Last year President Donald Trump requested a national security Section 232 trade-investigation, to conducted by the U.S. Department of Commerce and Secretary Wilbur Ross, specifically focusing on U.S. steel and aluminum manufacturing.

The discussion continued last week as President Trump met with a group of republican and democrat members of congress to talk about trade policy and focus attention on the lack of American steel and aluminum production.   [The responses from the republican participants was very enlightening and disappointing.]

On Friday Commerce Secretary completed the industrial review and provided President Trump with trade recommendations to consider given the nature of the national security compromise.   See Outline Here.

Recommendations of the Steel Report:  Secretary Ross has recommended to the President that he consider the following alternative remedies to address the problem of steel imports:

1. A global tariff of at least 24% on all steel imports from all countries, or
2. A tariff of at least 53% on all steel imports from 12 countries (Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam) with a quota by product on steel imports from all other countries equal to 100% of their 2017 exports to the United States, or
3. A quota on all steel products from all countries equal to 63% of each country’s 2017 exports to the United States.

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Yesterday President Trump invited the media to keep their cameras on during a round-table discussion on trade.  He did this for a reason.  President Trump wanted the American voters to watch Republican politicians demand that he stop trying to bring manufacturing jobs to the United States.

In essence, Trump doing what Trump does best, played the role of Toto and pulled back the curtain on the Republican anti-American corporate business agenda.  The republicans in attendance never paused to reflect upon the sunlight or the reason for their specific invitations. They are comfortable back-room deals and POTUS Toto relaxed them perfectly.

One by one the Republicans took-the-bait and fully exposed themselves.  Lamar Alexander, Mike Lee, Pat Toomey and Roy Blout all took turns telling POTUS to quit trying to save American high-wage jobs, drop the national economic view and just accept multinational corporate globalism.

The subsequent full-throated establishment display stands as one of the greatest plays of the Trump administration to date. However, it was Republican Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin who really went the full distance:

[Transcript] […] In Wisconsin, a big manufacturing state, in seven years I have not visited one manufacturer that could hire enough people. That was certainly my experience in the last 20, 25 years. For a host of reasons, we tell our kids you have to get a four-year degree. We pay people not to work. So we do need to be concerned about, in such a tight labor market, do we have enough workers in manufacturing.

So my final point is, it makes no sense for me to try and bring back high labor-content manufacturing to America. We need to do the value added things. And so I would just say, proceed with real caution there.  (more)

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Earlier today one of the more consequential meetings took place between President Trump and his economic team -vs- the professional UniParty apparatus consisting of multinational corporate-purchased Democrats and Republicans.

The policy discussion isn’t sexy or headline making from the perspective of the U.S. media; however, the resulting outcomes will have more of a bearing on you and your family than any other economic policy conflict in this administration.

On one side we have President Trump and a very focused policy and trade group containing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Robert Lighthizer. On the other side the corporate UniParty apparatus consisting of U.S. Chamber of Commerce Republicans and Democrats.

An encapsulated view would be Main Street (Trump) -vs- Wall Street (UniParty).

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This is THE battle. This is the “trillions at stake“. Everything else is chaff and countermeasures; a war is being waged around this financial issue. Everything within the current conflict is downstream from the economic argument around these issues.

This is the epicenter of the entire institutional conflict against President Trump. This is why THE SWAMP, through all its various affiliated and indulgent enterprises – including the intelligence apparatus, are waging a battle against the disruption that is President Trump.

It is the money.

Period.

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The NAFTA sell-off is underway.  Relax.  No big deal.  The “NAFTA Reality Correction” is approximately 5 to 7%.  Multinationals hold greatest exposure. Everything is temporary.

(LINK To Story)

Twists and turns as Wall Street paper economy shifts toward ultimate equilibrium with Main Street real economy.  Real company P&L results (MAGA) will eventually replace speculative stock valuations.  Volatility is the norm while navigating the space between.

President Trump will pull the U.S. out of NAFTA and direct the U.S. Trade Representative to engage in bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico individually.   There is no other possible alternative and here’s why.

First, the essential problem with NAFTA was an evolution over time.  In its current form NAFTA became an exploited doorway into the coveted U.S. market.  Asian economic interests, large multinational corporations, invested in Mexico and Canada as a way to work around any direct trade deals with the U.S.
By shipping parts to Mexico and/or Canada; and by deploying satellite manufacturing and assembly facilities in Canada and/or Mexico; China, Asia and to a lesser extent EU corporations exploited a loophole.  Through a process of building, assembling or manufacturing their products in Mexico/Canada those foreign corporations can skirt U.S. trade tariffs and direct U.S. trade agreements.  The finished foreign products entered the U.S. under NAFTA rules.
Why deal with the U.S. when you can just deal with Mexico, and use NAFTA rules to ship your product directly into the U.S. market?
This exploitative approach, a backdoor to the U.S. market, was the primary reason for massive foreign investment in Canada and Mexico; it was also the primary reason why candidate Donald Trump, now President Donald Trump, wanted to shut down that loophole and renegotiate NAFTA.
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Oh dear, Prime Minister Rainbow Sparkle-Socks is issuing threats now.

