I am going to outline a contextual background for the Iranian conflict and my opinion of the current situation in detail. In short, I stand with President Trump’s position, but many of the influential aspects are being missed.

The anti-interventionist podcasters and the Israel-first advocates are both wrong. An honest and pragmatic review of the entire regional dynamic is needed.  Which includes the big picture question that no one is asking.

In the interim, here is the statement from President Trump describing the current status, against the backdrop of Vice President JD Vance’s earnest efforts to negotiate a resolution:

[VIA TRUTH SOCIAL] – “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World.

They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance?

There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them.

I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.

The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!

In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people.

My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!

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As Vice President JD Vance and the U.S. negotiating team meet with interim, hopefully ‘governing’, Iranian officials in Pakistan, the U.S. Navy and military have entered the Strait of Hormuz.

First, the announcement from President Donald Trump:

“The Fake News Media has lost total credibility, not that they had any to begin with. Because of their massive Trump Derangement Syndrome (Sometimes referred to as TDS!), they love saying that Iran is “winning” when, in fact, everyone knows that they are LOSING, and LOSING BIG!

Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft apparatus is nonexistent, Radar is dead, their Missile and Drone Factories have been largely obliterated along with the Missiles and Drones themselves and, most importantly, their longtime “Leaders” are no longer with us, praise be to Allah!

The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may “bunk” into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea. We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves.

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A significant data-point to keep an eye on is whether there will be an extension to the suspension of sanctions against Russian energy products (oil and LNG) for the global market.

The current sanctions relief measures are scheduled to expire on April 11th, tomorrow.

April 9 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev ​is currently in the U.S. and ‌is meeting members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace ​deal for Ukraine and U.S.-Russia economic ​cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit ⁠told Reuters.

The visit comes before the ​U.S. decision on whether to extend ​sanctions relief on Russian oil, which expires on April 11 and could also be on the agenda.

The United ​States issued a 30-day waiver for countries ​to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products currently ‌stranded ⁠at sea, in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by ​Iran war.

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During an appearance at the Hudson Institute, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is asked to summarize the administration’s approach to upcoming USMCA (CUSMA) renegotiations.

USTR Greer emphasized the focus is on outcomes in review of the USMCA, not focusing on the previous trade structure itself. The results carry more weight than reviewing what was intended.  On June 1st Greer anticipates telling congress that the U.S. intends withdrawal, pending unilateral negotiations with both Canada and Mexico to resolve conflict.

Greer describes two different protocols within any negotiation to deal with the structural differences between both Canada and Mexico.  Those differences include a completely different import/export profile with each country, different sectors of goods, difference in the wage rates within each country and a structural difference in the way each country is establishing their own, independent free trade agreements with other third-party countries.  These baselines form the reason to tell congress of the dissolution, and on July 1st inform both Canada and Mexico about it.

In the interim, the points of conflict are currently being negotiated with Mexico toward resolution.  The same negotiation is expected later between the U.S. and Canada; however, it sounds like that engagement will take place after congress is informed of the points of conflict.  WATCH (prompted):

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You would have to read dozens of energy industry reports to get the information provided here in this exceptionally well-done news segment.

Sky News economics and data editor Ed Conway presents a fantastic look at how the issue with the Strait of Hormuz has impacted the global distribution of energy, oil, LNG and Kerosene (jet fuel), with particular emphasis on the vulnerabilities of the “modern industrialized western nations.”

Conway never points the finger to the “net zero” carbon goals of Europe, the U.K and Australia. However, he shows the outcome of their dependence on production and refining by other non-participating nations. The timelines clearly show, as the Green Energy policies were pushed the vulnerability inherent within any supply shock begins to get worse. This is a very well-presented data-driven analysis that is worth watching.

The last two-minutes also shred the claims by EU and British leadership, and highlights how Europe and the U.K are now dependent on the United States to meet their energy needs. WATCH:

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National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett appears on Bloomberg News to discuss the US March jobs report and oil market supply disruptions related to the military action in Iran against the impact of oil prices on the US economy.

