“No more stupid trade deals” ~ U.S. President Donald Trump

From the G7 Mission Statement outlining the objectives of their meeting: “From May 31 – June 2, 2018, G7 Ministers responsible for development cooperation met in Whistler, Canada, to discuss their shared priorities on some of the most pressing global development and humanitarian challenges, including advancing gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls.”

However, as the G7 finance ministerial sessions wrapped up today, all the talk centered around their collective, and stunningly hypocritical, angst at new United States trade policy; specifically the imposition of Steel and Aluminum tariffs on imported goods.

France, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and Italy all have trade tariffs and trade barriers far higher than the U.S.  Each of the G7 nations has exploited the overwhelmingly one-sided access to the U.S. market for decades.  As President Trump demands “reciprocal and fair” trade agreements – those same nations now balk at the same rules and duties they impose on the U.S. now being imposed against them.

The European Union is a non-enumerated member of the G7, and does not chair nor hosts Summits; however, the EU head joins with the G7 in collective angst against a U.S. trade reset.   It’s hilarious to watch them going bananas.

WHISTLER, British Columbia (Reuters) – Finance leaders of the closest U.S. allies vented anger over the Trump administration’s metal import tariffs but ended a three-day meeting in Canada on Saturday with no solutions, setting the stage for a heated fight at a G7 summit next week in Quebec.

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Amid ongoing trade stalemates with NAFTA and the EU, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has announced the U.S. Commerce Department will no longer provide exemptions for the European Union, Canada or Mexico.

As anticipated, during a telephone briefing with reporters Secretary Ross announced at midnight tonight the 25% steel, and 10% aluminum, tariffs on imported goods will begin.

Via Reuters: U.S Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters on a telephone briefing that a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports from the EU, Canada and Mexico would go into effect at midnight (0400 GMT on Friday).

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The Wall Street Journal is publishing a report the European Union is likely to lose their exemption on Friday June 1st, from the U.S. Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%) tariffs. Despite their article outline almost everything is still speculation at this point; however, our own review of the trade position indicates the administration is very prepared to begin delivering the metal tariffs on all nations, including NAFTA partners, without reservation.

President Trump positioning the auto-industry 232 review, May 23rd, was one of the key ‘leverage signals‘ something was about to change.

Despite massively one-sided EU imposed tariffs against U.S. products, the EU is demanding to be permanently exempted from any U.S. reciprocal tariff measures or they will block the import of U.S. products. The hypocrisy is typically European.

Adding fuel to the speculation the tariff exemptions will be allowed to expire Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated earlier today, at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) summit – a multinational trade conference, that any/all trade discussions are entirely possible regardless of whether the U.S. begins the tariff against steel and aluminum imports.

WSJ – […]  Mr. Trump has threatened to punish EU car exports if the bloc retaliates, and Mr. Ross is pursuing a study of car and auto-part imports similar to the one he completed on steel and aluminum.

Officials in some EU member states are already angry at Washington over Mr. Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. Still, others, including some German officials, want to seek a solution that prevents economic damage.

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The 30-day extension on exemptions for Steel and Aluminum tariffs is scheduled to expire June 1st.  President Trump is positioning the U.S. Trade Team for a substantial reset. According to reports, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystina Freeland held a terse meeting today over the tariffs and Canada’s unwillingness to close the NAFTA ‘fatal flaw‘ (loophole).

Both Canada and Mexico have structured key parts of their trade agreements to take advantage of their unique access to the U.S. market.  Mexico and Canada generate billions in economic activity through exploiting the NAFTA loophole.  China, Asia (writ large), and the EU enter into trade agreements with Mexico and Canada as back-doors into the U.S. market.  So long as corporations can avoid U.S. tariffs by going through Canada and Mexico they will continue to exploit this approach.

If the U.S. applies the same tariffs to Canada and Mexico we apply to all trade nations, then the benefit of using Canada and Mexico -by those trade nations- is lost. Corporations will no longer have any advantage, and many are likely to just deal directly with the U.S.  However, this would mean hundreds of billions in lost economic activity for Mexico and Canada.  It is the NAFTA fatal flaw.

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South Korean Prime Minister Moon Jae-in is the Asian version of Barack Obama, and much like North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un essentially irrelevant in this geopolitical confrontation.  Take a seat, or make a sandwich…. it matters not.

Behind the fanciful Korean ‘denuclearization talks‘ and lofty ‘peace initiatives‘ a far more consequential geopolitical economic battle is taking place between the worlds largest two economies.  U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping are engaged.

The Sandwich Maker Summit –  (Reuters) – “South Korean President Moon Jae-in held a surprise meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Saturday in an effort to ensure that a high-stakes summit between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump takes place successfully, South Korean officials said.

[…]  Their two hours of talks at the Panmunjom border village came a month after they held the first inter-Korean summit in more than a decade at the same venue. At that meeting, they declared they would work toward a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War.

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The MSM is insufferable in their intentional disconnect of the dynamic behind the North Korean denuclearization talks.  It was Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping who brought the DPRK to the table; and it was Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping who pushed North Korea away from the table in their manipulative efforts to extract trade concessions. Every other review of the geopolitical gamesmanship is chaff and countermeasures.