“We aren’t going to take any old deal,” Trudeau said Friday at a town hall in Nanaimo, British Columbia. “Canada is willing to walk away from Nafta if the United States proposes a bad deal.
We won’t be pushed around.” (link)

The backdrop is important context here.  Prime Minister Twinkles has been watching Trump, Ross, Mnuchin and Lighthizer closely.  Two months ago Twinkles attempted to launch economic leverage by entering direct trade discussions with China; but there’s a problem – Twinkles actually believes Beijing is ‘playful panda’.  PM Rainbow-brite doesn’t grasp that Playful Panda is a mask.  [Wrong place for leverage.]
Trudeau is willing to open his door to Chairman Xi without realizing once inside Beijing will hold open the door for arriving goods, and shuttle out the Canadian manufacturers. Attachment to China is a one-way proposition; and China only indulged Canada from the context of using the Canadian NAFTA door, as a tariff workaround to gain entry to the U.S. market.
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It can be a little confusing to listen to business or economic news analysts discussing the current state of the economy.  They are all generally positive, but the inherent delivery of their forecasts is cast against the backdrop of their experience.  Almost no-one, currently in the business of economic analysis, has experience, life skills, analytical training or educational understanding based on anything other than a Wall Street economic outlook.
Business Schools stopped teaching the principles of Main Street economics forty years ago.  All modern analytical tools, and the data-systems therein, were structurally built upon an economic theory that establishes Key Performance Indexes based on Wall Street economic models.  Titans of industry were replaced by fast-talkers pushing paper.
The paper economy and the monetary policy therein, has been the underlying architecture of economic analysis for decades.  Within this process Main Street U.S.A., was assigned the role of a “service driven” economy. Institutionally everyone accepted this reality.  Thus, those same voices are conflicted and cannot reconcile today’s economic shifts.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve is now estimating the potential growth for the first quarter of this year at 5.4%.  This is a stunningly high projection when historic assumptions are factored.  However, in the new MAGAnomic economy, it’s high, but not out of line.

The Main Street economic engine is roaring back to life.  Real consumer spending jumped from 3.1 percent to 4 percent in the latest quarter.  Consumer spending is approximately two-thirds of our GDP.  However, the real key figure is ‘investment”.   Private fixed-investment growth surged from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent, that’s where the growth projections should be focused.  Trump’s MAGAnomic policies are driving investment in the U.S. economic base.  The current growth in private investment has doubled.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on CNBC to discuss ongoing trade initiatives including NAFTA, China and the more broad Asia background.  Additionally, Wilburine discusses growth in GDP and anticipated economic enhancements from the tax cut legislation.

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Earlier today it was announced that ADP private payroll growth for January has exceeded 234,000 jobs gained.   “The job market juggernaut marches on,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a statement. “Given the strong January job gain, 2018 is on track to be the eighth consecutive year in which the economy creates over 2 million jobs.  (read full story on payroll report)
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NAFTA renegotiation round six ended yesterday in Canada will no substantive progress on the most contentious trade issues.  One negotiation chapter on corruption was closed, but there was little to no agreement on much else.
Each of the primary Trade Representatives gave a closing statement at the conclusion of Round #6.  U.S.T.R. Lighthizer blasted Canada for attempting to inject schemes, fraud and deceptive dealing within the negotiations. Princess Rainbow Sparkles from Canada tried to pretend the Canadian proposal was realistic.  It was all awkward.  Hopefully President Trump will soon get us out of this nonsense. Lighthizer Transcript below video:

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Ambassador Lighthizer: It is a pleasure to be here in Quebec. Montreal is one of the great cities of the world, and I have not been back in many years, and I’ve missed it. I used to come here in the 70s and 80s with my wife and children to go to Mont-Tremblant and learn how to ski. We loved the French culture, we loved the excellent food, the wonderful skiing and as I recall, it was cold all the time. That hasn’t changed at least.
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In September of 2015 we shared one of the overarching reasons why CTH would support Donald Trump for President. – SEE HERE –  This week, the sentiment behind that reasoning showed up in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum; we could not be more proud.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (Wednesday), Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (Thursday) and U.S. President Donald Trump (Friday), collectively outlined how our new U.S. trade and economic policy would engage with the world.
Many media voices (narrative engineers) will, and have, continue to obfuscate, spin, and make predictive declarations about U.S. economic policies based on their ideological views of what President Trump could do, should do, or will do.  They will try to convince the  American electorate of POTUS Trump’s forward plans.  Most of what they declare is false.
In case you missed it, and if you want to know what the accurate compass heading is, skip the media and allow yourselves to rely on the direct message as delivered. You’ll avoid a great deal of heartburn.
The MAGA economic policy explanation begins with trade, Wilbur Ross:

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The MAGA economic policy explanation is enhanced by finance, Steven Mnuchin:
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