A good day for a MAGAnomic pause and reminder…
In 2015 we discussed candidate Trump’s economic positions and how they would impact the economy.  CTH anticipated that MAGAnomics would be reversing three decades of federal reserve monetary policy. After about a year of analysis and discussion, in 2016 CTH presented a theory: “A new Dimension in Modern Economics“.

CTH shared a possibility of what could happen if Trump Economic Policy was shifted to favor Main St. over Wall St.  One aspect we presented was how Federal Reserve monetary policy would be oddly disconnected from its ability to influence inflation… Today:

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could find itself fighting too-low inflation for years to come, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday, and may need a new policy framework to lift inflation back up to the Fed’s 2% goal.
“We don’t have a really good understanding of why it’s been so difficult to get inflation back up,” Daly said at the annual American Economics Association meeting in San Diego.

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Great interview with United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer as he described the goals, objectives and outcomes of the USMCA and U.S-China Phase One agreements.
While answering a question about Wall St. journal criticism of the USMCA, Lighthizer discussed the dynamic of Wall Street -vs- Main Street as part of the bigger picture objective in the revised deal. He avoids the words “globalism” -vs- “nationalism” but the sentiment as described is there.
On China Lighthizer emphasizes the “phase one” deal is really a test to see if it is even possible to have an enforceable trade agreement between a communist state-run economy (China) and a free-market economy (U.S).

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business news to discuss the November jobs report, economic growth and the China trade discussions.
Kudlow highlights the primary point that President Trump has reestablished Main Street USA as the primary focus of policy.  U.S. companies invested in the U.S. economy are doing exceptionally well and receiving the majority benefit.  U.S. multinational companies who are invested overseas are not benefiting as much.  Wall St -vs- Main Street.

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Director Kudlow is correct, if the House can ratify the USMCA trade deal, North America will see a massive influx of investment.
In essence Titan Trump is winning the economic battle by: (a) repatriating wealth (trade policy); (b) blocking exfiltration (main street policy); (c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and (d) dismantling the post WWII Marshal plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).
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Hunter Biden, Chris Heinz and Devon Archer created an international private equity firm. It was anchored by the Heinz family alternative investment fund, Rosemont Capital.
The Rosemont group described themselves as “a $2.4 billion private equity firm co-owned by Hunter Biden and Chris Heinz,” with Devon Archer as “Managing Partner.”
As Vice-President Joe Biden (Hunter’s dad) and Secretary of State John Kerry (Chris’s dad) negotiated sensitive and high-stakes deals with foreign governments, Rosemont secured a series of exclusive financial deals with those same foreign governments. Hunter Biden and Chris Heinz made millions.  Today John Kerry endorses Joe Biden:

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President Trump held a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the sidelines of the 2019 NATO Summit in the U.K.  Against the backdrop of President Trump favoring increased tariffs against the EU to initiate a new trade deal based on reciprocity; and against the intransigence of Chancellor Merkel refusing to live up to the NATO Wales Accord and pay two percent of GDP for defense; there is some diplomatic tension.
We can sense a more determined tone from President Trumy as both he and Chancellor Merkel took questions from media. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. We had a very successful NATO meeting. I think it was one of the most successful. We’re just discussing that the best, certainly, that I’ve been — I’ve been to three of them now, and this was really something very special. There’s great spirit. A lot of people are putting up a lot of money. We have $130 billion more. And within three years, we’ll have $400 billion more put up by other countries. So that’s really something. And it was a great meeting.
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Something is shaping up in the political background around the USMCA.

Yesterday Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) sent a second letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urging USMCA ratification.  Team Trump and Team AMLO are working together against Team Pelosi & AFL-CIO Richard Trumka.
Essentially AMLO has been saying the labor provisions within the USMCA trade pact are already being put in place by Mexico, and Pelosi should quit trying to hide behind labor concerns to avoid ratification.

Tomorrow, on the eve of Thanksgiving at the request of the Trump administration, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Foreign Minister Jesus Seade and Canadian Deputy Minister Chrystia Freeland are holding a meeting to discuss the  AFL-CIO/Pelosi issues within the USMCA labor provisions.
FM Chrystia Freeland is irrelevant to the meeting; she’s a potted-plant rubber stamp for whatever scheme Pelosi is cooking. It is House Speaker Pelosi who is using her pressure over labor unions to hide behind AFL-CIO Richard Trumka and claim U.S. labor unions have issues with the USMCA labor provisions. It ain’t about labor; it is all political cover.
However, it is interesting that USTR Lighthizer, a man with the patience of Job, called Jesus Seade and Freeland to DC:

WASHINGTON – The three trade ministers from the United States, Canada and Mexico are set to meet in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the deal to replace NAFTA, seven people familiar with the plans told POLITICO.
The meeting involving U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Canadian Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Undersecretary for North America Jesús Seade comes as the Trump administration is nearing a compromise with House Democrats to make changes to the USMCA.

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Unemployment claims dropped by 8,000 last week showcasing a very strong job market for all sectors of employment.  The U.S. Dept of Labor Report shows continued strong jobs growth surprising most economic pundits.

(DOL Report – pdf page 4)

(Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with strong labor market conditions and continued job growth.

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Today President Trump has traveled to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to deliver remarks at the 9th annual Shale Insight conference.  Anticipated start time 3:40pm EDT.
UPDATE: Video Added

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Office for Trade and Manufacturing Policy’s Peter Navarro discusses the China trade negotiations, the UAW General Motors strike, U.S. tariffs in European goods, and USMCA.
On the U.S-China ‘Phase-1’ construct the key issue is going to be the enforcement mechanism to ensure any agreement has strength.  On U.S. placing tariffs on the EU due to the Airbus ruling Navarro reminds everyone the WTO ruling does not permit the EU to place tariffs on U.S. productions.  On USMCA everyone avoids telling the truth; that is  Nancy Pelosi is waiting to see what happens in the Canadian election in three days.  If Trudeau wins re-election, the USMCA will likely be scrapped (tabled) by Pelosi.

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{*Note* We are holding-back on BREXIT-EU deal outlines until we complete reading the majority of the 2,000+ pages of UK-EU legal agreement construct.}
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Energy Secretary Rick Perry appears on Fox News to discuss his departure as Secretary of Energy from the administration.
Additionally, Secretary Perry shoots down the talking points about Ukraine outlining how the administration was working throughout 2017, 2018 and 2019 to ensure corruption was addressed in order to advance the U.S. and Ukraine relationship.

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