If you are concerned about the economics of American life, the first step is to understand the financial influences that were put into place by President Obama, then again with Obama’s team using the auspices of Joe Biden.

President Trump is rapidly untangling the tentacles of Obama’s “share the wealth” exfiltration policy, and he will achieve success on a scale most economic analysts cannot fathom.  Traditional financial media, including those who follow the influences of Wall Street are constrained by their need to retain pretenses.  However, President Trump and his economic team are very clear-eyed and focused.

We are already seeing major drops in core energy prices including gasoline.  These decreases will have downstream impacts on all consumer goods, and we will notice a significant drop in food prices in two steps.

The first will be moderate and the result of harvest one cost decreases. The second price drop will be even greater and will come as a result in major farm costs for the second harvest sequence. By Thanksgiving 2025, lowered energy prices in combination with ‘food prepared at home’ price drops will be the leading cause of a major decline in inflation.

In the background of this domestic outcome, the April 2nd tariffs will start to ripple through durable goods.  Initially, there will be waves and fluctuations as some durable goods prices increase and other durable goods prices decrease.  The more the components of the product are domestically manufactured, the more the price of the end product will drop in price.

As a result, the aggregate downward pressure (higher domestic content) will exceed the upward pressure (higher import content component goods) and overall prices for durable goods will decline.  This deflationary pressure point will increase over time as the end of the Marshal Plan starts to return dollars to the United States.

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appears on CBS News to outline how the MAGAnomic tariff program immediately creates positive outcomes when President Trump identifies the specific targets.

As Lutnick appropriately notes, the EU has received one-way tariff benefit since the creation of the Marshal Plan in 1945.  President Trump is on track to finally end this exfiltration of American wealth.  Lutnick cuts through the nonsense and delivers a very non-pretending reality as he outlines how Canada doesn’t stop fentanyl, and Mexico doesn’t stop migration caravans.

This is an excellent explanatory outline of how President Trump paints the target, then Commerce Secretary Lutnick supports the targeting, and how foreign nations immediately respond to change their approach. WATCH:

As we notice today, for the first time since last year the Consumer Price Index now shows inflation slowing rapidly [CPI DATA HERE] as basic essential prices on energy and gasoline are dropping quickly and all downstream products start dropping in sequence.

Here is our current status after one month: – mortgage rates are down – egg prices are down – gas prices are down – overall inflation dropping – illegal immigration stopped at the border – wages going up – foreign aid shut down – woke initiatives being removed – massive manufacturing investments ongoing.

Hey, it’s winning folks, and it has only just begun.  Lutnick is absolutely correct.

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For many of us who walk the deep weeds of honest economic analysis, this is the moment we have been waiting for.

Second only to the elimination of the U.S-Marshal Plan, which is scheduled to end April 2, 2025, the structural implementation of North American tariffs against Mexico and Canada provides the most significant opportunity for GDP expansion, jobs, wage increases and massive economic gains in the United States.

Simultaneous to the tariffs scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, President Trump notes U.S. food prices are positioned for major supply-demand changes that will benefit all American consumers.  What President Trump notes in the Truth Social message below, is a reality we experienced in 2018/2019 as the result of national agriculture supply.

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White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC on Monday that the inflationary impact from any tariffs would be “second-order small, so I don’t see the president wavering on any of this, because he knows in order to get to a world in which America is strong and prosperous, with real wages going up and (more) factory jobs. This is the path that he’s chosen.” (more)

CTH outlined the prediction for ’18/’19 back in 2016 when we discussed what happens when the American food supply equation is modified to focus on domestic production to the benefit of domestic consumers.   The food supply chain will shift, slowly at first and then ultimately by around Thanksgiving of this year (fall harvest) we will see major price drops in the American food basket.

There are going to be major opposition forces, notably related to decades of Big Ag exfiltration, screaming that U.S. consumers will see higher prices.  However, as previously experienced/outlined these claims are entirely false. We will see major drops in food prices as a result of a more balanced U.S production-import/export dynamic.

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is at the operational center of the MAGAnomic policy hub.  Secretary Lutnick is the pivot point to the technical systems that will pay down the deficit and balance the USA budget. {Direct Rumble Link Here}

In this lengthy interview with Bret Baier, Secretary Lutnick talks about some of the policy proposals, direct actions of the government and economic systems that he and President Trump are putting into place that will grow Main Street and fuel the golden era in American economic growth.  Well worth watching: 

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April 2nd, 2025, begins the reciprocal tariff program for all nations.

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Together with cabinet members from Commerce, the EPA and Energy, President Trump signed two executive orders today and holds yet another lengthy impromptu press conference.

The first XO was an order to remove federal COVID-19 mandates in education. No more COVID vaccines are federally mandated for school attendance.  The second XO is targeting the energy sector to unleash American energy independence [SEE HERE]. The Energy XO encompasses the revitalization of energy infrastructure and creating access to federal energy resources.

