We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data.  (more…)

The Environmental Protect Agency (EPA) was attempting to restrict the energy production from coal-based power plants through a regulatory cap-and-trade scheme intended to limit the emissions from electricity plants. However, by a 6-3 vote the Supreme Court said today the Clean Air Act does not give the EPA broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. [pdf Ruling Here] The regulation -if any- must come from congress, not regulatory fiat from an executive agency.

New York Post – The Supreme Court rolled back the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants Thursday, dealing a massive blow to the Biden administration’s plans to fight climate change.

The 6-3 decision overturned a lower court ruling that gave the federal agency virtually unlimited regulatory powers through the Clean Air Act. […] Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts agreed with the states that “it is not plausible that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt on its own such a regulatory scheme.”

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The U.S. Farm Bureau posts their calculated cost of the July 4th holiday food basket each year.  This year the Farm Bureau is estimating a cost of $69.68 for ten people, that is an increase of 17% from 2021. [DATA HERE]

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I’m not sure we could feed ten people for less than $70, but that’s the estimate from the Farm Bureau which aligns with the Consumer Price Index.  Full data below.

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Quid-pro-Joe.

In March of this year Finland President Sauli Niinistö traveled to the White House [link].  In April reports first surfaced of Finland and Sweden joining the NATO alliance [link].  In mid-May of this year President Sauli Niinistö stated his decision for his country to join NATO was a matter of needing to choose sides, “what we see now, Europe, the world, is more divided. There’s not very much room for ‘non-aligned,’ in-between. So that was also what we are thinking,” he said [link]

The next day, May 16th, Turkish President Recep Erdogan, a preexisting NATO member, said Turkey would block the application of Sweden and Finland from joining NATO until their conditions and terms were accepted [link].  Two days later, May 19th, Joe Biden, flanked by Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson (again at the White House), said the two countries would “make NATO stronger.” [link]

On Tuesday of this week Turkey removed their block of Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, and on Wednesday Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey 40 Lockheed Martin-made F-16 fighters and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes:

Newsmax – The Biden administration threw its support on Wednesday behind the potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, a day after Ankara lifted a veto of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden.

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There is a slow-motion buildup to a hot war with Russia happening.  The NATO and western alliance motive for the war is clear {Go Deep}.  The question is rapidly moving from “if” to “when.”

In this outline we will update on the troop and military movements and then explain why the war with Russia is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  In many ways this will be the “Climate Change War,” you will see why below.

First, the U.S. is moving troops from the 101st Airborne ‘screaming eagles’ into NATO allied countries on the western border of Ukraine.   This is the first deployment of the Army’s 101st Airborne Division from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, to Europe in 80 years.  As noted by base reporting, “Elements of 2nd Brigade Combat Team, and 101st Headquarters and Headquarters Battalion, 101st Airborne Division, have been assigned to carry out the mission.” [source]

“We’re going to check the Russian influence and we’re going to impact the Russians’ decision-making for probably the next 10-20 years,” said Col. John Lubas, deputy commanding officer for operations, 101st Airborne Division, in a pre-deployment briefing. “We’re going to do this with all our partners in NATO, the European Union and the West, and this is an incredibly important mission.” 

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Say what you will about Boris Johnson, but he does proffer pragmatic solutions to problems.

With a pending global food shortage only looking worse by the day British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed to use biofuel farmland to grow food that can be consumed by people.

German Chancellor Olaf Schulz is also supporting the plan. However, Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau have denounced the effort to expand food production in the U.S. and Canada and blocked the framework from G7 policy.

WASHINGTON – […] Mr Johnson will address G7 leaders at a summit in Germany and ask them to repurpose land currently used for crop-based biofuels to grow more food.

The Prime Minister believes using less green fuel would dampen soaring food prices and help avert famines in poorer countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain blockaded in ports by Russia.

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Video has surfaced showing French President Emmanuel Macron informing Joe Biden that asking Saudi Arabia for more oil will not help the current situation and the global energy crisis Joe Biden has created.

The video is from an impromptu conversation at the G7 Summit in Germany.  After a minute, Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan steps in and tells the group they need to go inside and have this conversation because the media can hear and see what they are discussing.  WATCH:

The larger issue comes down to a catastrophic energy agenda by Joe Biden made worse by U.S. foreign policy.  Biden has killed the U.S. oil and gas industry driving up the price of energy which is having horrific consequences as consumer prices skyrocket.  Simultaneous to this bad domestic energy policy, Biden has placed sanctions against Russian oil and gas with the backdrop of preexisting sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

No oil/gas from Russia, no oil/gas from Iran, no oil/gas from Venezuela and now less oil/gas from the United States.  The western alliance is trying to push the climate change agenda while cutting off their own access to cheap energy supplies.   THIS is the primary source of what has been called “global inflation,” it is a self-inflicted wound against the citizens in the western nations.

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This is an almost unimaginable horror in San Antonio, Texas.  This is also the outcome of the Biden administration and Democrats open border policy that fuels the desperate efforts of illegal aliens and predatory human smugglers.

(KSAT News) – San Antonio – At least 42 people were found dead inside a tractor-trailer on the Southwest Side, and 16 others were taken to area hospitals in varying conditions, according to multiple SAPD sources.

Several San Antonio police vehicles, as well as fire trucks and ambulances, are covering a portion of Quintana Road on the Southwest Side. Crews are surrounding an 18-wheeler near the 9600 block of Quintana Road next to railroad tracks. (READ MORE)

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This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this global cleaving would happen.

In April the finance ministers of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) decided to create their own financial mechanisms to continue trade between nations of similar disposition despite Western/NATO sanctions {LINK}. Earlier this month Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar.”  {LINK} Additionally, as the proverbial ‘west’ follows the corporate instructions from the World Economic Forum, Powell expanded his points to note the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is also being reviewed. {LINK}

Following a recent meeting of the BRICS group, Iran (86 million people) and Argentina (46 million people) are now applying to join BRICS, possibly creating BRICS+

(Reuters) – Iran has submitted an application to become a member in the group of emerging economies known as the BRICS, an Iranian official said on Monday.

Iran’s membership in the BRICS group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, “would result in added values for both sides,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.

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Nancy Pelosi shoved the daughter of newly elected Republican Latina Mayra Flores during the swearing in ceremony.  However, the undeterred young lady stood her ground and smiled like a princess.

Pelosi, a typical democrat, doesn’t like brown people getting out of place. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

Representative Mayra Flores responded to the video on Twitter: “I am so proud of my strong, beautiful daughter for not allowing this to faze her. She continued to smile and pose for the picture like a Queen,” the congresswoman’s official campaign account tweeted. “No child should be pushed to the side for a photo op. PERIOD!!”

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