This is an interesting interview in that International Monetary Fund Globalist Director Kristalina Georgieva seems to be laying the landscape for some truthful economic news to surface on the geopolitical level; albeit keeping up the globalist pretenses around western collective energy policy.

One of the more important points Mrs. Georgieva hits on is the reopening of China, from district level COVID bubbles as a containment feature, and the likely impact it will have on global supply chains.  Mrs. Georgieva is correct on this issue.

China continued operating their industrial manufacturing base (despite COVID) because they built strict covid isolation bubbles around their industrial sectors geographically.  However, with China lifting those isolation bubbles, there is a great potential for the manufacturing sectors to be hit hard by short to medium term virus outbreaks.  This could/will have the potential ripple effect of global supply disruptions.

In an ironic twist, ‘deglobalization’ is now a 2023 catchphrase as various nations realize having their supply chains both dependent and interconnected is not good when there are interruptions.  A new discussion centering around being dependent on China is the specific issue now being raised.  However, the globalists are isolating their viewpoints only to raw material resourcing and development.  WATCH:

[Transcript] -MARGARET BRENNAN: I want you to take us around the world and kind of us give us that global view. Let’s start in China. China has been this hub of cheap manufacturing for the world, we are all so dependent on it but right now it looks like COVID cases are exploding as they start pulling back those zero COVID restrictions. What will that mean for the global economy Longterm and short-term?

GEORGIEVA: In the short term, bad news. China has slowed down dramatically in 2022 because of this tight zero COVID policy. For the first time in 40 years China’s growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth. That has never happened before. And looking into next year for three, four, five, six months the relaxation of COVID restrictions will mean bush fire COVID cases throughout China. I was in China last week, in a bubble in the city where there is zero COVID. But that is not going to last once the Chinese people start traveling.

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The New Year brings a look of forward-looking economic perspectives from major financial institutions.  Unfortunately, if the perspective of Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen is reflective of the larger institutional analysis, the financial pretending is anticipated to continue.

[Side Note: Notice how they will all start talking about ‘deglobalization’ in 2023. There’s a reason for that that I will touch on in the IMF interview to follow]

Appearing on Face the Nation Gapen accurately indicates the U.S. housing market is already in a steep economic recession, housing prices falling rapidly with a considerable amount of distance to go (-30% range), and the overall housing market will likely be in this situation for around two years.  On a macro level the Bank of America indicators line up with the general housing trajectory.  From a lending standpoint, Gapen would have specific insight.

Beyond the housing sector, Mr. Gapen starts to get sketchy.  He anticipates inflation taking 24 to 36 months to lower to the norm 2% range.  That is generally in line with CTH expectations; however, nowhere in the analysis does Gapen even mention energy costs and the overall impact to the economy from energy policy.  You will note this absence will be present in almost all financial punditries.  Mentioning “energy policy’ as a cause of economic pain is a third rail amid his peer group; it is simply not permitted.

Astute readers will note the great financial and economic pretending that surrounds the Build Back Better and Green New Deal climate change agenda will not be discussed by anyone, ever. The massive price impacts, the supply side inflation pressures, are baked into the western global economic outlooks.  It is strictly verboten to talk about climate change policy being stopped, modified, reversed or even, well, gasp, removed.  WATCH:

[TRANSCRIPT] – […] BANK OF AMERICA CHIEF ECONOMIST MICHAEL GAPEN: Happy New Year as well. Thank you for having me on.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You know, a majority of voters polled by The Wall Street Journal say that the economy is going to look and feel worse in 2023. What is your forecast?

GAPEN: So I think that’s probably true. I think we’re in a situation where the risk of recession is high, may not be a deep and prolonged one. But we’re in a situation where the economy has recovered very rapidly from- from COVID, and it’s come with a lot of inflation. And the Federal Reserve is trying to slow down the economy, to bring inflation down. And in the past, more often than not, that’s coincided with some sort of recession in the US economy and the U.S. labor market. It’s not baked in. It’s not for certain. We may be able to avoid it, but I would agree that the outlook by most people who sit in the position that I do think 2023 could be a difficult year for the U.S..

MARGARET BRENNAN: So we may be able to avoid recession?

GAPEN: Yes.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Or it could be mild?

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The ideology of these elitist minded control officers is really remarkable.  The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has given several statements to media saying policy measures must be put into place in order to stop wage growth from fueling inflation.

Think about this in the most practical of terms.  Western politicians have created massive inflation through their collective ‘Build Back Better’ energy policy.  The central banks have raised interest rates, an effort to shrink the economy by lowering energy demand, to offset the skyrocketing costs of the energy problem the politicians created.

With workers demanding pay raises to help afford the skyrocketing costs of energy, the central EU bank is now worried that wage increases will fuel inflation.

There’s a truckload of pretending needed to avoid seeing the insufferable dynamic of reality.

