It is worth noting the date, time and general information released within an innocuous tweet today from President Donald Trump:

The geopolitical confrontation between the U.S. and China is the big picture.  There is a tremendous amount of noise surrounding other media-advanced current events; but the real issue of generational consequence is between President Trump and Chairman Xi.
In advance of the midterm election Beijing pulled-back as part of their strategy to wait out the results from the U.S. midterm election.  The ‘Red Dragon‘ play was to reengage after Trump after the election hoping for a weakened enemy.
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More fantastic MAGAnomic numbers today to bolster the great news from yesterday.  ADP/Moody’s private payroll analysis shows 227,000 jobs gained in October, and September’s revised actual payroll numbers increased from 218k to 230k.
The ADP hiring analysis reflects continued strong jobs growth across the U.S. with private sector employment increasing by 227,000 jobs in October.  This exceeds the earlier projections where analysts were expecting 189,000 new jobs added during the month.

The October payroll increase was the highest since February 2018.   Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest employment cost summary today showing overall wage growth in September of 2.8% year-over-year.
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First the wonky stuff.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CBCCI) has jumped again for October and now measures the highest current sentiment among consumers since 2000.   The CCI now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September.   Additionally, the future outlook of consumers, known as the “Expectations Index” (consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions) increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month.  More DATA winnamins.
What does that mean?  Well, it means middle-America feels GREAT about now, next week, next month, and well into next year.  Additionally, now that the winnamins are starting to catch up to them, the pontificating wonkified actuaries will begin to project a splendidly “strong” holiday season.  Duh!  They’re always playing catch-up. LOL.

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The key to understanding MAGAnomics is to focus on the middle-class.  If the middle-class is thriving and doing well, all of the economic indicators will tell the same story.  MAGAnomic benefactors (ordinary working people outside the investment class) are scantly impacted by the Stock Market.
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Campaign Manager Brad Parscale releases the latest ad from the Trump campaign.

“This dramatic, high-quality ad depicts the new optimism of a working mom and the very real way that the future of her family is at stake in this election. The ad offers a vivid warning that only by electing Republicans on November 6 can we ‘choose the right future’ for our children. It speaks to all Americans to get out and vote for the GOP so President Trump’s booming economy and inspirational changes for hard working American families can continue in the long run.” ~ Brad Parscale

Text “TRUMP” to 88022 to stay up to date on the latest campaign initiatives.
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Some have called him the Brazilian Trump, a populist candidate for the presidency. His mantra: “Brazil Above Everything, God Above Everyone”.  The professional political elites who rule within international circles have been throwing every attack possible at candidate Jair Bolsonaro.
Two-months-ago his left-wing political opposition stabbed him in the liver in an attempted assassination.  Bolsonaro believes in open market free-trade; Brazil-first nationalism, and protecting the integrity of the Brazillian national identity.
Today he wins the presidency.  The global progressive movement is going bananas…

(Via Associated Press) 7:50pm – Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal has declared far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro the next president of Latin America’s biggest country.
With 96 percent of ballots counted, Bolsonaro has 55.5 percent of the votes. Leftist Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party has 44.5 percent.

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House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady discusses the current economic growth and the GOP policy initiatives behind tax proposals.
Chairman Brady emphasizes an intent to make the current middle-class tax cuts permanent in the next legislative session if Republicans can do well in the midterm election.  One of the benefits from previously ‘unexpected’ (by CBO) MAGAnomic growth is the baseline calculations for ‘revenue neutral’ did not factor in the current GDP growth rate.  [All previous Congressional Budget Office forecasts were underestimated.]
As Rep Brady outlines President Trump is committed to empowering Main Street, not Wall Street, as the driving force behind U.S. economic growth. [The essence of MAGAnomics.]  Every.Single.Trump.Policy targets support to Main Street. Period.

The Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has released the first estimate of the third quarter GDP growth for June, July and August 2018 (full pdf below).  The rate of economic growth in Q3 is estimated at 3.5%, exceeding most forecasts of slightly more than three percent.  The second quarter growth was 4.2%.
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The Central American migration force is gaining additional followers as they continue their march toward the southern U.S. border. In an effort to stop a political and diplomatic crisis between the U.S. and Mexico, outgoing Mexican President Pena Nieto offered assistance and asylum for the migrants to remain in Mexico. The growing swarm declined the offer… the looming crisis grows.  [PBS Video Report Here]

ARRIAGA, Mexico (AP) — Several thousand Central American migrants turned down a Mexican offer of benefits if they applied for refugee status and stayed in the country’s two southernmost states, vowing to set out before dawn Saturday to continue their long trek toward the U.S. border.

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The Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has released the first estimate of the third quarter GDP growth for June, July and August 2018 (full pdf below).  The rate of economic growth in Q3 is estimated at 3.5%, exceeding most forecasts of slightly more than three percent.  The second quarter growth was 4.2%.

“Defying ‘conventional wisdom’ once again, 3.5 percent growth is the latest sign that the Trump economy continues to surge,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The President’s actions from deregulation to tax reform have supercharged the American economy, driving it to new heights.”

Overall the 3.5% growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.
Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.
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This is not financial advice. CTH simply explains economic influences and how they show up visibly in various KPI’s.  This is not financial advice.
The current Wall Street stock market sell-off is (in majority) mostly an outcome of investors betting Republicans are going to lose the House of Representatives and the MAGA economic policy will be blocked by a Democrat controlled House.

The U.S. Stock Market is factoring in a House of Representatives election loss for the Trump economic agenda.  Predictably, Democrats will target the administration with legislative challenges, investigations and court cases focused on regulations and tax policy.
Democrats have announced their intent to target President Trump cabinet members for investigations; the administration will be bound up in committee oversight; Trump’s family business interests and taxes will be part of a renewed investigation; and all of the MAGAnomic policy will immediately stop amid the reistance.  That’s the reality.
From the perspective of 5-year-view investors: If you think the 2018 mid-term election will result in a Democrat controlled house of representatives; with Adam Schiff as Speaker; then getting out of the market is not an unreasonable position.
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Well, there it is.  Quietly within the deliberate words from Vice-President Mike Pence a revelation that explains the origination of the Central American invasion force.  For those who are not deep in the geopolitical weeds, the subtlety can pass unnoticed; for those who travel within the deepest international conflicts, Pence’s words here are as subtle as a brick through a window:

[…] “Financed by Venezuela; and sent North to challenge our sovereignty and our border”…

[wpvideo tXWLlFMs]
Announcing the migrant caravan is “financed by Venezuela” is a direct notification the Central American invasion force is being funded by Russia and China.  Venezuela doesn’t have any money to sustain its own operational government – let alone a 10,000 person convoy.  Venezuela is entirely reliant upon massive investment from Russia and China.
In fact China owns 49% of Venezuela’s state run PDVSA energy production. A collateral system where Beijing takes oil as payment for prior loans the Maduro regime cannot pay back.  With the crippling treasury department sanctions President Trump put on Venezuela last year, Trump has punched Maduro and Xi-Jinping hard.
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