The geopolitical ramifications of the oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) impact from the ongoing conflict with Iran is changing many of the world’s energy supply chains. Given the nature of the issues there are a myriad of complex dynamics to discuss. However, one key component is the U.S. policy shift to deal with the supply.

With that in mind, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears with Larry Kudlow to discuss the United States’ new $20 billion maritime reinsurance plan as well as the ongoing conflict in Iran. CTH will be expanding the conversation specifically as it relates to Russian oil/gas sales. This is a good precursor interview. WATCH:

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Today at 4:00pm ET, President Trump will participate in a ‘save college sports’ roundtable event at the White House.  Various leaders and athletes from college sports will assemble to discuss the topic.  The media will be present and likely to ask questions about current events. Livestream links below.

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The origin of the latest development goes back several weeks.

Ukraine (Zelenskyy) was angry at Hungary (Orban) for blocking the €90 billion EU loan (a loan with no payback clause) which was backed by confiscated Russian sovereign wealth funds.  A splendidly European financial scheme.

To get back at Viktor Orban, Volodymyr Zelenskyy destroyed an oil/gas pipeline hub in Ukraine that transferred Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia (Robert Fico).

Hungary and Slovakia were furious, and Zelenskyy said repairs were too complicated to be easily fixed.  Viktor Orban and Robert Fico then doubled down on blocking Ukraine funds and Ukraine’s assentation to the EU.

When Zelenskyy was questioned about Hungarian or EU inspectors visiting the site to evaluate the repairs, Zelenskyy said they would not be allowed access.

Zelenskyy further noted when he was told Patriot Missiles were in short supply, he did not get to visit the inventory; implying his lies were similar to lies told by the United States.

Caught in a lie, Zelenskyy followed up by saying he didn’t care, it was Russian oil so get lost.

Two days ago, Hungary then intercepted two Ukraine vans carrying $40 million in cash dollars, €35 million in cash Euros, and 9 kg of gold – presumably a money laundering transfer intended to fund Zelenskyy and his intelligence chiefs.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stating that “since January, $900 million and €420 million in cash, as well as 146 kilograms of gold, have been transported across Hungary.”

The shipment apprehended by Hungary included 40 million U.S. dollars as well as 35 million euros and 9 kilograms (19.8 pounds) of gold — worth around $1.5 million at current prices — according to a separate statement by Oschadbank.

Hungary’s National Tax and Customs Administration confirmed Friday that it had detained the Ukrainian citizens and seized the two armored cash-transport vehicles. It added it was conducting criminal proceedings on suspicion of money laundering. {LINK}

Upon hearing of the intercept yesterday, a highly angered Volodymyr Zelenskyy then threatened to send Ukraine “special military operators” to the home of Viktor Orban to extract revenge.

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Do you remember this moment during the 2015 republican presidential debates when all of the candidates were on stage and leading control outlet Fox News (Bret Baier) purposefully asked the candidates:

…”is there anyone on stage, unwilling tonight, to pledge your support to the eventual nominee of the republican party, and pledge to not run an independent campaign against that person.  Again, we are looking for you to raise your hand now if you won’t make that pledge tonight.”

[The moment in video is here] The need for control is a reaction to fear.  The question was intentionally constructed to create both an optic and a narrative Fox News, Rupert Murdoch and the republican party were purposefully shaping.  Collectively the professional republicans were desperately afraid Donald Trump would run as an independent candidate.

I bring us back to that moment because it is the key to understand where we are even today.  This was the core of the matter. This is the “trillions at stake” aspect.  This is the economics of the thing as it first manifest.

Why did Donald J Trump stand against them all?

For many years before that moment, a small group of us had been outlining why it was urgent for MAGAnomics to take charge of the U.S. economy; because underneath both wings of the UniParty in Washington DC was a system that few understood.

♦ Prior to 2016, the United States Chamber of Commerce (U.S CoC), a private K-Street lobbying consortium, were the negotiators for every single trade deal done from the office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

The U.S. government (USTR, POTUS and Congress) was the trade stakeholder who signed the agreements; however, the actual nuts and bolts of what the trade deal included, the terms and conditions, were negotiated by the US CoC.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce represented the corporate interests of their Wall Street clients. After all, the corporations paid the CoC and the business model of the CoC is dependent on the corporations.

This is the larger background for how decades of trade agreements ended up with offshoring, the Rust Belt, diminished domestic manufacturing, and increased corporate profits. This is the core mechanics of how a U.S. manufacturing economy was shifted to a “service driven economy.”

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce was writing the trade deals. The CoC would then fund the politicians who would approve the trade deals. The CoC would also finance the presidential candidates.

When President Trump ran for office in 2016, his trade, manufacturing and economic policies were against the interests of the entire business network that controlled trade. The U.S. CoC poured money into Hillary Clinton’s campaign and their main GOP partner in the enterprise, Mitch McConnell.

When Trump won the election, he completely shut out the CoC from any involvement in U.S. trade negotiations. Trump literally put himself, Wilbur Ross, and Robert Lighthizer in control.

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CNN is bragging about the teams they have on the ground in Iran and around the war zone to provide coverage for Operation Epic Fury. [SOURCE]  Which again, brings up an interesting contrast that seemingly flew under the radar from past events.

[Citation – link]

As we noted in the beginning of the Russian war in Ukraine, where was the media for that one?  Where was this CNN coverage for the war in Ukraine?  The Ukraine war was the only war in modern history with ZERO mainstream media reports complete with helmets, flak jackets and play-by-play reporting of every moment within the conflict.  Why?