U.S. President Trump is holding massive steel and aluminum tariffs as an economic sword of Damocles over the head of Beijing during ongoing trade negotiations.  Chairman Xi sought to increase his own leverage by pulling North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un away from bilateral peace and denuclearization talks.  However, POTUS Trump responded to the Beijing power-play by announcing a Section 232 trade review over the entire auto-industry; and then bolstered his counter-move by cancelling talks with Kim Jong-un.

Red Dragon didn’t expect President Trump to respond so effectively to the customary schemes notoriously famous in any Chinese negotiation encounter. I really believe Chairman Xi underestimates how adept POTUS Trump is at cutting through the obfuscation and obtuse moves.

President Trump simply doesn’t operate in the land of traditional diplomatic discomfort… he doesn’t have any inclination to play these insufferable games.

Within minutes of President Trump withdrawing from the June 12th summit, Beijing realized all of their trade leverage was just wiped out.  Playing deceptive panda isn’t going to work this time.

(Via AP) – North Korea says it is still willing to sit down for talks with the United States “at any time, at any format” after President Donald Trump abruptly canceled his planned summit with Kim Jong Un.

Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan issued a statement Friday saying North Korea is “willing to give the U.S. time and opportunities” to reconsider talks.

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Big picture move by President Trump today that has massive, and generally misinterpreted, ramifications for any trade deal with China, EU and most importantly NAFTA.

China is using U.S. nuclear negotiations with North Korea as leverage for more beneficial trade outcomes; the communist regime is in full manipulative dragon-mode. President Trump can see through the economic play and is dropping the Panda outreach.  Eagle-one now hits back at Chairman Xi for deploying such dangerous tactics.

If you have been following trade nuance, the Automobile Sector is one of the biggest points of contention within varying trade negotiations. In the NAFTA discussion the auto-sector, via rules of origin, runs at the heart of NAFTA’s fatal flaw.

The fatal flaw is the use of Asian, mostly Chinese, auto components within auto manufacturing. Mexico and Canada arguing to allow more Chinese auto parts in North American manufacturing; and President Trump demanding more North American parts for North American auto manufacturing.

Many U.S. Auto manufacturers have moved to Mexico to exploit the NAFTA loophole (fatal flaw). Vehicles assembled in Mexico use cheaper Chinese parts and are shipped into the U.S. without any tariff under NAFTA rules.

It didn’t take long before EU auto-manufacturers, mostly German, to begin taking the same approach. Albeit to a lesser extent, German auto companies also invested in building vehicles in Mexico/Canada for tariff-free transfer into the U.S. This works out great for Canada and Mexico auto-workers, but not for the U.S.

In essence, the auto-sector is representative of much of the manufacturing exploitation by multinational corporations beyond vehicle production. China has supported this approach because they produce the components for multiple sectors (furniture, appliances etc).

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President Trump met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House today for a bilateral meeting on EU security and trade issues.  During the Oval Office press availability both made remarks but president Trump took the opportunity to have an impromptu presser on other current issues.   WATCH:

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Hopefully everyone paid attention to the North Korea topic. It was not coincidental the stompy-feet assertions of Kim Jong-un and the DPRK were timed at the exact moment Chinese Vice-Premier Liu arrived in the U.S. for important trade talks. Once again Chairman Xi Jinping is using his proxy province of N-Korea to leverage economic benefits:

WASHINGTON – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s special envoy and Vice-Premier Liu He arrived in Washington on Tuesday afternoon. Liu, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-US comprehensive economic dialogue, is leading a Chinese delegation for the talks.

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Earlier today President Trump welcomed President Mirziyoyev of the Republic of Uzbekistan to the White House for a diplomatic meeting. Among the issues discussed were regional security issues important to Uzbekistan, and engagement in economic partnerships with U.S. companies to enhance a growing trade relationship:

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Recap video below:

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It is interesting to watch the Trump Cabinet debate the Obama Cabinet (U.S. media). In this interview between White House National Security Advisor John Bolton and ABC’s Martha Raddatz the central topic is Iran; the detailed conversation is deep weeds therein.

After Bolton presents the administration position and reasoning for exiting the deeply flawed, unsigned and unenforceable Obama Iran “deal” (not treaty), essentially a JCPOA pathway to the land of broken promises, Ambassador Bolton then reaches the part of the discussion where sanctions against European companies come back into play.  This is the best part.  WATCH:

Massive U.S. economic leverage, and the strategic application therein, is an aspect that drives the left-wing Iranian apologists bananas.  A weaponized $20 trillion U.S. economy is the unavoidable atomic sledgehammer at the foundation of the Trump Doctrine.  It is far more powerful than a military weapon and drops all nations to their knees in compliance.

Everything is about the economics. E.V.E.R.Y.T.H.I.N.G. Every point of opposition; every forward MAGA policy; every initiative, including freedom; every move toward success; everything is about the economics.

Look at the immediate take-away published by Reuters.

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