Director Hassett notes the continued goal of the Trump MAGAnomic plan is to build momentum, keep driving domestic investment and the short-term impact from Iran should mitigate quickly.  WATCH:

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They stopped their oil and gas exploration.  They chose to chase ‘net zero’ academic pontifications.  They closed their refining operations. They took apart their coal-fired electricity plants.  They disassembled their nuclear power capabilities. Then, the absolute cherry on the proverbial cake, they voted to stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia.

The EU is now in the Find Out stage of their FAFO positioning.

Gasoline prices have skyrocketed. The last shipments of jet fuel have arrived. Major airline carriers are cancelling flights due to lack of fuel.  Faster than the EU can organize meetings to discuss their position, EU destined LNG shipments have diverted to southeast Asia and India as the ASEAN nations bid higher purchase prices for the vessels literally on the water.

Folks, it’s quite an article written by EU Politico as they outline how each of the leaders from the nation states are now discussing how vulnerable they are to the changed oil/gas environment with the mid east conflict ongoing.  The entire energy sector in Europe is now in crisis mode with leaders predicting it will get much worse within days, not weeks.

EU Politico – “Germany’s Friedrich Merz warns the economic fallout from the war in Iran is on track to rival that of the Covid pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[…] With the war in Iran threatening to choke off energy flows for the foreseeable future, Europe is facing a supply shock that promises to cripple manufacturing, ground airlines, hike up the price of food, spike borrowing costs and send inflation spiraling back to crisis levels.

As the last tankers carrying fossil fuels from the Persian Gulf pull into European ports, the scale of what is about to hit seems to be dawning on the continent’s leaders.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears on Fox News to discuss the various goals and objectives of the U.S. military operation against Iran.  As part of the interview Secretary Rubio was asked about the strategic conflicts and hypocrisies now flowing from NATO member states.

The U.S. supports our NATO posture in Europe in part because it provides us with strategic military bases and operations that are considered vital to our national interests.  However, as outlined in the Iran conflict, when we need to use those strategic bases the NATO member states withdraw previous permissions.  France has blocked us from flying over their airspace, Spain and Italy have said the U.S. cannot use our military bases on their soil for operations. The U.K has refused to protect and/or escort their own energy assets.

The NATO membership is now a one-way street where they demand our military protection, but Europe blocks us from using our own military assets for our independent operations.

Europe, while hiding behind the NATO protection skirt of the U.S, is simultaneously telling the U.S. what we can and cannot do with our own military.  Secretary Rubio and President Trump are now confronting this very visible one-way benefit head on. WATCH (prompted).

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Against the backdrop of the Iran conflict, crisis in the Middle East and the disruption of energy supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.K Prime Minister Keir Starmer held an urgent meeting with British business leaders, finance and bankers as well as U.K insurance leaders.  At the conclusion of that meeting, he informed media of a national address.

During the national address to the people of Great Britain, Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that events in the Middle East have forever changed the landscape of U.K. economic and geopolitical policy.  Signaling an inflection point crossed, the British prime minister announced that urgent actions were being taken to mitigate a national crisis.

Additionally, accepting the U.S. position toward NATO, and the U.K appears to be permanently shifted, Starmer said the British relationship with Europe now becomes critical to their vital national security interests.  Against the backdrop of an end to the “special relationship” with America, the Brexit independence from the European Union is now a threat.

The United Kingdom must find a way to reunite with the European Union, because if it remains alone, without key support and protection from the USA, the British Empire is at risk of collapse.  WATCH: 

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President Trump is also scheduled to deliver a national address at 9:00pm Wednesday.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave an interview with Fox News last night specifically centered around a changed U.S.-NATO relationship (that interview coming next).

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President Trump sent a message to the U.K and European leaders who are facing a fuel shortage, “come get your own oil.”

(Via Truth Social) – “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”  ~ President DJT

(FOR FRANCE) – “The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory. France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the “Butcher of Iran,” who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!” ~ President DJT

(For Great Britain) – “Melania and I are pleased to announce that Their Majesties, the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, will visit the United States for a Historic State Visit from April 27-30th, which will include a beautiful Banquet Dinner at the White House on the evening of April 28th. This momentous occasion will be even more special this year, as we commemorate the 250th Anniversary of our Great Country. I look forward to spending time with the King, whom I greatly respect. It will be TERRIFIC!“

DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

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