Political policy drives up energy costs. Central banks try to drive down energy demand.  Workers unable to afford the energy prices created by politicians, are then blamed for the inflation the political policy creates.

Sooner or later ordinary people are going to figure out this abusive cycle.

(Via Reuters) – Euro zone wages are growing quicker than earlier thought and the European Central Bank must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told a Croatian newspaper.

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As we’ve been saying for seven months, keep watching how the globalists respond to Mexico.  AMLO doesn’t want to join the economic suicide pact known as Build Back Better, or the North American version “Green New Deal.”   This puts him in a precarious place.

This sentence from a recent financial analysis article in Reuters is telling, “concerns about a U.S. recession and a trade spat Mexico is embroiled in with the United States and Canada over Lopez Obrador’s energy policy, which critics call nationalist, muddy the outlook for the peso.”  A “nationalist energy policy”?

What exactly is a “nationalist energy policy,” and why would international financial people be having fits about it?

In the past year the Mexican peso has outperformed the U.S. dollar, in part because Mexico is not following the economic roadmap, a World Economic Forum inspired united inflationary malaise as an outcome of unified energy policy.  [Side Note: The Brazilian currency was also outperforming the western bloc and dollar; but that situation has been rectified now, Bolsonaro removed, and the central bank will start contracting the economy.]

The global financial control mechanisms now start to look at the Mexican non-compliance:

(Reuters) – Mexico’s peso, which is ending 2022 with one of its strongest performances in a decade, could have its gains wiped out in 2023 after an expected end to the Bank of Mexico’s rate hikes cycle and a possible recession in top trade partner the United States.

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We accept the named legislation “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA) is a legislative misnomer intended to obfuscate the true construct of the bill.  The IRA was factually the ‘green new deal’ program packaged under the guise of an ‘inflation reduction’ premise.  However, in order to discuss the outcome of the content we have to play the game of pretending around the purpose of the legislation.

Within the IRA there was a $7,500 tax credit for American made Electric Vehicles.  The intent of the legislation was to provide incentives for U.S. consumers to purchase ‘sustainable’ and environmentally friendly electric cars, trucks, SUV’s etc made in America.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scored the bill with this legislative intent in mind.   However, the Treasury Department is now taking apart the granular details of the legislation in order to qualify foreign made vehicles for the $7,500 credit. The rules interpretation from the Treasury Dept essentially negates the CBO score, and the outcome is going to be much more expensive than initially stated.

Because the $7,500 comes in the form of a tax credit, the IRS (Treasury) is the institution making the determinations for qualification.  Treasury is changing the qualifications to permit basically any EV to qualify, by parsing a difference between a leased vehicle and a purchased vehicle.  Additionally, Treasury is changing the battery sourcing aspect by qualifying essentially any trade agreement as a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), saying the term Free Trade Agreement was undefined in the legislation.

As an outcome & simply cutting to the chase, EV batteries from just about anywhere, inside EV vehicles from basically anywhere, that are purchased as leases from just about any auto manufacturer, will qualify for the $7,500 credit. It’s all a shell game, with the Biden administration determining where the pea is located.

Dec 29 (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury Department said Thursday that electric vehicles leased by consumers starting Jan. 1 can qualify for up to $7,500 in commercial clean vehicle tax credits, a decision that makes those assembled outside North America eligible.

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In the background of international geopolitics and all things economically attached, the larger climate change agenda, the Build Back Better program, has been unfolding.

Energy driven inflation has destabilized most western economies as the various governments (politicians) and central banks (bureaucrats) work together on behalf of the corporations (World Economic Forum). All of these interests can only advance if they work together. If any individual nation breaks from the group energy agenda, their economy will thrive beyond the limits created by the BBB operation and the association of western nations.

It is with this context at the forefront where we have said to watch Mexico closely. In North America, Mexico has the least to gain from economics behind the climate change agenda. Conversely, if Mexico were to go rogue, they would gain the most. This dynamic puts Mexico in a more powerful position than most realize.

During a July 2022, meeting at the White House, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) appeared to indicate -for the first time- his understanding of his new position as the ‘Green New Deal’ (climate change) energy agenda was being deployed by the U.S. and Canada. AMLO read from a prepared script in the oval office during a public bilateral meeting with Joe Biden. AMLO’s remarks were quite remarkable in their independence.

“In our country, we shall continue producing oil throughout the energy transition.  With the U.S. investors, we are going to be establishing gas-liquefying plants, fertilizer plants, AMLO said, striking a chord that is not in alignment with Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau.  AMLO continued, “and we’re going to accomplish this with the support of thermal electric plants and also through transmission lines to produce energy in the domestic market, as well as for exports, to neighboring states in the American union, as for instance, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California.” It’s not just what he said, it’s how AMLO said it.

Keep in mind, the month before that July visit to the White House, AMLO boycotted Joe Biden’s Latin-America Summit. AMLO joined the leaders of Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras and the tiny Caribbean state of St. Vincent in refusing to attend the Biden summit because Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua were blocked from attending by the Biden administration.

