Coming out of the pandemic related disruption, the larger story of U.S. manufacturing has been an odd blend of good data and bad data depending on the sector.  While some manufacturing was growing as a result of clearing supply chains, other sectors of manufacturing remained soft.

In total, the full supply chain rebound should have completed around the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022.

However, simultaneous with the correction within the supply chain(s), consumer purchase activity began contracting.

The consumer pullback led to very weak holiday sales last year, and a combination of increased inventories of finished goods.

Keep in mind that Maersk overseas shipping noted significant drops in orders for the movement of material in the third quarter of last year.  Considering the lag, the previously noted inventory buildup in combination with the drops in unit sales of durable goods, would generally mean lower manufacturing purchase order activity Q4 (’22) and Q1 (’23).   This reality is reflected in the actual data as reported by The Wall Street Journal:

(Via WSJ) – […] New orders for manufactured goods contracted for the sixth straight month through February, according to surveys by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing output is down 1.7% from its postpandemic peak in May 2022, according to a three-month moving average of Federal Reserve data. And the Commerce Department’s measure of civilian capital equipment orders, excluding aircraft—the building blocks of business—was down 3.4% in January from its recent high in November 2021, after adjusting for inflation.

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On July 31, 2022, According to Manchin a deal between himself, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden included his support for the green energy spending bill, in exchange for two new items in future legislation: 1) Streamlined energy permitting/regulation; and 2) Increased development of Oil, Coal, Gas.  After getting his vote, Biden, Pelosi and Schumer reneged on the deal.

Today Senator Manchin inferred he wants that promise fulfilled in order to gain his support for a debt ceiling increase and a budget package. [Transcript Below]  Manchin also hedged on his own political aspirations for 2024, saying he will make a decision at the end of this year.   WATCH:

[Transcript] – SENATOR JOE MANCHIN: Good morning, Brennan. Thank — Margaret, thanks for having me.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to start on that derailment.

SENATOR JOE MANCHIN: Yes.

MARGARET BRENNAN: The president last week praised bipartisan railway safety legislation that would have new rules for trains carrying hazardous materials, increased fines for safety violations, phase in newer cars.

Will you vote for it? Is that sufficient?

SENATOR JOE MANCHIN: Yes, I’m going to be supporting that. We need to do it.

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Earlier today President Trump made a bold policy announcement, to create modern cities throughout the nation with the low cost use of a small portion of federally controlled land.  A massive investment in a new infrastructure initiative that would rebuild and reignite the America First economic engine. {Direct Rumble Link}

“President Trump unveiled his new Quantum Leap plan that will create a new American future and modernize communities across the country. By building new cities, investing in transportation, lowering the cost of living for everyone, and modernizing public spaces across the country, President Trump has laid out a bold strategy to revolutionize the American Standard of Living.” more

While almost every other political candidate debates the best process for dividing up diminishing economic pie, this initiative doesn’t make the pie bigger, it creates new ones.  This is bold leadership pushing the boundaries. WATCH:

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[Transcript] – Past generations of Americans pursued big dreams and daring projects that once seemed absolutely impossible. They pushed across an unsettled continent and built new cities in the wild frontier. They transformed American life with the interstate highway system—magnificent it was. And they launched a vast network of satellites into orbit all around the earth.

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It’s not just the United Kingdom, but as we await the latest figures from monthly U.S. data, the statistics from the U.K. are hitting the newswires.  According to Reuters, food inflation in the U.K. is currently 17.1%  The primary driver of the skyrocketing food costs is the energy cost associated with the fast turnover categories.

With prices increasing 17.1% yet net sales only increasing 8.1%, there is a substantial impact in unit food sales.  British customers are buying much less to offset the fact they are paying much more.   This trend is not just in the U.K. we have seen the same trend in U.S. data as families are being squeezed at the grocery store.

The prices on name branded products like Kraft and Heinz are leading the escalating food prices. Just last week I noticed 6oz Kraft Philadelphia cream cheese was $6.99, and a 24 oz. bottle of Heinz ketchup at over $8.  Dairy products are leading the way with the most rapid increases in price.  It appears that we are entering the fourth wave of food inflation currently.

LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) – British grocery inflation hit 17.1% in the four weeks to Feb. 19, another record high, dealing the latest blow to consumers struggling with a cost-of-living crisis, industry data showed on Tuesday.

Market researcher Kantar said prices are rising fastest in markets such as milk, eggs and margarine. It said UK households now face an additional 811 pounds ($978) on their annual shopping bills if they don’t change their behaviour to cut costs.

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Everything about the progressive worldview of control is connected; the trick is to identify the priority that forms the motive of the connection.  In the example of U.S. involvement in assisting the control efforts of Nigerian progressives, the priority is energy and the climate change agenda.

Georgia’s twice-failed leftist gubernatorial candidate, Stacy Abrams, joins the globalist cause in seeking to “assist election efforts” in Africa’s oil rich nation of Nigeria.

If you have followed the geopolitical bouncing ball, you will likely have context for the priorities of western political leadership as it pertains to controlling African democracies.

[A cliff notes summary HERE]

The larger picture is the World Economic Forum and the Western Leadership alignment to control energy development in the African continent.  In addition to vast mineral deposits, there are oil and natural gas interests.

You might remember last year when the G7 were debating geopolitical policy. Some in the EU and western alliance said let the brown people die, climate is more important. Others were saying, if they allow mass starvation just to retain the WEF climate ideology, they may lose influence in the world.

