For those not paying close attention, the G7 is in serious trouble right now.  The G7 includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and Germany.  The EU and Japan are on the verge of a central bank financial crisis.  Germany is the heart of the EU and their economy is FUBAR as a result of sanctions against Russia, their energy dependence and an internal inflation rate exceeding 30%.

The G7 spending response to the COVID pandemic, a collective decision outlined by the World Economic Forum and central bank organizers, has created a massive inflation crisis amid all attached economies.  Making matters worse the Build Back Better agenda promoting climate friendly energy policy over fossil fuels is pouring gasoline on the raging inferno of economic disruption.

The EU and Japanese central banks are tenuous at best, and the U.S. has seemingly positioned Europe and Asia for even further economic pain as a result of sanctions against Russia (EU) and a contracting U.S. economy impacting Asia.  The intentional global cleaving is not working out too well as the G7 leaders assemble for their summit in the Bavarian Alps.   This is the backdrop for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.  In essence, the G7 climate policy cannot be sustained simultaneously with the German economy surviving:

GERMANY –  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said he wants to put soaring inflation, the energy crisis and climate change at the center of the agenda when he meets fellow G7 leaders at Schloss Elmau in the Bavarian Alps.  

Germany, which holds this year’s G7 rotating presidency, is hosting the gathering of the heads of state and government of the world’s seven leading industrialized nations from Sunday through Tuesday.

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All things considered, a remarkably honest article from CNBC outlines the likelihood for a wave of retail bankruptcies.   In part the issue is driven by COVID bailout and stimulus funds that inflated the balance sheets and hid the natural contraction that was taking place in the last half of 2021 through today.  However, bar far the biggest issue is a contraction in current consumer spending due to severe cost increases in housing, food, fuel and energy.

As we have discussed at length, consumer spending patterns shifted radically in the last year.

Despite the 2021 third and fourth quarter giving the artificial impression of strong demand, inventories were climbing and productivity in the manufacturing and services dropped dramatically.   In combination these two data points both indicated a contraction in demand.

The first quarter of 2022 showed a -1.5% overall GDP.  The second quarter ends next week, and the government data will be released in the last week of July.  I predict that Q2 data will be heavily manipulated in two ways: (1) manipulation of import data via the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles; and (2) the intentional use of a lower inflation rate than currently exists in all goods.   My best guess on the fake BEA numbers is a +0.2 to +0.5% positive GDP, thereby barely avoiding the technical definition of a recession.

That said, the CNBC article outlines a very bad scenario for retailers, as the consumer spending contraction hits their profit and loss statements.

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To say the recent remarks from German Economic and Climate Minister Robert Habeck showcase the stupidity of the western sanctions would be an understatement.  In a broad energy policy announcement to the German people, Minister Habeck has announced that natural gas is now urgently being stored and built up in order to survive next winter.

Additionally, the German parliament is being called into emergency session to re-write climate laws allowing coal-fired electricity power plants to be brought back on-line.  Essentially, years of German renewable energy investments and initiatives are now being reversed in order to maintain the commitment to NATO sanctions against Russia.

You can read the full translated remarks HERE.  Some of the more stunning excerpts are below.

GERMANY – Minister Robert Habeck […] “The situation on the gas market has deteriorated in recent days. The missing quantities can still be replaced, and the gas storage tanks are still being filled, albeit at high prices. Security of supply is currently guaranteed. But the situation is serious. We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to reduce gas consumption. 

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U.S. inflation was/is driven by supply side impacts as a result of policy (Build Back Better).  The U.S. recession was/is now driven by demand side impacts that are the result of increased supply side costs.  This is the natural economic truth being denied by all levels of political leadership.

Joe Biden policy makers, specifically the U.S. treasury secretary and the federal reserve chairman, have claimed -falsely- that current inflation was/is being driven by demand. In essence, and ironically, their position means consumers are to blame for high prices.  This has been their story and they have stuck to it.  However, remember monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy.  Monetary policy cannot impact the supply side, that aspect is led by Joe Biden policy.

The Federal reserve, having denied (pretended) the supply side causation, has effectively raised interest rates (0.75%) into an economic environment where consumer demand was already contracting.  CTH has been asserting this fundamental position all year.   Here is the evidence:

US Manufacturing PMI fell dramatically to 52.4 in June 2022 from 57 in May.  This drop is well below the market and economic expectations of 56, and now points to the slowest growth and steepest drop in factory activity in almost two years.  Contractions in output and new orders are pushing the index down.

Production and new sales declined for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in mid-2020 driven by weak consumer demand.  Inflation and a drop in wholesale and retail purchases have lowered purchase orders.  The gears inside the economy are slowing to a halt.

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Yes, inflation is global; mostly.  That’s because all of the western governments and their central banks followed the exact same pandemic lockdown & spending instructions from the World Economic Forum.

The plan -as outlined publicly, was for government leaders to lockdown the economic activity (supply side), then spend to subsidize and fill the losses in economic activity (demand side), then reopen the economies using the Build Back Better agenda as a reset moving the underlying energy economy away from fossil fuels.

