As CTH has noted since last October the rapid increases in fertilizer costs could potentially create a major issue for global food supplies later this summer.  As the farming costs continue escalating, including fertilizer and diesel fuel prices, this will eventually lead to major price increases on the harvests.   Field to fork inflation is looking increasingly severe later this year; what we have called the third wave of inflation.

Beyond prices, a primary impact in the U.S. market, concerns are now escalating about grain shortages {SEE HERE} and lower European crop yields which will lead to less food products on a global basis.   According to information shared by ZeroHedge, “We think it will take at least 2-3 years to replenish global grains stocks,” Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings Inc.’s president and chief executive officer Tony Will said in a statement in Wednesday’s earnings report.”

Axios is reporting on the continued escalation of fertilizer prices; however, they conveniently and purposefully avoid noting the origin of the problem in North America is directly the result of Joe Biden’s immediate energy policies that drove up the costs of natural gas (a critical component):

AXIOS – “Skyrocketing fertilizer costs — like those made from nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) — are driving up food prices and, worse, threatening food security around the globe.

State of play: Prices for NPK were up 125% in January from a year before, and rose another 17% from the beginning of the year to March, according to data compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

(more…)

As expected, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates .50%.  However, inflation is expected to remain high as prior spending debt bubble remains in place.

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, the biggest jump in 22 years, and the U.S. central bank’s chief made an appeal to Americans struggling with high inflation to be patient while officials take the hard measures to bring it under control. (read more)

Within hours of the announcement, major U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo Bank and Citibank raised their prime rate to 4%, effective Thursday.

The timing of the rate increase is what was expected.  Last year’s inflation spikes started appearing in June of 2021.  By delaying the 2022 FED response until right now, the political operatives in control of U.S. monetary policy create a scenario where the Fed impact will appear to surface in June of 2022. Exactly one year from the date of the first wave of inflation from the prior COVID spend.

Year-over-year inflation will statistically begin to give the appearance of moderation, once the June (’21) to June (’22) comparison cycle arrives.  The Fed and White House will use the intentionally timed statistical outcome to claim inflation is diminishing.  It’s a political trick we expected.

(more…)

If you are not familiar with Cass Sunstein’s wife, Samantha Power, I would suggest spending some time on any search feature of the internet.  Power is the archetype ideological traveler within the academic peer group of the Obama team.  Former U.N. Ambassador Power is the person who takes the ideological theory [example Responsibility to Protect (R2P)], and then constructs the mechanisms and network to turn theory into applicable policy.

Samantha put down the filtered Brazilian rainwater coffee this morning and gave a few interviews, that are rather telling of what is going on in the background of the Biden administration.  Discussing Ukraine {Direct Rumble Link} Power let it slip that the absence of industrial fertilizer is a good thing because in the spirit of “never letting a crisis go to waste,” the transition of food growing to more “sustainable farming” through organic fertilizer is a key transition for the bigger picture issue of Climate Change.  WATCH:

Samantha is the prototype backpack, academic, Birkenstock traveler who all model U.N. types view as the person to emulate.  She’s a sustainable algae  cake eater, who bridges the space between the Kennedy Center ballroom crowd and the cross-legged, sitting on the grass, NYU commons activists.

A very dangerous mind, with no practical skills beyond very dangerous ideological theory.

(more…)

This is an update to an ongoing issue we started seriously discussing last October when it became clear that if the trajectory was followed, “the absence of food will change things.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is continuing to send warnings with increased urgency about the very real possibility of widespread food shortages in regions where food instability is a historic issue. [SEE HERE]

“The war in Ukraine has triggered a sharp increase in energy and food prices that could undermine food security in the region, raise poverty rates, worsen income inequality, and possibly lead to social unrest,” the Fund said in its annual Regional Outlook for Africa.”

This is a recent warning around a topic that has increasingly gained international attention.  Indeed, experts in multiple related agricultural fields have openly started to discuss and predict a looming crisis as the majority of the global food supply is contingent on only one or two growing cycles per year for harvest.  Those harvests are facing multiple headwinds that could likely result in lower yields.

Against this backdrop we can be certain that all nation’s government interests are taking this issue seriously.  Now, we are starting to see a race for supply control by various governments.

(more…)

Goya Foods CEO Bob Unanu appeared on Fox Business earlier today in order to give a bigger picture review of the current status of food production. Unanu does a good job outlining how the interconnected systems from field to fork impact consumers.  The Goya CEO appropriately outlines what is happening and what the consequences are from Biden energy policy.  It’s a good interview.

Unanu does not push food alarmism and accurately states the U.S. food production system will ensure that food is available for U.S. consumers to purchase, albeit at higher prices.  The people most at risk from food insecurity are developing countries who rely on exports of food products generated by efficient, productive and exceptional farming operations in North America that feed the world.

For U.S. consumers it is the massive increases in energy and transportation costs that are driving up food prices, putting the issue of food insecurity into the correct context of food affordability.   WATCH:

.

