The synergy, flow and timing of the U.S. trade and economic team is just a marvel; a brilliant assembly of perfectly in-tune economic and trade professionals.
As President Trump touched down in the U.K. to attend the two-day NATO summit, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announces the completion of a Section 301 review of France’s Digital Services Tax (DST).
After determining the value of the French tax on U.S. internet services at $2.4 billion; Lighthizer announces a 100%  countervailing duty on a carefully selected $2.4 billion in French imports.
Obviously the agenda for the bilateral NATO meeting between U.S. President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron just changed.  LOL, you have to love Team USA.
Oh, but wait, wait… it gets better….
We have to remember, THIS $2.4 billion U.S. tariff against France would be on top of the $7.5 billion (per year) countervailing duty recently won from the Airbus subsidy case in the WTO…. and by law France cannot retaliate.
Oh my, President Trump strolls into the NATO bilat with Macron while holding a $10 billion legally justified countervailing tariff position.  How’d ya like ‘dem grapes?
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade “negotiations” :::nudge-nudge, wink-wink::: and highlights the ‘phase-1’ fulcrum is China committing to the $50b Ag purchase without condition.  Secretary Ross also notes the December 15th date just happens to be “good timing” if the U.S. team is “forced” to put more tariffs on China.  LOL.
Additionally, Mr. Ross notes the challenge of a strong dollar as it relates to allied nations who are stimulating their own economy by sending us even cheaper stuff, ie. Brazil.

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Whenever we discover a financial analyst who understands the new dimension in U.S. economics (rare) it is worth revisiting them from time-to-time. Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian was one of the first MSM pundits to: (a) accept the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street via de-globalization; and (b) begin to explain why that matters in the era of Trump.
El-Erian appeared this morning on Fox Business News to discuss President Trump’s re-imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Additionally El-Erian discusses trade tensions, market outlooks, consumer strength, recession fears, and the drag the rest of the world is placing in the U.S. economy.

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The U.S. economy is strong; all the fundamentals are solid. However, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are more exposed. There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile… they need “structural reform.”  The multinationals are holding cash, waiting to see how it plays out.
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Given the background activity last week between USTR Robert Lighthizer and Mexican Trade Minister Jesus Seade, and their agreement to set up a trilateral trade and labor dispute panel, President Trump now puts Speaker Pelosi in “check”….

(Tweet Link)

Having lost her labor defense shield (well played by Lighthizer/Seade), Pelosi is now either going to stand her party against the majority of Americans as President Trump pummels them over it… Or she puts the USMCA up for ratification (Trump wins) and it looks like she takes a knee….  Well played by President Trump.
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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones…. Keep in mind as you review these numbers – U.S. consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total U.S. GDP.  The sales numbers from Thanksgiving and Black Friday are exceptionally strong, showing confidence by consumers this holiday season.  This is not the ‘recession’ we were promised by pundits.
Continued strong wage growth amid all sectors of the U.S. workforce, particularly in non-supervisory positions, combined with low inflation and low energy costs, means consumers are spending out of ‘household cash flow’ which is considerably higher.

(Via CNBC) […] Spending online on Black Friday, as of 9 pm ET, hit a new record of $5.4 billion, up 22.3% from a year ago, according to data pulled from Adobe Analytics, which measures transactions from 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.
This comes as foot traffic appeared to be lighter at shopping malls across the country on Friday, a day that traditionally has been reserved for people to line up outside of big-box retailers and department stores to score doorbuster deals.
Total spending online on Black Friday is still forecast by Adobe to hit $7.6 billion, which would make the day the second-biggest online sales day ever, after Cyber Monday in 2018, where $7.9 billion was spent.

