The media have been going bananas wondering when President Trump will begin negotiations with China.  President Trump has been very clear that there is no need to open negotiations with China, but all discussions are welcome.

Essentially the point is that tariffs will remain in place until Beijing gets to a point where they acquiesce to the reality of President Trump’s terms for reciprocal trade.  The goal is to bring manufacturing back to the USA, not generate terms where manufacturing remains in China.

The Chinese trade delegation is scheduled to be in Switzerland at the same time as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to be there.  Both Bessent and Greer announced today they will meet with their Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of their travel to Switzerland.

USTR Press Release – […] “At President Trump’s direction, I am negotiating with countries to rebalance our trade relations to achieve reciprocity, open new markets, and protect America’s economic and national security,” said Ambassador Greer. “I look forward to having productive meetings with some of my counterparts as well as visiting with my team in Geneva who all work diligently to advance U.S. interests on a range of multilateral issues.”

While in Switzerland, Ambassador Greer will also meet with his counterpart from the People’s Republic of China to discuss trade matters.” (link)

Treasury Secretary Press Release – “During Secretary Bessent’s visit to Switzerland, he will meet with President Karin Keller-Sutter of Switzerland, during which the Secretary will follow up on their recent meeting on the sidelines of the recent World Bank Group (WBG) – International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings. 

While in Switzerland, Secretary Bessent will also meet with the lead representative on economic matters from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). (link)

As we previously noted, the Swiss are very interested in resolving their trade status quickly.

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Much of Europe celebrates “VE Day,” Victory in Europe Day on May 8th, to celebrate the defeat of the German Nazi regime and the ending of World War II.

Within Russia “Victory Day” on May 8th is a big deal, a very big deal.  Russia lost approximately 27 million people in World War II, approximately 8.7 million military men and approximately 18 million civilians.  Think of the scale. Somewhere in the range of 35 to 40% of Russian men were killed in war.  Throughout Russia, honoring the history of May 8 is a big deal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a ceasefire of hostility in the Ukraine conflict surrounding Victory Day, as celebrations in Russia take place from Thursday through Sunday.  However, in keeping tradition with the Nazi history, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Ukraine military, with support from EU NATO allies has launched an offensive into Russia’s Kursk region -regardless of human cost- simply to humiliate Vladimir Putin.

UKRAINE – Ukraine has launched a stunning offensive in Russia’s Kursk region in a major embarrassment for Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin was determined to expel all Ukrainian troops from Russian soil ahead of this week’s Victory Day parade.

He declared a three-day ceasefire with Ukraine, starting Thursday and ending Saturday, to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War.  Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to attend the official ceremony on Friday on Moscow’s Red Square.

But Volodymyr Zelensky’s army breached the Russian border Sunday night near the village of Tetkino. (read more)

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The spotlight on Romania might just be too intense for the EU/NATO globalists to pull off another election outcome.

With the first-round of the Romanian re-do election now completed, the nationalists have shown their resilience and delivered a defeat to the globalists.

In response the pro-NATO/EU prime minister has announced his resignation.

BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) — Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced his resignation on Monday, a day after the governing coalition’s joint candidate failed to advance to the runoff in the closely watched rerun of the presidential election.

The coalition’s candidate, Crin Antonescu, was third in Sunday’s first round, far behind top finisher hard-right nationalist George Simion and pro-Western reformist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.

“Rather than let the future president replace me, I decided to resign myself,” the prime minister told reporters after a meeting at the headquarters of his Social Democratic Party, or PSD.

Sunday’s rerun underscored strong anti-establishment sentiment among Romanians and signaled a power shift away from traditional mainstream parties. It also renewed the political turmoil that has gripped the European Union and NATO member country. (more)

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In a decision to position for long-term tariff avoidance, Mercedes Benz will shift production of their GLC (compact SUV) to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, away from Bremen, Germany.

Previously, the German automaker had shifted manufacturing of large SUV lines to the USA to avoid the pre-existing 25% ‘chicken tax.’  However, the smaller and less expensive crossover types were still made in Germany and shipped to the USA.  As the shipping vessels returned to Germany, they would take some of the SUV inventory back with them.  It was the most cost-effective solution, given the nature of the tariff situation.

