Pushed far enough, decisions are reached.

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] “The U.S. Court of International Trade incredibly ruled against the United States of America on desperately needed Tariffs but, fortunately, the full 11 Judge Panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit Court has just stayed the order by the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade. Where do these initial three Judges come from? How is it possible for them to have potentially done such damage to the United States of America? Is it purely a hatred of “TRUMP?” What other reason could it be?

I was new to Washington, and it was suggested that I use The Federalist Society as a recommending source on Judges. I did so, openly and freely, but then realized that they were under the thumb of a real “sleazebag” named Leonard Leo, a bad person who, in his own way, probably hates America, and obviously has his own separate ambitions. He openly brags how he controls Judges, and even Justices of the United States Supreme Court — I hope that is not so, and don’t believe it is! In any event, Leo left The Federalist Society to do his own “thing.” I am so disappointed in The Federalist Society because of the bad advice they gave me on numerous Judicial Nominations. This is something that cannot be forgotten!

With all of that being said, I am very proud of many of our picks, but very disappointed in others. They always must do what’s right for the Country! In this case, it is only because of my successful use of Tariffs that many Trillions of Dollars have already begun pouring into the U.S.A. from other Countries, money that, without these Tariffs, we would not be able to get. It is the difference between having a rich, prosperous, and successful United States of America, and quite the opposite.

The ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade is so wrong, and so political! Hopefully, the Supreme Court will reverse this horrible, Country threatening decision, QUICKLY and DECISIVELY. Backroom “hustlers” must not be allowed to destroy our Nation!

The horrific decision stated that I would have to get the approval of Congress for these Tariffs. In other words, hundreds of politicians would sit around D.C. for weeks, and even months, trying to come to a conclusion as to what to charge other Countries that are treating us unfairly. If allowed to stand, this would completely destroy Presidential Power — The Presidency would never be the same!

This decision is being hailed all over the World by every Country, other than the United States of America. Radical Left Judges, together with some very bad people, are destroying America. Under this decision, Trillions of Dollars would be lost by our Country, money that will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. It would be the harshest financial ruling ever leveled on us as a Sovereign Nation. The President of the United States must be allowed to protect America against those that are doing it Economic and Financial harm.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (source)

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Shortly before the federal appeals court decision to stay the lower court intervention, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the frustrating trade court decision and the pending legislation on budgets and taxes.

Director Hassett is always a solid analytical mind to follow because his job is to look into the future and see if current alignment of economic policy retains the objective of economic growth, and he does it well.  Within the interview a key point made by Hassett on the trade/tariff conflict with the court is that USTR Jamieson Greer has multiple legal pathways to support the intent of the tariffs as applied.

This is a point CTH will continue to make; both the USTR and the Dept of Commerce Secretary have alternate legal trade tools that support the tariffs.  The bottom line is that whether IEEPA is used or Sec.301/302 are used the tariff outcome remains the same, the only difference is the amount of time for the countervailing duty to trigger; put another way, ‘optimal solutions.’  WATCH:

Despite the noise and media drumbeat, Kevin Hassett continues to carry the maganomic agenda forward with a smile.  He is able to do this because all of the economic policy is grounded in America-first realism.  It can be achieved, and it will be achieved, entirely because it is achievable. Remember that!

When you reach frustration, ask yourself, “is there bread in the kitchen?”  If yes, then focus on solving the immediate non-critical problem; do not allow the dark imaginings to disrupt your focus. It’s the guys like Kevin Hassett who are keeping the bread in the kitchen.

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We all knew the system would strike back. There are trillions at stake.

UPDATES AT BOTTOM: A federal trade court based out of New York has just ruled in a three-judge decision that President Trump does not have the authority within the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to initiate emergency trade tariffs.  [The Ruling is HERE]

WASHINGTON DC – A federal trade court ruled President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs on virtually every nation, voiding the levies that have sparked a global trade war and threatened to upend the world economy.

The decision on Wednesday from the Court of International Trade blocked one of the Trump administration’s most audacious assertions of executive power, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, and sets the stage for a possible appeal by the White House.

“The court does not read IEEPA to confer such unbounded authority and sets aside the challenged tariffs imposed thereunder,” a three-judge panel wrote. (link)

“The Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders exceed any authority granted to the President by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs,” the court wrote.  The court also ordered that the tariffs that the Trump administration has collected so far be “vacated.”

UPDATE #1: I’m tearing through this ruling right now and I can find several structural flaws in the 3-judge panel decision.

