This is layers of odd.  As many readers are aware, the prices of fertilizer have skyrocketed as supplies have been heavily impacted by increased energy costs and supply chain issues.  Many people have worried if a shortage of fertilizer may impact farm yields this year.

Against this backdrop CF Industries, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of hydrogen and nitrogen fertilizer, is warning its customers that Union Pacific Railway Lines is now restricting the amount of container tonnage they will permit.  [Press Release Here]

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today informed customers it serves by Union Pacific rail lines that railroad-mandated shipping reductions would result in nitrogen fertilizer shipment delays during the spring application season and that it would be unable to accept new rail sales involving Union Pacific for the foreseeable future. The Company understands that it is one of only 30 companies to face these restrictions.

CF Industries ships to customers via Union Pacific rail lines primarily from its Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana and its Port Neal Complex in Iowa. The rail lines serve key agricultural areas such as Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas and California.

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…Rule two, there is no bigger rule than the first rule.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that Machiavelli quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.

Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the economic mess of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate Trump, and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending Trump.  Both wings of the DC UniParty fear Trump.  Extreme efforts at control are a reaction to fear.  In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

Everything, is about the economics of it.

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Energy development companies had identified 744,000 acres of federal land which could yield significant returns for oil and gas extraction.  Today the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) authorized leases for 173 parcels on 144,000 acres; approximately 80% less than was identified by energy companies.  [BLM Press Release Here]

Dept of Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (pictured left) shared, “today, we begin to reset how and what we consider to be the highest and best use of Americans’ resources for the benefit of all current and future generations.”

The Biden administration, together with tribal leadership are concerned about environmental justice and sustainable energy equity for a host of multigenerational shareholder elements within the limited areas under consideration.

As the press release notes, “this pragmatic approach focuses leasing on parcels near existing development and infrastructure, such as gathering lines that can help reduce venting and flaring, and will help conserve the resilience of intact public lands and functioning ecosystems.

The new leases are mostly for areas where already existing oil and gas exploration is taking place, and the Biden administration has raised the federal royalty charges from 12.5% to a new 18.75%.   In order to keep upward pressure on gasoline prices, Green New Deal national target price $7/gal, the new leases will not be available until later this year.

[Media Article Here]

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Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here.  All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.

The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose.  They did not make a mistake.  The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates.  It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees.  WATCH:

The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

So that’s why they waited.  But here’s the worse part….

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a remarkable speech today outlining “the future of the international order,” in the aftermath of the global pandemic and the current conflict in Ukraine.  Within the speech, Yellen outlines the priorities of the United States according to the current administration and the international financial mechanisms that she controls.

The speech is quite jaw-dropping when you consider the nature of her position, and the fact that she is an unelected bureaucrat within government.

As you read the speech {Transcript Here}, keep in mind she is not the President of the United States, or the commissioner of the New World Order, yet she presents herself as authorized to control the geopolitical constructs of the Biden administration.  The hubris is astounding.

Secretary Yellen: outlines the goals and objectives of the international order, predicts a concerning global famine, warns against the cleaving of financial mechanisms for international trade as an outcome of the Ukraine conflict, threatens any nation who does not support the western political alliance and outlines the need for decarbonization of the global economy.

Yellen expresses all of these powers from the position of a U.S. Treasury Secretary – the equivalent of a government financial minister.  Speech highlights with emphasis mine:

(Transcript) – […] “Russia’s horrific conduct has violated international law, including core tenets of the UN Charter—challenging countries to demonstrate where they stand with respect to the international order that has been built since World War II.  Therefore, when I speak about a changed global outlook, I’m not just talking about growth forecasts.  I’m also referring to our conception of international cooperation going forward.  

I will focus my remarks today on the significance of international cooperation in this current environment and for our future.

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The Financial Times is reporting {link here, paywall} that Finland and Sweden are likely to join the NATO alliance.  According to the reporting {also in Reuters} the application from Finland is expected in June and Sweden shortly thereafter.

Adding Sweden and Finland would be a major escalation in both the western conflict and provocations against Russia, obviously, justified by western leaders as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  However, in the big analysis, the global financial system appears to be the larger issue.

From the outset of the Russian military operation into Ukraine, it was obvious the western alliance was intent on an almost ‘all or nothing‘ confrontation with Russia. The only limits to what the alliance was willing to do was trigger a nuclear showdown through direct military action against Russia to protect the non-NATO country of Ukraine.

The NATO and western government response was a fast system of financial sanctions intended to cripple the Russian economy.  However, Russia responded to those actions with countermoves on the trade front, beginning to establish the first ever non-Euro and non-dollar-based trade system.  In essence, a financial trading system created by the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Therefore, if we think about the current status of geopolitics and international finance, the NATO response now involves a priority of controlling and protecting the previously established financial structures of global trade.  A NATO effort to avoid the cleaving is now underway as an outcome of the sanctions against Russia.