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The leaders of the twenty-nine NATO member nations are scheduled to meet next week in London, England.  Amid consistent pressure on the member states for increased defense spending to live up to their prior 2014 promises (Wales summit); and with NATO economies in a stalled geopolitical stasis due to their attachment to China (5G telecom), Russia (Nordstream II), and Iran; this summit holds increased possible ramifications.
This NATO summit could very well expose the duplicity and hypocrisy of the EU depending on how far U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to call them out.
There are going to be a lot of nervous snake handlers around the table(s), and with the U.K. elections in the near future there is a great deal at stake. The summit is Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here’s the White House background briefing:
[Transcript] – SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I just want to thank everyone for being here today, Friday after Thanksgiving.
Just up front, this call is going to be on background, attribution to a senior administration official, and there will be an embargo on the contents of this call until it’s completed.
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The New York Federal Reserve made a quiet admission two days ago that was missed by almost all financial media.  In the NY Fed economic blog they admitted everyone was wrong, President Trump’s 2017 tariffs against China did not lead to increased U.S. consumer prices [Read Here].  The Fed also said imports of the Chinese products affected by U.S. tariffs have fallen by an annualized $75 billion. That’s a huge chunk of business U.S. purchasers have shifted to Japan and other Southeast Asian countries.

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Within this dynamic lays the real reason why Beijing cannot wait for a 2020 election hoping that Biden or Bloomberg can stop their bleeding.  Before going into more depth, this brief explainer from Charles Payne will help establish a framework.  WATCH:
What Payne outlines is correct; however, the internal Chinese ‘tariff-offset’ dynamic is actually even a little deeper.  Overlaying the NY Fed research we can see that Beijing has attempted to offset the Trump tariffs in four majority ways:
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More signs the U.S. economy is very strong show up today as several key economic indicators defy prior economist predictions.   Staring with a significant upward revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the third quarter GDP growth from 1.9% to 2.1%:

The revision to GDP reflected upward revisions to inventory investment, business investment, and consumer spending.
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods (notably recreational goods and vehicles as well as food and beverages) and in services (led by housing and utilities as well as food services). (link)

Additionally, the commerce department released data showing U.S. core capital goods orders increased 1.2% in November, the largest gain since January; and more data on home sales shows a whopping 31.6% increase year-over-year. 
U.S. consumers and home buyers are benefiting from low inflation and significant blue collar wage gains that are an outcome of a growing economy and a very strong jobs market.  The most significant wage growth is in non-supervisory positions.   The economic strength is broad-based and the U.S. middle-class is confident.
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Well, well, well….  FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo announced this morning that her sources are saying a USMCA vote is possible next week.   This DC source reporting would align with our CTH spidey senses from the visible DC trade twitches.

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Something is shaping up in the political background around the USMCA.

Yesterday Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) sent a second letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urging USMCA ratification.  Team Trump and Team AMLO are working together against Team Pelosi & AFL-CIO Richard Trumka.
Essentially AMLO has been saying the labor provisions within the USMCA trade pact are already being put in place by Mexico, and Pelosi should quit trying to hide behind labor concerns to avoid ratification.

Tomorrow, on the eve of Thanksgiving at the request of the Trump administration, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Foreign Minister Jesus Seade and Canadian Deputy Minister Chrystia Freeland are holding a meeting to discuss the  AFL-CIO/Pelosi issues within the USMCA labor provisions.
FM Chrystia Freeland is irrelevant to the meeting; she’s a potted-plant rubber stamp for whatever scheme Pelosi is cooking. It is House Speaker Pelosi who is using her pressure over labor unions to hide behind AFL-CIO Richard Trumka and claim U.S. labor unions have issues with the USMCA labor provisions. It ain’t about labor; it is all political cover.
However, it is interesting that USTR Lighthizer, a man with the patience of Job, called Jesus Seade and Freeland to DC:

WASHINGTON – The three trade ministers from the United States, Canada and Mexico are set to meet in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the deal to replace NAFTA, seven people familiar with the plans told POLITICO.
The meeting involving U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Canadian Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Undersecretary for North America Jesús Seade comes as the Trump administration is nearing a compromise with House Democrats to make changes to the USMCA.

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