This was the collective plan, and they all followed the exact same playbook.  This is the origin of inflation.  The BBB plan disrupted the supply side, then triggered a reopening of the demand side while the supply remained scarce.  Simultaneous to the reopening, all former energy development processes were no longer supported by investment or policy.

In the aftermath, the energy sector was fractured and combined with higher costs for the production of all goods, that’s what is continuing this upward inflation spiral.

CANADA – Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 7.7% in May, the highest since January 1983, on gasoline prices, as well as services like hotels and restaurants, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.  Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the annual rate to rise to 7.4% in May from 6.8% in April. (read more)

U.K. – Soaring food prices pushed British consumer price inflation to a 40-year high of 9.1% last month, the highest rate out of the Group of Seven countries and one which underlines the severity of the country’s cost-of-living crunch.

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… And if they don’t, they are Russian sympathizers.

Delivering remarks from the stage built next to the White House, earlier today Joe Biden demanded that congress and states suspend gasoline taxes for 90-days in order to offset the massive price increases his energy policy has created. {Transcript Here} Additionally, Biden says any political opposition to his demand means his opponents support Russia:

“for all those Republicans in Congress criticizing me today for high gas prices in America, are you now saying we were wrong to support Ukraine?  Are you saying we were wrong to stand up to Putin?  Are you saying that we would rather have lower gas prices in America and Putin’s iron fist in Europe?  I don’t believe that.” {Direct Rumble Link}

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It will be worth watching how California Governor Gavin Newsom responds to this instruction.  California has the largest gasoline taxes in the nation and uses them to fund the majority of their left-wing policies.

Full video and transcript below.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the obvious in his senate testimony today when asked about U.S. inflation.  However, his testimony directly contradicts the White House claims.

Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), member of the Senate Banking Committee, walked through the inflation timeline and asked Chairman Powell about the cause of the escalated inflation in 2021.  Powell admitted the massive rise in inflation had nothing to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. WATCH (02:16 Prompted):

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Joe Biden gave an impromptu interview with media at the beach in Delaware early this morning.  There is a lot going on in the video of the interview below.

First, Joe Biden’s daughter, Ashley Biden (jean shorts and green shirt), is obviously on alert and assigned to the role of Joe’s handler during this outing.  Two parents asked Joe for a picture with their daughter, a little girl in a bathing suit.  It appears Ashley was nervous about the optics and made some quick moves when creepy Joe gets ‘handsy.’  WATCH:

https://youtu.be/AR4h9InKYBc

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Secondly, if you have watched the video, you will notice Joe Biden said he talked to Larry Summers this morning.  Yesterday on Meet the Press, Summers stated a recession was a certainty given the status of the economic conditions.  However, creepy Joe says today he doesn’t believe a recession is likely.

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NEC Director Brian Deese delivers a consistent blend of words, claimed to be economic policy, that make absolutely no sense.  Deese is almost as bad at parse tongue gibberish as Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris, but not quite up to their level.   Many will think Deese is uniquely unqualified. However, if you accept that Deese job is to be the distracting front man -spewing nonsense platitudes while others detonate the economic explosives- then he is being successful.

Deese appeared for two interviews, one on Fox News Sunday {SEE HERE} and on on CBS {SEE FULL INTERVIEW HERE}. Fox News (Shannon Bream) attempted zero pushback on Deese ridiculous claims.  CBS (Margaret Brennan) at least pushed back a little harder.  However, we must accept both media outlets are advancing the same corporate agenda by playing the pretend game with Deese appearances.

Deese used the word “transition” eleven times in both interviews in relationship to the economy.   Deese was never asked what this actual “transition” is that he speaks so often about.  At certain trigger points Deese gets down to political nonsense when he says what the Biden team is doing to combat inflation.  He brings up three legislative priorities that he claims will lower consumer costs: (1) raise taxes; (2) federal takeover of all Rx prices; and (3) subsidize energy prices for low-income Americans.   That’s the plan; at least that’s what his unserious word assemblies are intended to claim as a plan, and he’s sticking to it while the media nods along.  WATCH:

{Full Interview with Brennan Here}

FYI, the Brian Deese economic plan is also the Larry Summers economic plan as outlined on Meet the Press {SEE HERE}.  At this point the entire DC system, including both democrat and republican wings of the UniParty vulture, are in alignment to fundamentally change the U.S. economy, justified via climate change, and kick start their carbon trading platform.    There is no entity in/around Washington DC trying to stop the economic collapse caused by energy policy.

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This interview is nothing but gaslighting crazy talk from an insufferable ideologue who is responsible for managing the insane policy driven consequences of transitioning from oil, gas and coal into an era where windmills and solar panels provide U.S. electricity.  Janet Yellen is the decline manager.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen begins the interview by denying the U.S. economy is shrinking.  Literally in the first answer Yellen says the economy “has been growing at a very rapid rate as the labor rate has reached full employment, it’s natural now that we expect a transition to steady and stable growth.”  Obviously, in order to say the economy has been growing, Yellen needs to pretend not to know the first quarter GDP was -1.5% as measured.  But wait… it gets more ridiculous….

At 06:30 of the interview, Yellen claims with a straight face that U.S. energy policy, which includes massive amounts of new crushing regulations from Biden, is not responsible for U.S. oil and gasoline prices.   WATCH (prompted):

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