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Cobalt is a mined mineral needed for all rechargeable batteries including phones, pads, laptops and Electric Vehicles (EV’s). According to Siddharth Kara, an author and expert on modern-day slavery, human trafficking and child labor, approximately 72% of all the cobalt mined globally comes from the Congo.

Within his new book “Cobalt Red: How the Blood of the Congo Powers Our Lives,” Kara outlines how slave labor and child labor work these cobalt mines. Kara appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast {Direct Rumble Link to segment} to discuss his research and findings after visiting these Congolese mines.  Contrasting the “Green Movement” claims that their efforts are to “save the planet” by switching everyone to EV’s, the issues Kara outlines are remarkable.  WATCH:

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If you visit a local library, you may discover there was a time when the focus of electricity companies was to generate and provide the most dependable, efficient, lowest cost and critical power to customers who need electricity to live.   Alas, those were in the olden days, when service providers were generally focused on improving the quality of life of their customers.

In the modern era, the horrible carbon emitters, aka customers, have become the parasite to manage.  People are now a problematic encumbrance blocking the high-minded climate and financial aspirations of the energy corporations.

Heating, cooling and comfort?  Get a grip Boomers and GenXer’s, those insufferably selfish indulgences were the priorities of yesteryear.

Yes Alice, as we try to peer through the looking glass, we discover it’s a mirror now.  The reflection is the opposite of normal, the reflection is the world of pretending.  Say hello to the modern Christmastime when you pray for coal in your stocking.

From Pennsylvania and New Jersey, westward to Illinois and Ohio and all the way south into South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and beyond, power companies are turning off the electricity to preserve and equally distribute the minimal amount of energy they are able to generate.

This my friends, is the “equitable distribution of misery.”  How weird does it feel to see that generational prediction turning into reality?

TENNESSEE – […] The TVA began instructing local power companies to reduce power usage on Friday night, and some have instituted rolling blackouts in some cities such as Nashville, Tennessee. Some local power companies have also started using rolling blackouts after the TVA asked them to reduce power usage.

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The price for a dozen eggs continues climbing as explanations turn toward blaming bird flu.  However, the avian influenza may explain a recent spike, but the longer duration of escalating food price commodities is much deeper than momentary fluctuations.  These are energy dependent products.

As CTH noted last year, watch egg prices as a general gauge for overall food inflation (eggs hit almost every process in the supply chain), and watch potato availability to gauge overall row crop stability (staple commodity on every plate, venue).

Additionally, as previously noted, as energy prices continue rising pay attention to the prices on ‘organic’ products.  Rising energy prices drive up costs for large commercially processed food supplies at a much higher rate than smaller organic production.  People are starting to notice the ‘organic’ option is almost at price parity.

Wall Street Journal – […] Wholesale prices of Midwest large eggs hit a record $5.36 a dozen in December, according to the research firm Urner Barry. Retail egg prices have increased more than any other supermarket item so far this year, climbing more than 30% from January to early December compared with the same period a year earlier, and outpacing overall food and beverage prices, according to the data firm Information Resources Inc.

For supermarkets, eggs are a staple product that most consumers pick up on trips to the grocery store, similar to milk and butter. To maintain store traffic, grocers said they have been sacrificing some profits on eggs to keep prices for consumers competitive. Some suppliers are projecting potential relief in price by February or March, but cold weather could hamper production in the near term, executives said.

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The G7 leaders have been debating the problem of African farming for quite a while. The issue surrounds the conflicts between the G7 climate change agenda and the need for Africa to develop fertilizer production to enhance their farming and crop yields.

As noted in a Reuters article from June, “the European Union is divided on how to help poorer nations fight a growing food crisis and address shortages of fertilisers caused by the war in Ukraine, with some fearing a plan to invest in plants in Africa would clash with EU green goals.”  As the argument unfolded, “the EU Commission explicitly opposed” any effort to enhance African fertilizer development, “warning that supporting fertilizer production in developing nations would be inconsistent with the EU energy and environment policies.”  

The energy development corporations, the source industry needed to create the components for nitrogen-based fertilizer, have been waiting to invest in African energy production pending the approval of western government decisions.  Addressing the issue today, Joe Biden told the African Union the United States would send an emergency $2.5 billion in food crisis aid to offset the inability of Africa to feed itself.

In essence, instead of Western government policy supporting energy production in Africa that would lead to a greater farm yield, and by extension a greater level of food independence, the Biden administration would rather restrict energy/food development in Africa and send them food subsidies; because, climate change.

(White House) – […]  President Biden announced an additional $2.5 billion in emergency aid and medium to long-term food security assistance for resilient African food systems and supply markets, which builds upon over $11 billion in U.S. humanitarian and food security assistance for this year alone.  President Biden also launched a new strategic partnership on food security between the United States and the African Union.  

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