An interesting reaction from Beijing highlights an evaluation of risk from the lack of oil flowing from Iran.

According to most evaluated data, China was buying more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. That’s according to data from 2025 as analyzed by Kpler and published in January by Reuters.

Iranian oil always had limited buyers due to U.S. sanctions. However, China purchased on average 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year, according to Kpler. That represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 million bpd of oil it imported by sea.

With President Trump previously cutting of discounted oil from Venezuela, two things unfolded.  First, the Venezuela oil was no longer sold with non-petrodollar currencies; Venezuela oil is now being sold on the standard oil market.  Secondly, with the Venezuela oil disrupted China would become even more dependent on Iranian oil shipments if they wanted to retain the discounted rate.

How big is the financial difference?  According to Reuters, “Iranian Light crude has traded at around $8 to $10 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China since December.” … “That means Chinese refiners save about $8 to $10 a barrel if they buy Iranian Light rather than non-sanctioned oil.”

Additionally, as noted before Operation Epic Fury began, “Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, Kpler said.”

Buying discounted oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia resulted in billions of dollars saved by China.  The only production venue not currently disrupted would be purchases from Moscow.  This increases the dependency, but the purchase price may no longer carry any discounted value, at least not at the previous rate.

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Last week President Donald Trump officially announced the members of the Gaza Board of Peace; an organization headed by President Trump and tasked to oversee the second phase of his plan to end the Israeli conflict in Gaza, specifically the reconstruction and disarmament of Gaza and Hamas respectively. [SEE HERE]

The members of the “Board of Peace,” chaired by Trump himself, includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Emissary Steve Witkoff; Jared Kushner; former British Prime Minister Tony Blair; an American-Jewish billionaire named Mark Rowan; World Bank President Ajay Banga; and Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States, Robert Gabriel. President/Chairman Donald Trump has also appointed Aryeh Lightstone and Josh Gruenbaum as senior advisors to the Board of Peace.

At the same time, President Trump announced another executive body that would operate under the Peace Council to assist with the facilitation of a new Palestinian government, the “Gaza Executive Board.” This structure is intended to manage day to day events on the ground instead of a Hamas loyalist govt.  The appointees to the executive board have upset the Netanyahu government of Israel.

According to the White House announcement, the Gaza Executive Board will include: Witkoff; Kushner; Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan; senior Qatari official Ali al-Thawadi; Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad; Tony Blair; billionaire Mark Rowan; UAE Minister Reem Al Hashimi; former Bulgarian Foreign and Defense Minister Nickolay Mladenov, who also served as the UN envoy for the Middle East peace process; U.N Representative Sigrid Kagg, and Israeli-Cypriot businessman Yakir Gabbay, who specializes in real estate, technology and international investments.

Additionally, to establish security, preserve peace, and establish a durable terror-free environment, Major General Jasper Jeffers has been appointed Commander of the International Stabilization Force (ISF), where he will lead security operations, support comprehensive demilitarization, and enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid and reconstruction materials. [link]

According to Israeli media Netanyahu is not happy, and planning to protest the Turkish, Qatari and UAE appointments to Marco Rubio (not Trump):

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A massive fire at Wang Fuk Court in the Tai Po district of Hong Kong erupted on Wednesday afternoon, quickly spreading through multiple high rise residential buildings with bamboo scaffolding, trapping hundreds of residents, triggering mass panic, overwhelming firefighters, killing at least 55 people, injuring many others.

In the latest Reuters News report at least 55 people have been confirmed killed with hundreds still missing. The complex housed 4,600 apartments and was undergoing renovations. The 31 story buildings were covered in nylon mesh and bamboo scaffolding, with reports of foam insulation sprayed on the outside of the windows.

As the fire spread, the construction mesh and bamboo became ablaze and triggered fallout on the surrounding buildings, spreading the fire throughout the complex. The fire entered the buildings trapping many residents on the upper floors as the horrific inferno spread.

The videos and still images are terrible.  24 hours later and the heat inside the buildings is too intense for firefighters conducting search and rescue efforts.  An absolute nightmare for those who lived in the buildings.

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There has been a slight bit of ambiguity in President Trump’s schedule as he heads to Asia for the first time in his second term.  The President will attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia first.  The focus of President Trump and the ASEAN nations will be economics and regional stability.  Then President Trump will then head to Japan.

Washington and Tokyo reached a trade agreement earlier this year, which included the promise of $550 billion of investments in U.S. projects. Interestingly, Japan is in a moment of political transition, as Sanae Takaichi was elected to be the country’s first female prime minister. Takaichi is a protégé of Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister and dear friend of President Trump.  The meeting between Takaichi and Trump will likely hold a lot of very positive energy for both leaders; there is great respect.

President Trump will then head to South Korea, which is hosting this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. President Trump has said he’ll sit down with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping while he’s there for a much-anticipated meeting.  Additionally, President Trump will be discussing tariffs on South Korean autos and directly addressing stalled trade negotiations.  There is also a possibility for President Trump to visit North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and reconnect after several years of separation.  There is a lot of potential for this overall visit to Asia.