[From Page 6, pdf] “…[…] in 1962, Congress delegated to the President the power to take action to adjust imports when the Secretary of Commerce finds that an “article is being imported into the United States in such quantities or under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security.” Trade Expansion Act of 1962, Pub. L. No. 87-794, § 232(b), 76 Stat. 872, 877 (codified as amended at 19 U.S.C. § 1862(c)(1)(A)). This delegation is conditioned upon an investigation and findings by the Secretary of Commerce, and agreement by the President. See id. Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended, requires that the U.S. Trade Representative (“USTR”) take action, which may include imposing tariffs, where “the rights of the United States under any trade agreement are being denied” or “an act, policy, or practice of a foreign country” is “unjustifiable and burdens or restricts United States commerce.” 19 U.S.C. § 2411(a)(1)(A)–(B). The USTR may impose duties also where the USTR determines that “an act, policy, or practice of a foreign country is unreasonable or discriminatory and burdens or restricts United States commerce.” Id. § 2411(b)(1). This power is conditioned on extensive procedural requirements including an investigation that culminates in an affirmative finding that another country imposed unfair trade barriers under § 2411(a)(1)(A) or (B) or § 2411(b), and a public notice and comment period. See id. § 2414(b).”… [source]

I’ve just gotten started, but that citation is just one reason why the ruling can be overturned on appeal.

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King Charles is arriving in Canada today in advance of an opening speech he will deliver to the Canadian Parliament.   Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney invited King Charles to attend, and while the media portray the visit as mostly symbolic there is no doubt the substantive issue for Canada is the economic dependency on the USA and how the U.K can bolster the position of Canada against that threat.

Everything is always about the money of the thing, this dynamic between the U.K and Canada is no different.  What we would call the ‘western’ global financial system is contingent upon all U.S. allies retaining the United States as their consumer base and stable currency center.  President Trump has exposed the vulnerability of Canada as he confronts the parasitic relationship {GO DEEP}.

In advance of the U.K positioning itself as the skirt behind which Canada can hide from the horrible Trump, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer extended an invitation for President Trump to attend a state visit in his honor later this year.  The effusive praise from Starmer during the White House meeting was keenly strategic, so too was their urgency in creating the first new-era free trade agreement with the USA.

Perhaps President Trump’s embrace of Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia should be viewed through this financial prism where the EU, U.K and Canada will ultimately go to war (together) against the efforts of President Trump.  Within the partnership of the UK, EU and Canada, the Snow Mexicans are the weakest link, the most vulnerable to collapse from Trump’s economic policy.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears on NBC Meet the Press to discuss the current status of the trade negotiations, tariffs and pending trade deals. In addition, Secretary Bessent outlines the construct of President Trump’s tax proposals and the intended benefits therein to middle-class working Americans.  WATCH (Transcript Below) 

[Transcript] KRISTEN WELKER: Welcome back. There are new economic warnings after the credit ratings agency, Moody’s, downgraded the United States’ credit rating one notch from its AAA rating. Moody’s citing concerns over the nation’s rising debt. It comes as President Trump’s tax bill suffered a setback in Congress this past week. Joining me now is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Secretary Bessent, welcome back to Meet the Press.

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Kristen, good to see you. Thanks for having me on.

KRISTEN WELKER: It’s wonderful to have you on after a long foreign trip. Thank you for being here. Let’s start right there with Moody’s downgrading the nation’s credit rating. And they do cite the debt. I want to read you a little bit of what Moody’s says. It says, quote, “If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, which is our base case, it will add around $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.” Several Republicans, Mr. Secretary, are citing similar concerns. Does the president’s tax bill need to do more to address the nation’s debt and deficit?

SEC. SCOTT BESSENT: Well, Kristen, first – first of all, I – I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator. I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies. Larry Summers and I don’t agree on everything, but he said that’s when they – they downgraded the U.S. in 2011. So it’s – it’s a lagging indicator. And just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the – in the past 100 days. It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have – have seen over the past four years. We inherited 6.7% deficit to GDP, the highest when we weren’t in a recession, not in a war. And we are determined to bring the spending down and grow the economy.

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Wait,… wha?  Prices were supposed to skyrocket, so said the experts, pundits, Wall Street analysts and all the ‘talking heads.’  Alas, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the April consumer price index [SEE HERE] and, shocker, prices on the critical consumer goods that matter most are dropping.

The rate of inflation dropped to a four-year low in April. Overall consumer prices increased 2.3% from a year earlier, down from 2.4% rise in March.  However, inside the number’s things get better.  Prices for groceries, food at home including eggs, used cars and gasoline all fell.

Meats, poultry and eggs dropped 1.6% overall.  The price of eggs dropped 12.7% for the month. [SEE TABLE 2]   Fuel Oil dropped 2.6%, propane dropped 4.7%.  If it’s a food product grown and harvested in America, the price dropped.  Remember that popular boycott by the Canadians on Orange Juice and citrus from Florida?  Oranges dropped 3.7% in price for American consumers; Citrus overall -2.8%.