Now, with larger import tariffs against all vehicles, Mercedes has shifted their business model to essentially an outcome where all USA marketed/sold vehicles will be manufactured in the USA, and all EU marketed/sold vehicles will be manufactured in Germany.

(Via Daily Mail) – Mercedes-Benz will shift production of one of its vehicles to Tuscaloosa, Alabama by 2027. The German luxury carmaker’s move is the latest response from an industry caught in the expensive crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s 25 percent tariffs.

The decision marks a potential win for Trump’s protectionist trade agenda, which aims to boost US manufacturing by slapping steep tariffs on foreign-made goods. But there are many complicating factors.

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The original winner of the previous Romanian election in 2024, Călin Georgescu, was removed as the election winner and barred from ever running again because Georgescu did not support the EU security state and did not want war with Russia.  The election was thrown out because the wrong person won the vote of the Romanian people.

A second election was organized, and the man who represents the voice of Călin Georgescu, George Simion, has won the first round.  However, do not get too excited; remember, NATO is building their biggest military base in Romania, and they will not accept any impediments.

Like Moldova, the second round will likely see massive numbers of “Romanians voting from abroad” to help shape the final result.  The people living in Romania will not technically be the ones deciding the Romanian election.

In the new era of intelligence systems controlling “democracy,” all votes from people with an interest in the matter will be counted in favor of the candidate chosen by the EU national security apparatus.

BUCHAREST — George Simion, the hard-right leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, is projected to win the first round of Romania’s presidential election with around 40 percent of the vote, according to partial results from the country’s election authority.

Simion badges himself as a supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, wants to stop military aid to Ukraine and will leave the EU quaking as another key country threatens to turn its back on mainstream European policies.

“I promise I will always heed the will of the people. I am here to serve Romanians, not the other way around,” Simion said in a statement early Monday.

He will face centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, who edged out establishment figurehead Crin Antonescu to make it into a runoff on May 18.

Dan won 20.7 percent of the ballots of Romanians voting at home, barely ahead of Antonescu, who received 20.5 percent. But Dan won 26 percent of the votes of Romanians voting abroad, with nearly 80 percent of the polling stations counted. Antonescu only received 7.3 percent of the votes abroad.

[…] The election results are being closely watched in Brussels and Washington, as Romania has become the latest battleground between the far right and the political establishment.

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According to the people present, when former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago to meet with President-elect Donald Trump, his primary objective was to inform President Trump his public demands for U.S. trade reciprocity with Canada were unachievable.

Trudeau was not lying.  In this outline we will explain a dynamic that is certain to surface this summer.

President Trump has deferred all North American trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico until later in the year, after the priority trade deals with other large trade partners are completed.  The USMCA trade pact is due for review and renegotiation this year [BACK STORY]. We should expect an entirely different trade pact as an outcome, quite possibly the ending of the trilateral nature of the current agreement.

A few days ago, Politico noted that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a reprieve from his prior campaign points about confronting President Trump on tariffs immediately.  PM Carney is currently trying to align allies for what will likely be a major confrontation that he cannot win.

♦ BACKGROUND – Following the 2024 presidential election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago and said if President Trump was to make the Canadian government face reciprocal tariffs, open the USMCA trade agreements to force reciprocity, and/or balance economic relations on non-tariff issues, then Canada would collapse upon itself economically and cease to exist.  In essence, in addition to the NATO defense shortfall, Canada cannot survive as a free and independent north American nation, without receiving all the one-way benefits from the U.S. economy.

To wit, President Trump then said, if Canada cannot survive in a balanced rules environment, including putting together their own military and defenses and meeting their NATO obligations, then Canada should become the 51st U.S state.  It was following this meeting that President Trump started emphasizing this point and shocking everyone in the process.  However, in the emotional reaction to Trump’s statements, no-one looked at the core issues outlined by Trudeau that framed President Trump’s opinion.

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Last week CTH noted, “interested political followers in the USA should pay close attention to how the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWA) respond to the corporate media narrative. …  Will the International Longshoremen’s Association stand with Trump, or will they drop support as the global trade reset emphasizes domestically manufactured jobs?  That will be an interesting aspect to watch because the dockworker union leadership will face massive pressure to comply with the anti-tariff narrative.”  (full article)

Yesterday, we got the answer: “The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) unequivocally condemns the recent tariffs that the Trump administration has imposed.”