As one person put it, “This is a fight for the dollar as reserve currency. Imagine trying to maintain our debt when nobody wants treasury notes. If BRICS succeed, US collapses as an economic power. On the other hand, if we win, Klaus Schwab’s nutty world wins.”  I tend to agree with this outlook because it parallels something we see domestically in the U.S.

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The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported on Friday they are recording the highest Food Price Index since they started recording thirty years ago. With record highs in prices for cereals, vegetable oils, dairy and meats

This issue has been a slow burning fuse toward the biggest powder keg in modern history, and it is about to get very serious.  We have been warning about it since last fall {Go Deep}.  In the most deliberate and painstaking ways possible, we have been urging everyone to take this issue seriously.

The background cause is complex and started with the 2020 government response to the pandemic.  U.S. and international government intervention in the food supply process has been FUBAR from the beginning. Every action taken since early 2020 has been one bad policy after another; building failure upon failure, crisis upon crisis, bad decision upon bad decision, bringing us to a precipice summed up by saying “the absence of food will change things.”

Some will say the food prices we are about to experience –and the crisis it will create– was deliberate.  Others will say this was the cumulative outcome of major failures on the part of the government.  At this point the former makes more sense, and the latter looks like a justification and excuse, because if government entities were really serious about food prices and shortages, they would be taking pragmatic steps to mitigate the problem; they are not.

There are simple things government could do, such as helping farmers offset targeted fertilizer costs, providing relief for diesel fuel and energy costs, and taking other simple steps that would help the agricultural industry.

Instead of responding with the urgency this would demand, the collective government action has been to ignore the problem (talk soundbites), and give speeches about using subsidies to offset the end result (consumers) – without ever addressing the root cause.  All this while fueling conflict in Ukraine and chasing radical energy policies under the guise of global climate change.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO) keeps track of food prices and projections using a global index [SEE HERE].  What they are calculating, and what they are projecting based on the current calculations, is a major increase in food prices combined with a major increase in food scarcity due to the unaffordability of food products.

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was overwhelmingly reelected last weekend {LINK}, despite the massive efforts against him by the European Union, western and euro-centric multinational globalists.   Brussels was furious at the Hungarian people.

The European Commission responded to the election by announcing they would fine Hungary €5 billion {LINK} for not following the ideology of the collective New World Order and western democratic norms.  The EU intent is to punish Hungary for perceived transgressions against the European order.

Delivering another blow, while pushing back against the EU, Western Alliance and NATO today, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Hungary will purchase Russian energy in rubles.  With the overwhelming support of the Hungarian people behind him, Prime Minister Orban is not going to be kowtowed by Brussels pressure.

BUDAPEST/LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) – Hungary said on Wednesday it was prepared to pay rubles for Russian gas, breaking ranks with the European Union which has sought a united front in opposing Moscow’s demand for payment in the currency.

Hungary will pay for shipments in rubles if Russia asks it to, Prime Minister Viktor Orban told a news conference on Wednesday in reply to a Reuters question.

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My apologies in getting late to this but the BLS has completely revamped the way they calculate employment and all of the familiar data tables are revised. So, it takes a little longer to get to cut through the clutter and get to the data that matters.

Overall, the BLS report [DATA Here] shows 431,000 jobs regained in March from the government closures during the pandemic.

Despite the job regain number being less than expected, it’s not bad at all.

As expected, leisure and hospitality jobs [Table B-1] showed the strongest rebound with 112,000 jobs. With 25,000 job gains in hotels and 61,000 in food services (restaurants).  A little more than 2 million jobs have been regained in the last year from the COVID-19 lockdowns in this sector.

There are a few troubling indicators like a decrease in residential building jobs (-2,600), and a surprising decrease of 6,000 jobs in trucking and transportation.  Retail overall gained 49,000 jobs with most of them in the food and beverage sales sector.  However, retail furniture stores lost 1,600, electronics stores lost 1,300 and garden supply stores lost 1,900.

The retail job pattern would seem to indicate consumer spending being squeezed and priorities on spending leading to job losses in non-priority retail shops.  Boosting the disposable income concern, is a statistically significant loss of 5,000 jobs in the retail beauty and personal care stores.

On the upside, business and professional service jobs in March had a nice lift with 102,000 jobs added.

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Hopefully this does not come as a surprise to readers here; however, according to analysis by industry insiders, Chicken prices are likely to increase by 70% this year once the full price increases in grain, used as feed, start to take hold.  Overall, we will likely see a leveling off in beef prices, but pork (due to soybeans) and chicken (due to grain) will increase significantly.

The issue is one we noted in December of last year when identifying the downstream consequences of fertilizer and component products used for the production of corn, wheat and soybeans crops. “You might say those crops do not seem like they are that important.  However, keep in mind that Corn, Wheat and Soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.” {Go Deep}

(Fox Business) – Evercore ISI issued a protein inflation note this week projecting that most protein prices are forecasted to increase “substantially” due to the higher feed costs, with chicken breast reaching as high as 70% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  The analysis said pork and ground beef could climb as high as 20% year-over-year during the same period. (more)

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