, aeronautics); and in large measure open their economy to free, fair and reciprocal trade.
Additionally, The Wall Street corporations who have exploited NAFTA for strategic financial advantage are unhappy with the removal of the NAFTA loopholes.


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Justin from Canada Painted His Country Into a Lose/Lose Trade Corner – More Details of U.S-Mexico Deal…

By choosing politics over fundamental trade economics Justin and Chrystia from Canada have painted themselves into an isolated position on the renegotiated North American Trade deal.  Here’s the basic Canadian conundrum.

The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to manufacturing origination terms; wage and labor improvements; elimination of AG subsidies and non tariff barriers; and removal of all protectionist tariffs – so long as the structural terms of commerce are upheld.
In order for Canada to join the U.S. Mexico deal they would need to:

  • (1) eliminate soft-wood subsidies in the lumber sector;
  • (2) eliminate protectionist tariffs in the AG (Dairy) sector;
  • (3) accept the 75% rules of origin, eliminating the NAFTA loophole;
  • (4) agree to the enforcement mechanisms for all the above;
  • (5) allow U.S. banks to operate in Canada (financial sector).

Each of these five issues, now locked-in and agreed by the U.S. and Mexico are “take-it-or-leave-it” terms for Canada to join. There’s almost no-way, given the politicization of the Canadian plan, for Justin and Chrystia to agree to those terms and keep their fragmented political support base appeased.
Therefore, absent total acquiescence, it is likely Canada will keep their soft-wood lumber subsidies, keep their protectionist Dairy tariffs, keep their banking rules blocking U.S. access, and face a 25% duty on U.S. auto imports – effectively destroying their auto manufacturing sector.  Car companies (ex. Toyota) will simply leave Canada and return to building/assembling in the U.S.
Here’s the content from a conference call filling in more details:
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