Additionally, keeping with a new process of holding impromptu press availabilities, President Trump took several questions from the media about ongoing current events including the meetings taking place in Europe around the Russia -v- Ukraine conflict.  WATCH:

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The press availability allows President Trump to speak directly to events as they unfold. It is remarkable transparency that cuts through the ability of the media to frame current issues.  A very smart communication strategy.

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Today, President Donald J Trump signed an executive order triggering the first ever system of “reciprocal trade tariffs,” a seismic change in U.S. trade policy that will also consider the respective nation’s VAT (Value Added Tax) tariff.

Within the executive order [as outlined], the Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative will consider foreign industry subsidies, and non-monetary tariff barriers as part of the determination of the tariff levied.  This is a stunning shift in U.S trade agreements that will cut through all the angles being deployed to avoid U.S. tariffs and block U.S exports into their country.

The policy will pressure foreign nations to lower their trade barriers to U.S. goods and eliminate disparity in foreign trade agreements.  One big example will be the impact on the EU through the continuing Marshall Plan.  The EU will now face reciprocal tariffs and no longer benefit from one-way tariff acceptance. There are obviously no tariffs on products made inside the USA.

With “reciprocal tariffs” the Commerce Dept and USTR will now determine the trade imbalances with each individual country and will evaluate each FTA (Free Trade Agreement), one-by-one to deconflict the trade imbalance.  Direct tariffs, subsidies, regulatory hurdles, non-monetary trade barriers and hidden export subsidies will be addressed as part of the reciprocity evaluation.  This is a completely new dynamic in the era of modern global trade and economics.

During the executive order signing event, President Trump took questions from the media. WATCH:

Between now and April 1st, each individual trade agreement will be evaluated with consideration for all facets of the cost for American companies to export to the evaluated nation.  Direct tariffs, Value Added Taxes (VAT), state subsidies and non-monetary regulatory tariff barriers, will be determined for each nation.  That nation will then be made aware of the tariff against each sector within their export system to the United States.

Effective April 2, 2025, President Trump will then have the tariff data provided by the USTR and Secretary of Commerce. President Trump will determine when the reciprocal tariff will be triggered and will likely engage in discussions with the leaders of the foreign nations.

These fireside chat-style impromptu pressers during executive order signings are awesome.  The revolutionary change in government transparency and communication is, well, quite literally historic and stunning.  The media can ask questions in real-time as the specific policy is implemented and explained, while simultaneously the ability of the media to shape an anti-Trump policy narrative is removed.

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If you have followed the arc of Tech, Peter Thiel recruiting JD Vance, the creation of Palantir, the funding of Vance’s senatorial run, and eventually the roadmap to connect Vance to Trump, this is a video speech you absolutely must not miss. JD Vance was sent to the AI Summit for a reason.

JD Vance talks at the AI summit in Paris, France, about his core mission, his core purpose inside current political influence. This is the very origin of his legacy, unfolding in real time. Vice-President JD Vance talks about Artificial Intelligence, the future and the Trump administration position.

Vice President JD Vance warned European leaders against heavily regulating U.S. tech companies and said excessive efforts by the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence could stymie its growth, during an AI summit in Paris Tuesday that marks his first foreign trip since taking office. WATCH:

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Do you feel more or less confident about the future, having watched these remarks?

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Get ready for a key geopolitical battle; the fight to end the Marshall Plan.

Since the end of World War II, the USA has permitted a system of one-way trade rules that allowed Europe to rebuild on the backs of the American economy.  A series of trade tariffs against U.S. goods was imposed to raise funds for the reconstruction.  Those tariffs never ended; the Marshall Plan continues through today.

Additionally, as a measure to allow the EU to focus internally, the USA provided most of the national security protection for the entire region and the American taxpayer funded U.S. military operations throughout Europe so the EU could spend defense money on their rebuilding.   Again, that never really ended; and the USA maintains the largest majority of NATO military spending.

President Trump has stated his intention to reset both dynamics.  To lower the USA footprint within NATO, demand every NATO member meet its financial obligations, and to reset the trade and tariff system to create equity and reciprocity; thereby effectively ending the Marshall Plan.

The aggregate European Union does not like this Trump trade agenda, nor are they willing to spend more on their own defense.  Today, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held a press briefing where she spoke about the looming negotiations with President Trump, and stated the EU will never permit financial, economic or military equity.  The EU will fight any effort to stop the Marshall Plan. WATCH:

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There are trillions at stake.

It is always, always, about the economics of the thing.

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President Trump signs a batch of Executive Orders and takes questions from the assembled press pool in the oval office.

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Today at 10:30am former North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will appear before the Senate Energy Committee as part of his confirmation process for Interior Secretary.  Livestream Links Below: 

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