It is interesting to remember the recent comments from Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, who outlined the EU energy crisis as the heart of the current inflation rate in the eurozone.  Lagarde discussed inflation in Europe while drawing a distinction in COVID-19 spending between the EU and U.S.

Essentially, according to Legarde, the EU subsidized businesses to maintain employment; the EU covered payroll expenses during lockdowns, while the U.S. sent direct payments to the American people who were impacted by the lack of work (basically everyone).

Lagarde outlined this difference in spending approach to explain why the Eurozone inflation was less than U.S. inflation.

How long did that EU Central Bank explanation hold up? Approximately two months.

The U.S. inflation rate is currently estimated at 8.6%, and today the eurozone inflation rate just reached,…. wait for it,…  Yep, an exact match at 8.6%.

LONDON (AP) — Inflation in countries using the euro set another eye-watering record, pushed higher by a huge increase in energy costs fueled partly by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Annual inflation in the eurozone’s 19 countries hit 8.6% in June, surging past the 8.1% recorded in May, according to the latest numbers published Friday by the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat. Inflation is at its highest level since recordkeeping for the euro began in 1997.

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Keep in mind as you review this article from the Wall Street Journal that every corporate (think Wall St) media outlet, has claimed for well over a year, that inflation was predominantly a demand side issue.  In essence, consumer demand was so strong that prices were rising because of it.

The demand side argument/justification for inflation was always false.  However, it was/is still the claim made by members of the Biden administration and almost every board member of the federal reserve.

All of them, almost universally, dismissed the supply side inflation argument which is the reality at the epicenter of inflation causation.

Inflation was/is an exclusive outcome of three supply side aspects which merged simultaneously: (1) the Joe Biden energy policy, (2) the Joe Biden promoted covid response via legislative spending, and (3) the promoted Biden administration monetary policy.

While the legislative spending did create artificial economic activity, all of these inflationary sources are supply side impacts.

The demand side claim for the origin of inflation was always a ruse, a con, a complete farce intended to backstop the claim that inflation would be “transitory” once consumer spending moderated.   From that perspective every approach from government toward controlling inflation was wrong.  Not wrong by accident, wrong as a matter of deceit and purposeful media manipulation in order to maintain the “Build Back Better” or “Green New Deal” agenda….. which, I might add, benefitted from the advanced Wall Street investment in both constructs, globally and domestically.

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National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese essentially confirms what everyone suspected about Joe Biden’s polling, approval and disapproval.  It is quite obvious to everyone now that Biden is a disposable figurehead for the people inside the administration and government who are going full speed ahead with the Green New Deal via executive and regulatory action.

During a CNN segment Deese is challenged by the 85% disapproval and he ignores the opposition from the American people by saying the White House needs to “remind people as we go through this period” where energy costs are skyrocketing because climate change goals are unsustainable, during this economic “transition” they have made other progress.  WATCH: 

Joe Biden represents the once in a lifetime opportunity for every ideological leftist in government to carry out the most extreme energy policy without regard to political consequence.  Biden doesn’t even know what they are doing; that’s why there are conflicts between his statements about energy policy and the factual activity that is taking place around energy policy.  Biden couldn’t name the Interior Secretary if his life depended on it.

The extreme elements around Biden are taking advantage of his cognitive and intellectual deficit.  Obama told everyone Biden was an idiot, and now the Obama ideologues are using that idiot to fundamentally change America.   It is clear what they are doing; unfortunately, almost everyone in media and the leadership of both parties are pretending not to know what is happening.

But wait, it gets worse in the next soundbite from Deese .

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There it is folks.  I hope people can see the natural arc of this self-fulfilling prophecy now.  This also is why you should make sure you have potassium iodide tablets in your prep kit.

During a NATO press conference in Madrid [Transcript Here], today Joe Biden specifically attributed the upcoming global food shortage to Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Biden was emphatic when responding to a question about oil costs, western nation energy development and the pending food shortage.

BIDEN…”I think there’s a lot of things we can do and we will do.  But the bottom line is: Ultimately, the reason why gas prices are up is because of Russia.  Russia, Russia, Russia. The reason why the food crisis exist is because of Russia — Russia not allowing grain to get out of Ukraine.”  WATCH:

[Full Video Here – Prompted, if Needed]

Please understand… The food shortage is a done deal. We are beyond the point where current action could impact what is coming.  The timeframe to mitigate any global food shortage is in the rear-view.  Efforts to mitigate the food crisis should have been done months ago.  Nothing was or is being done.