The debate was raging, as noted by Reuters: “the European Union is divided on how to help poorer nations fight a growing food crisis and address shortages of fertilizers caused by the war in Ukraine, with some fearing a plan to invest in plants in Africa would clash with EU green goals.”  As the argument unfolded, “the EU Commission explicitly opposed” any effort to enhance African fertilizer development, “warning that supporting fertilizer production in developing nations would be inconsistent with the EU energy and environment policies.” {link}

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Oh boy, FOR ME there isn’t enough tinfoil folks.   Then again, FOR US, we have previously been outlining the “watch Mexico in 2023” oil production and energy issue for several months now.

Three oil refinery fires at three different facilities on the same day… isn’t good.  Because it just seems to be too coincidental to be coincidental.

MEXICO CITY, Feb 23 (Reuters) – Three fires broke out on Thursday at different facilities in Mexico and the United States operated by state-owned Mexican oil company Pemex, leaving five missing and eight others injured as of Thursday evening. (read more)

Making tinfoil matters worse, I previously emphasized, “The U.S. and Canada are going to push every possible political pressure point in order to force Mexico to change energy policy.  The stakes are high. It is going to be remarkable to watch what happens as this battle takes place. Watch Mexico in 2023.” {LINK}  A few weeks later, with more data assembled, I added, “I’m not talking about little threats, or ordinary economic pressure points; watch closely how the U.S threats are established.  The ideologues around Joe Biden will seek to destroy AMLO if he does not go along with the energy change effort. {LINK}

The origin of the issue traces back to July of 2022, when Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador visited the White House {Go Deep}.  During a jaw dropping statement delivered publicly from the Oval Office, AMLO told Joe Biden he was not going to join the U.S. and Canada in shutting down oil use and refining capacity for low cost gasoline:

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First things first, history may not always repeat, but it always rhymes.  Secondly, history tells us that only two things have ever pulled what we now call “western nations” out of a collective economic depression; (1) war, and (2) housing starts.

If you accept the WEF climate control agenda of a ‘managed transition‘, where economies are reduced in size to match lowered energy production, as generally speaking akin to a western economic depression.… then, you begin to ask the logical question.  How do the managers avoid the consequences?

If global (non BRICS) economic contraction is akin to a western economic depression, I would argue the consequences are identical.  Then, when major economies are in a state of shrinking and the citizens are feeling the horrible effects, something large is needed to change the economic equation.

With central banks raising interest rates to achieve the policy supporting contraction, the option for ‘housing starts’ to change the dynamic is removed.  That leaves, ‘war’.

President Putin and Chairman Xi are not stupid men.  They are big picture strategists.

♦DATA POINT – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to suspend his country’s involvement in the last remaining arms control treaty with the U.S. came as a disturbing surprise to multiple former officials who negotiated the pact and nonproliferation experts committed to ending the expansion of nuclear forces. (read more)

Can you blame him?  The Western Alliance has already blamed Putin for the global food crisis they created by the World Economic Forum energy policy shift.  The Western Alliance accepts no responsibility for advancing hostility -through NATO expansion- on to Russia’s doorstep.  The Western Alliance has attempted to sanction Russia out of the global economy.  With the same Western Alliance now positioning for war, why would Putin adhere to their limitations?

♦DATA POINT – Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Moscow for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the plan. (read more)

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Follow the bouncing ball of consequence….

(Via Daily Mail) Vegetable rationing could last for ‘weeks’, it was warned today, after Morrisons joined Asda to became the second major supermarket to limit sales of certain items. 

Perishables like tomatoes, potatoes, cucumber and broccoli have been restricted to just two or three per customer in a host of stores up and down the country.

The crisis has developed in recent weeks due to soaring energy costs which have forced British farmers to switch off greenhouses as they desperately try to make ends meet – leaving a dearth of home-grown produce. (read more)

While it is prudent to remind everyone how fortunate we are to have Florida, California and Mexico for North American vegetable supplies, ie. no dramatic supply shortages, the energy price pressure being applied by Biden policy will lead to even higher consumer prices for all row crops.

18 months ago (Oct 2021), CTH first strongly recommended restarting victory gardens at home. The same recommendation only strengthens.

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I do not see anything on the horizon that will stop this continued dropping in existing home sales.  Financial analysts keep expected a month-over-month uptick, which would indicate the floor of the housing market has been reached.  However, that ‘uptick’ never happens, and each report shows the month-over-month number continuing negative, meaning the slope of the decline is continuing and no bottom is visible.

The gaslighting financial media keep using terms like “the pace of the decline is slowing” in an effort to continue supporting the policies that are ultimately contracting the entire economy.  The reality is behind the phrase “transitioning to the new economy,” which, by the very nature of the approach, means this is a managed decline in overall economic activity.

The temperature on Fed stove is slowly being raised, so the frogs in the economic pot don’t notice it.

(Reuters) -U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.

[…] Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, when the nation was grappling with the foreclosure crisis. That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.

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Yikes, this place was a foundry so you can imagine flying molten metals and debris. Scary stuff.

According to News5 Cleveland, one person was killed, and more than a dozen injured when the I. Schumann & Co, brass and alloy manufacturer plant exploded.  Video footage shows the aftermath {Direct Rumble Link}

News5 – Authorities responded to a manufacturing business near Bedford Monday afternoon after a massive explosion caused fires and blew debris over neighboring businesses, streets and cars. Multiple injuries have been reported.

It happened at I. Schumann & Co., located in the 22500 block of Alexander Road in Oakwood. The business is a brass and bronze alloy manufacturer.

The company released the following statement about the explosion:

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