This video interview segment was sent to me today along with a “wow, you were right” message.  Apparently, the interview took place a few weeks ago (it’s new to me), but the admissions within it are quite remarkable.

The CNBC discussion surrounds inflation and the federal reserve raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is talking about the jobs report, inflation and the intention of the federal reserve to continue raising interest rates until they achieve 2% inflation, regardless of consequence.  Kashkari doesn’t hedge on the latter issue of consequence; he affirms with absolute guarantee the fed will keep raising rates until the economy shrinks enough such that 2% inflation is achieved.  However, watch what happens when Joe Kernan takes that outlook and overlays “supply side” energy policy.  WATCH (10:22 prompted):

The issue is quite simple, really.  When additional oil, coal and natural gas development is blocked as an outcome of policy, energy prices jump massively.  We are seeing 2022/2023 price increases in electricity, home heating, fuel, gasoline, natural gas and other total energy price outcomes in the 60%+ range.

As a direct outcome of energy policy, all of the downstream products and services have massive upward supply side price pressure.  When the input prices are driving upward of 60%, the downstream prices increase accordingly.  Farming costs, fertilizer, feeding, transportation costs, food at retail and wholesale, and just about every petroleum-based product, which is almost everything, increases in price accordingly.

If supply side energy price increases are pushing +60%, and the Fed will only accept a 2% inflation output result, the only method of achieving the desired result is to shrink energy demand.  This is the goal of the current Fed monetary policy.  In this interview Kashkari admits the dynamic for the first time in public.

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John Boyd Jr., President of the National Black Farmers Association appears on Newsmax TV to discuss the ongoing issue of higher farm input costs.  Energy costs, fertilizer costs, fuel costs as well as all packing and distribution costs that are associated with petroleum manufacturing, are continuing to drive farm costs throughout the supply chain.

After a review of the current farm output status, there is a very strong possibility we will see the fourth wave of food inflation hit this spring, in combination with several manufacturing and production facilities.  Again, the lack of consumer spending on durable goods has moderated the price in hard goods (supplies up, demand down); however, the highly consumable products like food, fuel and energy continue to experience upward price pressure as a direct result of Biden energy policy.  WATCH:

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If consumers could eat missiles and weapons, the U.S. government would be offsetting the costs.  Unfortunately, for actual farming products, there is no government attention, policy or support.  Apparently, food is still not considered a national security issue.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a jobs report yesterday [DATA LINK] that has stunned the professional financial class.   However, those who have followed the BLS data assemblies were laughing – not surprised.  Eventually, if this continues, the BLS pretzel logic will start using terms like “eleventy.”

Throughout 2022, the BLS modified the underlying data they used to assemble their jobs reporting.  The latest release shows that 517,000 jobs were gained in the labor market, despite every other economic indicator showing we are in an economy of contraction.  The question becomes, why the disconnect?

There are two surveys that make up the BLS reporting.  The Household survey is conducted by calling people and just asking if they are employed.  The Payroll survey is conducted by reviewing large and medium businesses, no small businesses are included, and that plays a role in the disconnect.

Since the spring of last year, the two surveys have completely disconnected from each other.   The household survey finds a net gain of 12,000 jobs in the last three quarters; the Payroll survey shows gains of 2.7 million jobs during the same time.

ZeroHedge did a good dive on the issue (SEE HERE), and their analysis reports, “[…] the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million! So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”

Additionally, Forbes dove into the data (SEE HERE) and reached a similar conclusion, the BLS data is all nonsense covered in statistical noise.

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Not only does the buck not stop with Biden, the installed occupant of the White House refuses to admit the buck even started with him. It did!

During remarks to the press today, even Brian Deese looked stunned as Joe Biden incredulously claimed he didn’t cause the rampant inflation that is crushing middle class Americans. Oh, he started it alright…. He not only started it, but he also created it.

The combination of the January 2021 immediate move to block any domestic energy development, in combination with the April 2021 unneeded explosion of deficit spending triggered both a supply side and demand side inflationary impact; with the former continuing to put massive upward pressure on prices still. WATCH:

The lies from the lying, liar who lies, just flow so easily from his mouth.

A pox on all their houses.

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This is a topic we have covered extensively, and it is great to see Tucker Carlson questioning the sudden alignment of various elements that are creating a very real food insecurity problem.

The #1 factor in the shortage of food production is the newly emboldened ‘western energy policy‘ and the impact energy has on everything from field (fertilizer) to fork (distribution).  Other factors include government policy that blocks food development (Dutch, Irish and Sri Lanka Farmers), a sudden uptick in food facilities having major fires and damage, and a series of issues with the feed that goes into the production of proteins.

This is all happening as the advancement of insects as a more “sustainable” protein replacement is being advanced by the same western governments.  However, if you happen to notice that all of the issues travel in the same direction, you are a conspiracy theorist, or something.  WATCH:

We have been watching the predictable outcomes surrounding the western government shift to change energy policy for almost two years.  Approximately a year ago we first said, “the absence of food will change things.”

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There is a pending energy issue looming just beyond the horizon that is going to become a major issue very soon.   Electricity rates, natural gas costs and home heating oil prices increased massively due to Joe Biden energy policy.  However, things are likely to get much worse in a few months.

On the issue of oil and gasoline prices, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has dropped 40% since Joe Biden began using it to offset massive global prices increases in oil.  However, Biden is doing nothing to increase production and has not engaged energy producers in conversation to expand domestic production. Non pretending warning HERE.

Ultimately what this means is another wave of sicky price increases for gasoline are coming fast.