[SOURCE]

All these moves are so transparently political, it almost makes you laugh.  However, that said, we are now in a better position to understand exactly how the Democrats and Deep State operatives will weaponize the supply chain along with their union orcs.

In the next phase of the anti-Trump tariff agenda, approximately 3 months from now it will begin, we will see/hear a constant drumbeat of empty shelves, missing parts and missing products.  Whether factually true, or whether the shortages are an outcome of a strategy by the ILWA to assist the shortage narrative, the overall objective will be to blame President Trump for everything from shortages of medicine to shortages of parts to fix, repair or maintain consumer products.

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Hat Tip very dear friend of the Treehouse, Zurich Mike.

Switzerland is in a conundrum. More specifically, the Swiss National Bank is stuck betwixt two points that are also playing out in other stable western countries.  Exports to the USA account for over ten percent of the Swiss manufacturing base.

The Trump tariffs are putting pressure on Switzerland to drop the value of their currency as an offset to retain competitive pricing.  However, simultaneous to the tariffs, the Swiss Franc is being purchased by global investment groups and sovereign foreign countries as a safe harbor due to the stability of the currency, which is driving up the value of the franc.

The Swiss Franc is now at the highest point against the U.S dollar in decades. One franc is worth 1.21 dollars.  This makes their exports cost even more.  The Swiss government desperately needs to lower the value of their currency.  The Swiss central bank has already dropped interest rates to 0.25% and is now contemplating negative interest rates as a result.

SWITZERLAND – […] That is why many are speculating on a reaction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB Director Martin Schlegel could weaken the currency by selling the Swiss franc against the dollar and euro in order to support the export-oriented economy.

But this could provoke a backlash from Trump if he perceives the SNB’s intervention as currency manipulation. Even during Trump’s first term in office, Switzerland was on the US list of suspected currency manipulators.

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I am trying to avoid my own confirmation bias, which is difficult in this case, because when Congressman Mike Waltz was announced as NSA to President-elect Donald Trump, immediately I thought he would be the first to exit the national security team; his ideology just doesn’t mesh right.

Following the fiasco with Signal and his Jeffrey Goldberg foul up, it looked like Waltz was pushed out of the immediate circle of influence and instead told to focus on restructuring the National Security Council.  His proximity still exists, but his immediate role appears -at least outwardly- to have shifted; he seems less influential as a direct emissary for President Trump to foreign intelligence peers and leaders.

I have this horribly annoying affliction to noticing small details and taking notes, and all indications point in that direction.  When you start to notice this shift, what becomes evident is within the verbiage used as a proximity person begins describing events as if they were an observer, not a direct participant. [The “we” is lost.] Listen to how Mike Waltz describes current geopolitical events, he sounds like a pundit not a participant.

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If my suspicion is accurate, President Trump has a National Security Advisor in name only.

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An interesting report from the U.K reflects British government officials who feel their legal position against ‘free speech’ in Great Britain is now part of the negotiations for President Trump’s tariffs.  Essentially, the tariff discussion is encompassing more than just tariffs; if the nation does not support traditional freedoms and liberty, they could face stronger tariffs from the USA.

The messenger for this dynamic is not coincidentally Vice President JD Vance, who aligns closely with the tech platforms.  The tech control agents are bitterly opposed to President Trump’s tariff position, and this nuance is quite possibly a way to give the tech platforms an ancillary benefit, vis-a-vis free speech support.

The tech industry is facing pressure from the EU and British government to censor and control information content on their platforms.  By adding the importance of free speech to the leverage of tariff pressure, President Trump gives both Main Street companies and American Tech Titans something important to their business interests.  This is both a smart and righteous approach.

(Via The UK Independent) Sir Keir Starmer must embrace Donald Trump’s agenda by repealing hate speech laws in order to get a trade deal over the line, a Washington source has told The Independent.

The warning came after the US vice-president suggested a UK-US agreement may be close, with the White House “working very hard” on it.

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