The items that are critical to a middle-class or working-class family, all dropped in price.  This is exactly the same pricing outcome we experienced in 2017 that continued for two years.   Energy prices drive farm prices and the total food supply chain; the energy prices have dropped substantially since President Trump took office.

Keep an eye on the “Relative Importance Index” [first column table, 2], because this is where the BLS statisticians will start to play with the data in order to stop President Trump from getting credit for lower prices.  The BLS manipulating this index point is why CTH stopped using their data reports in 2022.  Many people were perplexed at the end of 2021 when suddenly the inflation data no longer made sense.  The BLS changed the priority weighting in order to assist Biden.

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Appearing on CNBC this morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gives an outline of the discussions between the USA and China.  Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held meetings with the Chinese delegation in Geneva, Switzerland this past weekend.

Pay attention to Secretary Bessent describing [05:40] how Chinese ‘overproduction’ is now reaching the shores of partnered nations, that is the element CTH previously outlined {SEE HERE}, which is a rather significant issue right now.  The goods themselves are not ‘generic’ in nature, they are branded high-end products awaiting labeling and distribution once their component part of the global tariff is determined.  This is part of the ‘urgency’ motive for Beijing to seek some understanding of the timeline.

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As expected by anyone with common sense, the statement by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng is considerably different from the U.S. media interpretation of the White House statement.

According to He Lifeng: […] “The atmosphere of the meeting was candid, in-depth and constructive. The meeting reached substantial progress and achieved important consensus. The two sides agreed on establishing a consultation mechanism for trade and economic issues, identified the lead persons on each side, and will carry on further consultations relating to trade and economic issues of their respective concerns. The two sides will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and will issue a joint statement reached on May 12.”

[…] “China’s position towards this trade war has been clear and consistent; that is, China doesn’t want to fight a trade war, because trade wars produce no winners.  But if the U.S. insists on forcing this war upon us, China will not be afraid of it and will fight to the end.” 

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This ‘clarification‘ of sorts by Big Panda should not come as a surprise, despite the White House press release and the wording of the title.

Neither Secretary Bessent nor USTR Greer would make an announcement of a “trade deal” in advance of President Trump’s personal announcement. PERIOD!

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President Donald Trump is confronting the dragon behind the panda mask with precision. It’s very obvious the prior reconnaissance, trade probes and tariff tests of ’17, ’18, ’19, are paying dividends.

President Trump has cut off the transnational shipping lanes by globalizing the tariffs against China. Beijing is in a forced holding pattern waiting to see the outcome of Southeast Asia and European trade agreements.

Having spent some serious time in the field in advance of ‘Liberty Day’ all of my contacts have the same message; China is trying to find position.

In a little reported reality, in order to offset the problem, many Chinese manufacturers have actually continued the production of several branded product lines (very well-known and established brands) despite the absence of orders for the finished goods from the companies.

Several shipments of those finished goods have started to arrive at China-partnered ports. This is very interesting, because it may lead to market dumping of a higher quality product than most anticipate.

Within the apparel sector, ASEAN consumers cannot afford the fashion branded product at the prices determined by the actual brand owners. However, there is now a strong likelihood -based on what is being reported by the receivers- that the product itself will be marketed -likely dumped- without the brand label. This is actually high-quality apparel distributed for a fraction of the price of the brand.

I’ll be getting more details on this soon, however, it looks like the broad outlines are verified by multiple sources. I’ll use some fake names to explain.

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The media have been going bananas wondering when President Trump will begin negotiations with China.  President Trump has been very clear that there is no need to open negotiations with China, but all discussions are welcome.

Essentially the point is that tariffs will remain in place until Beijing gets to a point where they acquiesce to the reality of President Trump’s terms for reciprocal trade.  The goal is to bring manufacturing back to the USA, not generate terms where manufacturing remains in China.

The Chinese trade delegation is scheduled to be in Switzerland at the same time as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to be there.  Both Bessent and Greer announced today they will meet with their Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of their travel to Switzerland.

USTR Press Release – […] “At President Trump’s direction, I am negotiating with countries to rebalance our trade relations to achieve reciprocity, open new markets, and protect America’s economic and national security,” said Ambassador Greer. “I look forward to having productive meetings with some of my counterparts as well as visiting with my team in Geneva who all work diligently to advance U.S. interests on a range of multilateral issues.”

While in Switzerland, Ambassador Greer will also meet with his counterpart from the People’s Republic of China to discuss trade matters.” (link)

Treasury Secretary Press Release – “During Secretary Bessent’s visit to Switzerland, he will meet with President Karin Keller-Sutter of Switzerland, during which the Secretary will follow up on their recent meeting on the sidelines of the recent World Bank Group (WBG) – International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings. 

While in Switzerland, Secretary Bessent will also meet with the lead representative on economic matters from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). (link)

As we previously noted, the Swiss are very interested in resolving their trade status quickly.

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