President Trump appeared for an extensive interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business.  The interview is essentially broken down into two interrelated contexts, the Iran conflict and the overall economic issues.  There are two segments, in this post we focus on the first segment.

Here President Trump is discussing the overall economy and there is an unusual dynamic in the background.   As the Iran conflict unsettles the oil/gas markets and the overall global energy sector, there are two facets to the USA impact.

On one hand, say the Main Street side, President Trump understands the price of gasoline is being impacted by the overall price of oil.  For Americans the increase in gasoline price is moderate compared to the rest of the world; however, each dollar spent on gasoline is a dollar the middle-class doesn’t have to spend on something else. That can have a negative impact on GDP overall, but the dollar spent stays in the U.S. economy.

On the other hand, say the Wall Street side, President Trump also understand as more global markets seek to export U.S. oil, the U.S. energy sector expands GDP through increased export value.  In my estimation, the Quarter #2 GDP is expanding at a much higher rate (due to the export of Oil/Gas) than the internal impact from higher gas prices.  I expect to see significant increases in GDP growth as a result. Those Q2 calculations will come at the end of July this year.

President Trump also hits on a good -albeit politically incorrect-point about the preceding illegal alien influx, supported by Joe Biden.  The economic migrants who entered the country illegally were not -as a whole- the type of migrant looking to be responsible for their own economic outcome. These were illegal aliens comfortable with govt handouts and govt subsidies. This is why it remains critical for the U.S. economy to capture and deport those who entered illegally during that period.

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington as a historic opportunity, with Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad attending. The meeting focuses on moving forward amid complex regional tensions and a fragile Middle East ceasefire. WATCH:

[TRANSCRIPT] QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, why did you decide to join? Is it a signal that the U.S. is fully engaged?

QUESTION: Can we see a ceasefire soon between Lebanon and Israel?

QUESTION: Secretary —

SECRETARY RUBIO: “May I please? Thank you very much. Thank you for being here today. We’re very honored to be joined by two countries that the United States wants to have strong – have strong relations with, and we’re obviously very happy to serve in this facilitating role.”

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Vice President JD Vance appeared on Fox News for a discussion of what structural differences exist between the position of Iran and the position of the U.S. and allied nations surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

JD Vance notes the key point of conflict surrounds Iran’s desire to retain the ability to construct a nuclear weapon and the refusal to give up custody of currently refined nuclear fuel.  Vance also noted the negotiators in the Iran delegation did not appear to have the ability to make a deal without going back to talk to other Iranian officials.

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A generally good summary into some of the financial issues happening in the background of the dire Straits of Hormuz.

Susan Kokinda highlights UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer declining to join an American blockade and claims Britain has lost control of the choke point. She details financial actions targeting Iranian money flows, including UAE arrests of IRGC-linked money changers, Treasury Secretary Bessent using Patriot Act Section 311 against a Zurich bank, and scrutiny of London-based crypto exchanges and Santander UK. She cites a UK military chief admitting Britain’s war planning has lapsed since the Cold War and links fuel disruptions and protests to the conflict, concluding Trump has forced a hidden imperial system into the open.  WATCH:

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Arriving at Joint Base Andrews, President Trump delivers remarks to the assembled press pool and answers questions from the media. WATCH:

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The headline is the reality of the thing.

Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place.  However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place.

CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move.

The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.

The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade.

All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches. (SOURCE)

Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage.  Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue.  However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked.  China takes the biggest hit, again.

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President Donald Trump joins Maria Bartiromo on ‘Sunday Morning Futures’ to detail the Strait of Hormuz blockade, warn Iran on nuclear weapons, outline next U.S. military and economic steps after failed peace talks.

President Trump expands on the details of Operation Epic Fury as well as the ceasefire negotiations which have hit the impasse created by Iran’s demand to continue developing a nuclear weapon.  WATCH:

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Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.

What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing.  I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.

Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?

Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!

So, what’s different?  Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism.  For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.

As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find.  In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS.  Great Britain is almost out of fuel.

That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.

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I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

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Vice President JD Vance speaks briefly to the assembled press pool in Pakistan following 21 hours of negotiations with interim Iranian officials.

Vice President Vance notes that no deal was reached and that is fundamentally “bad news for Iran.”  Within the brief remarks and responses to questions, Vance notes Iran “has chosen, not to accept our terms.”  The VP then outlined the core goal is for an agreement not to develop a nuclear weapon, and the Iranian delegation are unwilling to accept terms that stop them from achieving nuclear weapon capabilities.  WATCH:

President Trump is scheduled to give a live interview with Maria Bartiromo at 10:00am ET on Fox News.  Obviously, this will be the substantive issue President Trump will likely discuss.

With tensions still high and no clear next steps, Iran’s refusal to accept terms without nuclear missile development raises serious questions about the future of the conflict.

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