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In a series of announcements, the Trump administration has retriggered the suspension of the de minimis exemption which will begin tariffs on imported small shipment foreign goods globally and from Canada, Mexico, China and Hong Kong specifically.  {SEE HERE}

The suspension of the de minimis exemption means direct to consumer product shipments valued under $800 will again be subject to tariffs.

Additionally, President Trump has triggered a 50% tariff on imported copper except for those nations who have a free trade agreement in place for their copper component goods.  {SEE HERE}

WHITE HOUSE – STRENGTHENING AMERICA’S COPPER INDUSTRY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation to address the effects of copper imports on America’s national security, including by imposing tariffs on several categories of copper imports.

• The Proclamation imposes universal 50% tariffs on imports of semi-finished copper products (such as copper pipes, wires, rods, sheets, and tubes) and copper-intensive derivative products (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components), effective August 1.

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Think about it.  We’ve already heard about the massive stoppages of April factory work in China, causing serious concern for Beijing and Chinese worker protests.

American importers front loaded inventory in February and March with a 50% increase in orders.  Now, in addition to those factories going quiet, the de minimis rule kicks in.

(Via CNBC) – Chinese bargain retailer Temu changed its business model in the U.S. as the Trump administration’s new rules on low-value shipments took effect Friday.

In recent days, Temu has abruptly shifted its website and app to only display listings for products shipped from U.S.-based warehouses. Items shipped directly from China, which previously blanketed the site, are now labeled as out of stock.

Temu made a name for itself in the U.S. as a destination for ultra-discounted items shipped direct from China, such as $5 sneakers and $1.50 garlic presses. It’s been able to keep prices low because of the so-called de minimis rule, which has allowed items worth $800 or less to enter the country duty-free since 2016.

The loophole expired Friday at 12:01 a.m. EDT as a result of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in April. (more)

The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

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Kevin O’Leary appears on Fox Business to support President Trump’s tariff proposal against China that is targeted to confront the dragon behind the Beijing panda mask.  WATCH:

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This next story is a natural outcome in the flow of goods. Remember, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the first quarter is a hindsight review. Meaning the information released today was based on activity in January, February and March 2025.

U.S. companies surged the purchasing of import goods, mostly from China, by more than 50% in the first quarter. They were/are building inventory. So, what happens in China starting in April?

Hong Kong, CNN – China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April, as steep US tariffs took a heavy toll on the manufacturing sector, adding urgency to Beijing’s efforts to roll out fresh economic stimulus.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April, the weakest reading since December 2023, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday. A reading below 50 signals a contraction.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement that the contraction in factory activity was due to “sharp changes in the external environment and other factors.” (read more)

The U.S. has front-loaded the inventory. So, orders to China drop now. It’s a natural outcome.

We have purchased goods in advance. So, orders to China drop. As a result, the cargo shipments from China to the USA drop in April, May and June.

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Three months ago, I was in Vietnam reviewing just how expansive the positioning of Chinese investment was in the concurrent communist nation.  The short version is Beijing’s footprint in Vietnam was already huge.

As an outcome of the 2018 tariffs against China, which coincided with a President Trump visit to southeast Asia, multiple companies shifted manufacturing operations from China to Vietnam.

Beijing saw the move and slowly increased their own strategic footprint.

In the subsequent years as COVID-19 took attention from all other matters, and with Trump removed from the equation in 2020, China increased the scale of their investment and the outcomes in 2025 are very visible.

China even built this massive Disney type village in Phu Quõc (it’s nearly empty).

The people who live in Vietnam do not have money, they are a very poor nation.  The baseline poverty level, in combination with their communist regime politics, essentially eliminates their consumer power to purchase western goods and makes trade agreements between the U.S and Vietnam somewhat moot.  However, as a proxy manufacturing nation Vietnam is a valuable resource for China.

Essentially what can be seen in Vietnam is how Beijing spends money there for influence.  The U.S footprint is negligible in comparison to the visible influence of China.

Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping is in Vietnam right now making trade deals with the allied communist government.  At this point with so much Beijing influence money already in place, China can request very strategic terms.

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In addition to Howard Lutnick, Peter Navarro and Kevin Hassett explaining the nuances of Section 232 tariff exemptions, White House Senior Policy Advisor, Stephen Miller, appears on Fox News to deliver the same message.

Steel, Aluminum, Automobiles, Pharmaceuticals and components for semiconductor manufacturing all fall under the Section 232 “National Security” tariff umbrella. Meaning, the products within each of those sectors of manufacturing are handled ¹differently from all other tariffs as executed.  WATCH:

[¹NOTE: This approach could present a problem in future lawsuits, because the administration is now beginning to define what is classified as a ‘national security’ product. Lawfare operatives will likely say in court that all other tariff sectors (not 232) are controlled by congress, not the President; at least that will be their predictable argument. The administration will counter by arguing all other sector tariffs are directed in response to the Fentanyl crisis, which is again described as a “national security” threat.]

President Trump released the following statement on Truth Social:

NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non-Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday.

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