The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the data for the second quarter of 2019.  The Q2 GDP growth rate of 2.1 percent beat all economic expectations, and highlights strong consumer spending throughout the U.S. economy.

The two primary drags on the Q2 release are also the most volatile: Export/Import contributions (-.65%), and Inventory contributions (-.86%) [table 2]. However, consumer spending was much stronger than anticipated (+4.3%) showing the internal strength of the U.S. labor market and the impact of wage growth which still exceeds 3.6 percent.
The inflation index is still low at 1.5 percent year-over-year, and highlights a point all economic pundits overlook.  With countries attempting to stop the impact of tariffs on their exports they are devaluing their currency (EU and China) and subsidizing their export industries (China).  This has the cumulative effect of lowering their price. As a consequence, and with a strong dollar, the U.S. is importing deflation.
The Fed can do nothing of substance to impact low price inflation because the causes are external to the U.S. economy.  CTH predicted this in 2016, and we stand by that assertion today because we now have almost three years of empirical data to prove it.
Wall Street wants bad news because Wall Street wants a lower fed rate.  As a direct consequence Wall Street’s multinational corporate media bias over the GDP data release is hilarious. The headline from NBC is typical: “Economic Growth Slows Less Than Expected in Second Quarter”….    Sometimes you just have to laugh.
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The second quarter Gross Domestic Product growth result will be released tomorrow.  The Q2 GDP growth rate is historically the worst quarter of the year.  A growth rate higher than 1.5 percent will be a strong indicator the U.S. economy remains on track for a cumulative year of around three percent.

In the latest economic releases the orders for durable goods “unexpectedly” jumped in June [2 percent], again indicating the overall strength of the U.S. economy and strong consumer purchasing.  Additionally the trade in goods deficit “unexpectedly” declined 1.2 percent in June as more manufacturers “surprisingly” shift production back to the U.S, and domestic consumers are “unexpectedly” loyal to USA.
Every economic indicator is positive, and each series of released data shows the U.S. economy is increasingly strong.  Despite the empirical data, media reporting on economic forecasts continue to convey a negative slant disconnected from what is happening.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged in June, suggesting some improvement in business investment, but economic growth is still expected to have slowed sharply in the second quarter amid weaker exports and a smaller inventory build.

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President Trump has tweeted support for an American artist A$AP Rocky after Swedish authorities file formal charges which may result in a two-year prison term.
It seems remarkable that a street fight, which did appear to be validly self defense, could result in such a serious situation for this young American musician. President Trump has attempted to help the artist who remains in detention, and expresses disappointment in the status.

ABC News – Rapper A$AP Rocky was charged with assault in Sweden on Thursday over a brawl in the streets of Stockholm on June 30, according to prosecutors.
“I have today commenced criminal proceedings against the three individuals suspected of assault causing actual bodily harm, having come to the conclusion that the events in question constitute a crime and despite claims of self-defence and provocation,” said public prosecutor Daniel Suneson, of the City Public Prosecution Office in Stockholm.

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The U.S. worker initiative is one of the least discussed success stories in the landscape of MAGAnomics.  At the heart of the program is a new-era retraining program through a partnership between private companies and the education sector.  There are programs ongoing throughout the nation and it really is a remarkable success.
UPDATE: Video Added

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[White House] Today, President Trump, Vice President Pence, Advisor to the President Ivanka Trump and members of the Cabinet will host an event at the White House with workers and CEOs to celebrate the one year anniversary since the launch of the Pledge to America’s Workers.
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Beautiful weather today in Virginia as President Trump and Vice President Pence participate in a military honors welcoming ceremony at the Pentagon to celebrate America’s new Secretary of Defense, Mark T. Esper.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much to our great Vice President, and thank you to all of the extraordinary patriots here at the United States Department of Defense, the world’s largest building. I’ve heard for many years, the world’s largest building. And it’s under great leadership.
Your devotion, strength, and courage keep America safe, strong, and free. It’s because of you that the United States military is the most powerful fighting force on the face of the Earth.
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Today at 1:00pm EST former Special Counsel Robert Mueller will continue his testimony before congress. After a morning of complete embarrassment, the House democrats are now desperate to save their plan.  It’s a hot mess, bigly.
All eyes are on DC as Democrats and Republicans are expected to grill Mueller on connections between Trump, Russia and the DOJ officials who initiated the probe.
The event is being broadcast live via satellite around the world and there are hundreds of options to watch on network, cable TV and Livestream broadcast:
Fox Business Livestream – Fox News Livestream – CSPAN Livestream Link – Global News Livestream Link – PBS Livestream Link – CNBC Livestream Link – CBSN Livestream

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Today at 8:30am EST former Special Counsel Robert Mueller will begin his testimony before congress.  For the first time the former investigator will answer questions about his findings from the 22-month-long investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.  All eyes are on DC as Democrats and Republicans are expected to grill Mueller on connections between Trump, Russia and the DOJ officials who initiated the probe.
The event is being broadcast live via satellite around the world and there are hundreds of options to watch on network, cable TV and Livestream broadcast:
Fox Business Livestream – Fox News Livestream – RSBN Livestream Link – Global News Livestream Link – CBC Livestream Link – CNBC Livestream Link – CBSN Livestream

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This is funny.  No, really, it is actually funny.  Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its outlook of the global economy.  If you read the IMF prior “dire forecast” from July 17th –yes, only a week ago– you’ll discover the humor aspect.
The IMF is now upgrading their forecast of U.S. economic growth; and admitting -in essence- that President Trump’s America-First agenda is relocating global wealth back to the primary host nation known as the U.S.A.   The increase in their forecast isn’t a small increase, it is essentially adding .3 percent (from 2.3% to 2.6%) or $60 billion more.

However, you’d have to go through two-thirds of the Reuters press coverage of the IMF release; and plow through a littany of doom and gloom; before you found this obscure reference: “The IMF raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.6% in 2019, but left its 2020 forecast for 1.9% growth unchanged.”   Apparently the economic team at Reuters has a sad… harrumph!
Even the Washington Post, despite their earnest efforts, couldn’t actually put a negative spin on the new IMF projection:
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This evening President Trump delivered remarks during the swearing-in ceremony for newly appointed Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper.  [Video and Transcript]  The Senate voted 90-to-8 easily confirming Secretary Esper.

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everybody. We have a very important moment in our country’s history, actually. And we had a lot of our great Republican senators in the White House, and I invited them over and many of them wanted to be here. And as you probably heard, the vote just took place, and it was 90 to 8. That’s a vote that we’re not accustomed to, Mark, I have to say that. So congratulations, that’s great.
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Generation Z is absolutely the generation to absorb the truthfulness, purpose and benefit of President Donald John Trump.  Gen-Z are also some of his strongest supporters.
Earlier today President Donald Trump delivered rally-style remarks at the Turning Point USA’s Teen Student Action Summit.  President Trump discussed a number of topics including “The Squad,” Prime Minister-elect Boris Johnson’s victory in the UK and the corrupt Robert Mueller testifying before Congress. [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.
AUDIENCE: USA! USA! USA!
THE PRESIDENT: So, let’s have a good time, right? (Applause.) Let’s have a good time.
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