The answer is not necessarily complicated.  The Ukraine war was a war of narratives.  Yes, there was actual fighting, but the physical conflict itself was not in alignment with the narrative the media intended to create from it.  The reality within Ukraine did not fit in the pert chart and the visuals would not ever have supported the claims.

Ukraine was/is the COVID-19 of wars.  A western intelligence operation using the geography of Ukraine to push an agenda in alignment with western interests. It would not and does not serve the interests of truth and transparency for media to report from inside a battlespace that might contradict their claims.  Hence, we labeled it “World War Reddit,” and it remains that way through today.

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The U.S. and Israel have been targeting deep underground missile sites within Iran, with strong success.  Iranian counterstrikes, missile & drone launches are down 80 to 90 percent according to Pentagon officials.

Additionally, the Israeli military has reported they dismantled an underground bunker system in Tehran used by regime leadership.  Originally the bunker was used by slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei underneath the leadership compound in central Tehran.  The bunker was targeted by 50 Israeli fighter jets and subsequently destroyed.

President Trump announced via Truth Social that he will not seek any terms with Iran other than unconditional surrender.

[SOURCE]

Meanwhile, in a somewhat predictable move, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced the U.S. will lift some sanctions on Russian oil exports in order to mitigate shortfalls.  India will be permitted to purchase additional Russian oil for use in their refineries.  The gasoline end products will then be sold into the market.

BESSENT: “President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded.

To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.

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Making the announcement on his Truth Social Account, President Trump announces that Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will be replaced with Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin.

[Truth Social] – I am pleased to announce that the Highly Respected United States Senator from the Great State of Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), effective March 31, 2026. The current Secretary, Kristi Noem, who has served us well, and has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!), will be moving to be Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, our new Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere we are announcing on Saturday in Doral, Florida. I thank Kristi for her service at “Homeland.”

Serving 10 years in the United States House of Representatives, and 3 in the Senate, Markwayne has done a tremendous job representing the wonderful People of Oklahoma, where I won all 77 out of 77 Counties — in 2016, 2020, and 2024! A MAGA Warrior, and former undefeated professional MMA fighter, Markwayne truly gets along well with people, and knows the Wisdom and Courage required to Advance our America First Agenda.

As the only Native American in the Senate, Markwayne is a fantastic advocate for our incredible Tribal Communities. Markwayne will work tirelessly to Keep our Border Secure, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, End the Scourge of Illegal Drugs and, MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN. Markwayne will make a spectacular Secretary of Homeland Security. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

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This is a pretty solid position by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton who is offering to drop out of the Texas senate race if John Thune and John Cornyn will stop blocking President Trump, eliminate the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act.

Paxton gets a pass at calling Cornyn a “coward,” as the slight is negligible considering the selflessness within the offer. Paxton is a patriot and this is a solid alternative that boosts President Trump.

[SOURCE]

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An interesting reaction from Beijing highlights an evaluation of risk from the lack of oil flowing from Iran.

According to most evaluated data, China was buying more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. That’s according to data from 2025 as analyzed by Kpler and published in January by Reuters.

Iranian oil always had limited buyers due to U.S. sanctions. However, China purchased on average 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year, according to Kpler. That represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 million bpd of oil it imported by sea.

With President Trump previously cutting of discounted oil from Venezuela, two things unfolded.  First, the Venezuela oil was no longer sold with non-petrodollar currencies; Venezuela oil is now being sold on the standard oil market.  Secondly, with the Venezuela oil disrupted China would become even more dependent on Iranian oil shipments if they wanted to retain the discounted rate.

How big is the financial difference?  According to Reuters, “Iranian Light crude has traded at around $8 to $10 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China since December.” … “That means Chinese refiners save about $8 to $10 a barrel if they buy Iranian Light rather than non-sanctioned oil.”

Additionally, as noted before Operation Epic Fury began, “Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, Kpler said.”

Buying discounted oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia resulted in billions of dollars saved by China.  The only production venue not currently disrupted would be purchases from Moscow.  This increases the dependency, but the purchase price may no longer carry any discounted value, at least not at the previous rate.

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Sometimes you have to sip coffee slowly, while taking in the landscape.

About a month ago President Donald J Trump bombed Caracas, engaged the U.S. military with a direct firefight against Venezuela military & security forces, then snatched regime dictator Nicholas Maduro out of the country to face criminal charges in the United States.

Yesterday, Maduro’s replacement, President Delcy Rodriquez, stood on the steps to the Venezuela presidential office and publicly thanked Interior Secretary Doug Bergum for the kindness and support of President Donald Trump.

That reality represents a level of hemispheric ‘ultimate boss’ that boggles the mind.  But wait, it gets better. There’s video (prompted):

Before going further to current events, let us remind ourselves of a few details.

Sandwiched between the Venezuela Maduro operation and the recent Operation Epic Fury in Iran, approximately three weeks ago, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth convened a gathering in Washington of all the defense chiefs and senior military officials from 34 Western Hemisphere countries.

As most of you will remember, securing the national security of the entire Western Hemisphere, was outlined in the national defense strategy document [SEE HERE] released by President Trump. In addition to setting the priorities for the United States focus, the report details the Trump administration perspective on the world as broken down into specific regions.  The report is a brutally honest review of the current state of geopolitical benefits, risks and threats as they pertain to vital U.S. interests. The report outlines a critically renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere.

Now, back to Secretary Bergum’s visit.

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