Additionally, Mark Wolfe, director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), is warning that continued pressure on natural gas supplies by exporting U.S. production to Europe is going to make our electricity rates go even higher as more than 40% of U.S. electricity generated comes from the use of natural gas.  Wolfe wrote a letter in October to Energy Secretary Granholm [SEE HERE], and the situation is unfolding exactly as he warned.

Electricity rates have jumped massively in the past year, and it looks like they are going to continue to rise.  The spring and summer of 2023 looks to deliver another round of higher oil prices, higher natural gas prices, higher electricity prices and higher gasoline prices.   Which brings me to the question…

It is challenging to find solid data (without noise) on regional electricity, home heating and natural gas prices. However, Treehouse readers consistently provide the most accurate assessments of reality on the ground.  You guys are the experts in checkbook economics. So, I ask you the question:

How much have your electricity, natural gas and/or home heating costs increased in the past year?

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For his weekly monologue, Neil Oliver outlines the insufferable fools that are constructing the path to Agenda 2030 and the World Economic Forum dictates that form the baseline to “save the planet” from climate change.

As you listen or read the word picture that Oliver paints, you might remember the CTH article from over a decade ago about what the “fundamental change” Barack Obama was outlining, really meant.  Well, here we are, a decade closer to the utopian goal – and the picture is now close enough for all to see.  WATCH: 

[Transcript] – Nothing less than our way of life is under threat now. A population distracted by propaganda about one existential threat after another – pandemics, nuclear war, climate crisis – is being herded into an unrecognizable future.

What was done in the name of Covid was grotesque – a violation of the rights of billions of people. Having seen what they can get away with, our so-called leaders have moved on, broadening their scope, as greedy for more as kids left unsupervised in a sweetie shop.

What is happening now, all around us, is the relentless erosion not just of our rights and liberties, but of our lives. It is so blatant – what’s happening – it’s hard to see it for what it is, which is bare-faced daylight robbery.

After Covid, the C-word that’s supposed to be on everyone’s lips … drummed into us night and day by the same complicit media that drives everything else … is climate – Climate crisis, in fact. Two c-words for the price of one.

From all sides, we are bombarded with predictions of the end of the world. Predictions, remember? Computer modelling … the crystal-ball-gazing of the scientific world.

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President Trump transmitted a message to congress, warning them not to cut Social Security and Medicare {Direct Rumble Link}.  Many politicians and pundits will look at Trump’s position from the perspective of it being good to campaign for older voters, but that’s not the core of his reasoning.

In 2016 CTH was the first place to evaluate the totality of President Trump’s economic policies; specifically, as those policies related to the entitlement programs around Social Security and Medicare.  We outlined the approach Trump was putting forth and the way he was approaching the issue.   In the years that followed, he was right.  He was creating a U.S. economy that could sustain all of the elements the traditional political class were calling “unsustainable.”

Before getting to the details, here’s his video message and policy as delivered yesterday. WATCH:

Fortunately, we do not have to guess if President Trump is correct. We have his actual economic policy results to look at and see how the expansion of the economy was creating the type of growth that would sustain Social Security and Medicare.  This was/is MAGAnomics at work.

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The European Union is hopping mad that Joe Biden was able to pass the “Green New Deal” (aka Inflation Reduction Act) and generate hundreds of billions in government subsidies for climate friendly initiatives.   Essentially, this is an economic war over who can do socialism better.

Fearing the EU may lose their green position, the European Union is now promising to fight back by spending even more, bigger, sums of taxpayer funds to subsidize their green ‘climate change’ energy economy.

If Biden plans to transfer hundreds of billions to corporations as structural enhancements for permanent energy changes, the EU will meet or beat that subsidy scheme. So sayeth, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

(Via Reuters) – The European Union responded on Tuesday to U.S. moves to boost its energy transition with its own plans to make life easier for green industry, saying it would mobilize state aid and a sovereignty fund to keep firms from moving to the United States.

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen told the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos that the moves would be part of the EU’s Green Deal industrial plan to make Europe a centre for clean technology and innovation.

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Given the fulsome context of the latest ideological alignment coming from the North American Summit, I am entirely certain the ordinary people in the U.S. and Canada do not have any idea just how badly things are likely to deteriorate in the near future.  However, for the ordinary people of Mexico, already living in a situation of day-to-day survival, they will not likely note any difference.

White House occupant Joe Biden, Mexican President Lopez-Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered remarks yesterday at the conclusion of their trilateral discussions. You can watch the entire speech set HERE with the full transcript below.  What follows is a painful, albeit brutally honest, assessment of the remarks and the predictable future they contain.

AMLO is a soft socialist but has previously indicated his tendency toward economic nationalism.  Trudeau is a modern leftist and a true globalist at heart.   Biden is a puppet for the modern American political left and economically concerned only for his personal crime syndicate financial situation.  Behind Biden’s politics is a blend of Obama domestic ideology and a willingness to align with interventionist foreign policy that benefits his personal financial interests.

♦ IMMIGRATION – On the issue of mass illegal immigration, Trudeau can wax philosophically about the virtues of multiculturalism and diversity because the United States provides a 2,500-mile migration filtration and border protection zone.  For the United States, Joe Biden speaks about the endless ability of America to absorb millions of migrants in the sake of humanity. Biden’s position has little to do with the economic damage created by mass migration because he and his leftist allies are disconnected from the chaos, protected by walls and personal security.

On the issue of illegal migration, it is AMLO’s position that carries the most consequence because Mexico is the funnel control mechanism.  It is clear in his remarks that AMLO is a socialist on the issue of unlimited migration, and he has no compulsion to stop the flow of human trafficking from south and central America into the United States.

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