The Western Alliance now needs a scapegoat, a justification for a food crisis that is almost certain to surface.  We do not know the scale of the shortage, but we do know global food supplies are going to be less than needed to feed the world population.

The direct cause of the food shortage is the Western government decision to prioritize climate change over food production.  The Build Back Better climate change agenda has created massive disruption with energy products (biofuel, fertilizer, diesel, natural gas etc) which are critical for the efficient production of food.  However, the western alliance cannot and will not take responsibility for the food crisis.  Instead, as you are seeing above, their plan is to blame Russia.

Stopping Russia from starving the world will be the justification for a physical escalation of conflict between NATO and Russia.  All of the signs and indicators point in this direction. None of the geopolitical or global economic signs point away from this direction.  A NATO led war with Russia is not a matter of “if”, it is a question of “when?”

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We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data.  (more…)

The Environmental Protect Agency (EPA) was attempting to restrict the energy production from coal-based power plants through a regulatory cap-and-trade scheme intended to limit the emissions from electricity plants. However, by a 6-3 vote the Supreme Court said today the Clean Air Act does not give the EPA broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. [pdf Ruling Here] The regulation -if any- must come from congress, not regulatory fiat from an executive agency.

New York Post – The Supreme Court rolled back the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants Thursday, dealing a massive blow to the Biden administration’s plans to fight climate change.

The 6-3 decision overturned a lower court ruling that gave the federal agency virtually unlimited regulatory powers through the Clean Air Act. […] Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts agreed with the states that “it is not plausible that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt on its own such a regulatory scheme.”

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The U.S. Farm Bureau posts their calculated cost of the July 4th holiday food basket each year.  This year the Farm Bureau is estimating a cost of $69.68 for ten people, that is an increase of 17% from 2021. [DATA HERE]

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I’m not sure we could feed ten people for less than $70, but that’s the estimate from the Farm Bureau which aligns with the Consumer Price Index.  Full data below.

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Quid-pro-Joe.

In March of this year Finland President Sauli Niinistö traveled to the White House [link].  In April reports first surfaced of Finland and Sweden joining the NATO alliance [link].  In mid-May of this year President Sauli Niinistö stated his decision for his country to join NATO was a matter of needing to choose sides, “what we see now, Europe, the world, is more divided. There’s not very much room for ‘non-aligned,’ in-between. So that was also what we are thinking,” he said [link]

The next day, May 16th, Turkish President Recep Erdogan, a preexisting NATO member, said Turkey would block the application of Sweden and Finland from joining NATO until their conditions and terms were accepted [link].  Two days later, May 19th, Joe Biden, flanked by Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson (again at the White House), said the two countries would “make NATO stronger.” [link]

On Tuesday of this week Turkey removed their block of Sweden and Finland from joining NATO, and on Wednesday Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey 40 Lockheed Martin-made F-16 fighters and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes:

Newsmax – The Biden administration threw its support on Wednesday behind the potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, a day after Ankara lifted a veto of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden.

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There is a slow-motion buildup to a hot war with Russia happening.  The NATO and western alliance motive for the war is clear {Go Deep}.  The question is rapidly moving from “if” to “when.”

In this outline we will update on the troop and military movements and then explain why the war with Russia is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  In many ways this will be the “Climate Change War,” you will see why below.

First, the U.S. is moving troops from the 101st Airborne ‘screaming eagles’ into NATO allied countries on the western border of Ukraine.   This is the first deployment of the Army’s 101st Airborne Division from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, to Europe in 80 years.  As noted by base reporting, “Elements of 2nd Brigade Combat Team, and 101st Headquarters and Headquarters Battalion, 101st Airborne Division, have been assigned to carry out the mission.” [source]

“We’re going to check the Russian influence and we’re going to impact the Russians’ decision-making for probably the next 10-20 years,” said Col. John Lubas, deputy commanding officer for operations, 101st Airborne Division, in a pre-deployment briefing. “We’re going to do this with all our partners in NATO, the European Union and the West, and this is an incredibly important mission.” 

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Say what you will about Boris Johnson, but he does proffer pragmatic solutions to problems.

With a pending global food shortage only looking worse by the day British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed to use biofuel farmland to grow food that can be consumed by people.

German Chancellor Olaf Schulz is also supporting the plan. However, Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau have denounced the effort to expand food production in the U.S. and Canada and blocked the framework from G7 policy.

WASHINGTON – […] Mr Johnson will address G7 leaders at a summit in Germany and ask them to repurpose land currently used for crop-based biofuels to grow more food.

The Prime Minister believes using less green fuel would dampen soaring food prices and help avert famines in poorer countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain blockaded in ports by Russia.

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