Consumers can offset the price impacts by shopping closer to the field, the origin of the food purchases needed.  Shopping for fresh food products at farmers markets avoids feeling the impact of shipping and transportation costs, and it helps the local economy.  If you are near areas with farm production in the United States consider the financial value of skipping the convenience of the supermarket in favor of shopping closer to the field.

In the field to fork food supply and distribution system, the closer you can get to the field for purchases the less costs you will encounter.  Obviously, for many people this may not be possible.  However, for others it might be time to evaluate the cost of convenience.

(more…)

Another item in the long list of ‘thanks Joe Biden‘ stuff.  Shortages in natural gas in windmill chasing Europe have driven up the prices significantly.  The conflict between NATO and their targeted villain in Russia is only making matters worse.

As the EU prices jump to $33/$34 per million British thermal units (BTU’s), the U.S. natural gas selling at $6 per million BTU’s is an absolute bargain.

Liquify that stuff and send it across the pond says any smart energy capitalist.

However, that comes with a problem for us.  Our supplies of natural gas are depleting quickly, our exports are now almost three times more than our production.

LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) – U.S. gas prices have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade as strong demand from overseas has emptied storage and left inventories well below average for the time of year despite a mild winter.

Front-month futures for gas delivered at Henry Hub in Louisiana have risen to $6.40 per million British thermal units, the highest in real terms since 2010. Wholesale prices in the United States are still far below those prevailing in Northeast Asia ($33 per million British thermal units) and Northwest Europe ($34).

[…] U.S. LNG exports rose 13% in the three months from November to January compared with the same period a year earlier, while gas production was up by less than 5%.

(more…)

Given the scale of the stakes for western government; and given the professed intentions of govt-aligned big tech to control the story; it is almost impossible to have an honest and open dialogue on the internet about what is happening in Ukraine.  That said, for those who have been using independent resources to form their own opinion of the events in/around Ukraine, this interview highlights some important aspects.

First, notice how Prime Minister Shmyhal is not the least bit bashful about saying cash is important because American taxpayers, the working American people, have a duty to fund the pensions and retirement accounts of the Ukrainian people, including govt politicians. [03:37] Indeed, much of the financial assistance Joe Biden has been sending to Ukraine (beyond the weapons to support the proxy war) is going toward paying the wages and salaries of corrupt Ukranian leadership.

Let that first point settle in deeply, as we consider how working Americans are being financially destroyed by U.S. monetary/fiscal policy, yet the same U.S. officials wiping out your bank account are funding the bank accounts of people in Ukraine.  Interview WATCH:

Second point.  Notice [06:02] how Prime Minister Shmyhal hedges, pauses and thinks about the response to the question of ‘what is victory’, a stalemate or Russian exit?  In the U.S. proxy war against Russia, Shmyhal is not the person who can answer that question, only the White House can.

(more…)

Robert Lighthizer was the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) under the Trump administration.  Lighthizer was exceptionally strong in developing and structuring the America First trade policy that included the effective use of tariffs to get fair trade outcomes.

In this video Ambassador Lighthizer discusses the current trade policy of the Biden administration with former National Economic Council Chair Larry Kudlow.  The discussion centers around U.S-China trade policy, the phase-1 trade deal that was interrupted by the pandemic, and the future of the existing trade tariffs against Beijing that Biden is reportedly going to remove.  WATCH:

As noted by Lighthizer, if Biden drops the Chinese tariffs, it will only make the trade imbalance worse and push the U.S. deeper into the cycle of lost jobs and economic contraction.  He’s correct.

(more…)

It’s not exactly a confidence builder when the Director of the International Monetary Fund answers the question about forward priorities by saying, “Perhaps we need to pay attention to the law of unintended consequences.”  You had one job Kristalina, one job.

During an International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring debate and discussion segment, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, outlined her perspective against the backdrop of massive inflation caused by the global financial institutions telling government to spend money and they will print it, during COVID.  [The video is prompted to 01:04:50] WATCH:

The discussion included EU Central Bank President Lagarde, US Fed Chair Powell, Indonesian Finance Minister Mulvani – when IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva admitted they channeled their COVID fear and emotions by unsustainably printing money without pausing to think through the consequences.

Now, the world is facing massive inflation, economic contraction, looming hunger, widespread famine and a pending global financial collapse.

Their response? “Whoops.”

Not to worry, they’ll have a little wine and chocolate and figure things out.  Swear.

(more…)

Colonel Douglas Macgregor appeared on Tucker Carlson to give a brutally honest assessment of the conflict in Ukraine. Regarding the transfer of heavy weapons and artillery, Macgregor notes something many have discussed.

The logistics of sending in those weapons from western Ukraine (Poland border) to the eastern Ukraine battle encompasses a thousand-mile trek. Russia can easily hit those convoys en route, negating the supply line. Additionally, the U.S. has sent $4.7 billion in military equipment and financial aid so far (see graphic below), and we have no idea who is in control of those weapons.  WATCH:

To give scale for the proxy war the U.S. government is waging in Ukraine, check out the extreme ratio of who in NATO is sending support, and how much.

(more…)