Mohamed El-Erian, a Blooomberg Opinion contributor, cracks me up in his efforts to avoid speaking directly.  Generally, El-Erian knows the situation, he was one of the first to identify the issue with inflation in March 2021.   However, he continues avoiding any mention that the U.S. economy is already in a negative position for growth.

Consider this…. In this interview El-Erian says he believes the Fed will flip-flop and lower rates in reaction to what is happening in the economy.  Keep in mind, the only reason for the Fed to reverse rates so quickly is if the economy is already in a demand side contraction and the latest .75% increase in rate is being done into a negative GDP environment.

Of course, the reality is exactly that.  The U.S. economy is already contracting, mostly because of inflation chewing up the supply side, and the Fed is factually raising interest rates into an economy already in a demand side recession.  But everyone must pretend that’s not the case, so here’s El-Erian saying Jerome Powell is going to end up reversing himself, flip-flopping, which doesn’t make sense if you don’t first establish that the economy is right now shrinking as he speaks.  WATCH:

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Y’all saw this coming months ago.  The Biden administration is now considering sending taxpayer funded “gas cards” to taxpayers who cannot afford the gasoline prices created by the Biden administration energy policy.  Yes, murica’ it’s a circle of stupid.

WASHINGTON – […] Biden officials are taking a second look at whether the federal government could send rebate cards out to millions of American drivers to help them pay at gas stations — an idea they examined months ago before ruling it out. Aides had found that shortages in the U.S. chip industry would make it hard to produce enough rebate cards, two people familiar with the matter said. White House officials also fear there would be no way to prevent consumers from using them for purchases other than gasoline, according to another person familiar with the discussions.

[…] Biden aides have also looked in recent days at invoking the Defense Production Act to move diesel and other refined products should localized shortages materialize, two people familiar with the matter said.

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There have been several videos on social media about a significant loss of cattle in Kansas due to extreme heat.  During a segment on his broadcast tonight, Tucker Carlson interviews cattleman Steve Stratford about the circumstances and the potential impact to the U.S. beef supply.  WATCH:

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We have been waiting for the non-essential durable goods side of the manufacturing sector to start showing evidence of demand side contraction in consumer purchases.  There have been subtle sector-by-sector indicators of consumer spending shifts for several months; however, today we get the direct evidence from Samsung.

Samsung is one of the leading manufacturers of consumer electronics and products that require chips.  For three months the electronics sector has shown background signals that inventory was not moving.  One of the more recent indicators of a demand side contraction was the lack of upward price pressure inside the electronics sector.  Essentially, consumers are not purchasing the current inventory, so prices are actually dropping in this segment.  [SEE TABLE 2, CPI Chart]:

Despite overall inflation of 8.6% within the CPI, deep inside the category indexes you will note that electronic prices are actually dropping.  Televisions -9.5%, Video equipment -4.3%, etc.  Video and audio products overall dropped in price 1.4% for May, and dropped 5.2% year-over-year.

The supply chain in this sector is lengthy. Meaning inventory builds slowly as consumers stop purchasing in the USA.  Retail store inventory turns slow, store inventory climbs, then warehouses inventories climb as stores do not need product. The negative boxcar effect travels back to the manufacturer overseas over the course of several purchase cycles.  Eventually, everyone within the sector is telling the supplier we do not need product.  Then the manufacturer has to quickly slowdown raw material.

Due to lengthy supply chains, including trans-pacific shipments, the process to stop deliveries in this electronic goods sector is around 90-days before the drop in retail sales reaches the manufacturer to stop production.  Here is the announcement from Samsung:

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The people controlling policy behind the Biden administration do not care about polling or political consequence.  Biden is the one-term disposable tool for their collective effort to fundamentally change the United States.  They have a singular focus on pushing the most destructive and consequential Green New Deal policy regardless of collateral damage.  For them, using Joe Biden is a one-way ticket.

That said, none of the current political officeholders within the Democrat apparatus are going to escape the blast radius from this chaos.  CNN runs a segment asking the question, how bad is the damage going to be from the Joe Biden economic policy?  WATCH (90 secs):

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A contracted mercenary has no legal recognition or protection as a prisoner of war.  Two American mercenary soldiers have been captured by Russian forces and now present a rather unique issue for the Biden administration.   The traditional end result for captured mercenaries is execution; however, Russian President Vladimir Putin may not want to hang these two State Dept. conscripts.

(Via Telegraph) – Two former US servicemen have been captured during fighting with Russian forces in Ukraine, The Telegraph has been told. The pair were taken prisoner during a fierce battle outside the north-east city of Kharkiv last week, according to comrades who were fighting alongside them.

Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, had been serving as volunteers with a regular Ukrainian army unit. They are believed to be the first US servicemen to end up as Russian prisoners of war. They join a growing number of Western military volunteers captured by Russian forces, including at least two Britons.

Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner have already been told they face the death penalty as “mercenaries”. The capture of the two Americans will be diplomatically sensitive as the Kremlin may seek to use it as proof that America is becoming directly involved in the war. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is likely to demand significant concessions to release them. (read more)

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Much is being made of Mayra Flores flipping Texas CD-34 (South Austin through Rio Grande Valley) from democrat to republican with a special election victory last night.  Indeed, a great many cocktail class republicans, those who couldn’t identify a taco without a bell next to it, are waxing philosophically about the political ramifications and what it means.

However, in ordinary terms, what Flores did was highlight a commonsense cultural disconnect between modern leftists and working-class Latinos who carry one of the best and most valuable dispositions for this day and age…. An unwillingness to pretend.

Men have penises and cannot have babies.  Women do not have penises and can have babies. That might sound radical given the incessant drumbeat from leftist, DC, Marxist democrats who manipulate sociology and science, but it’s the truth.

Spend time with any Latino group, family, friends or coworkers and start talking about the modern political left, and you will quickly find out this is one socioeconomic group who are not into this modern cultural pretending.  Their willingness to speak quiet truth is refreshing, even if they -at first- keep quiet until they see that you are not sold into the cultural ‘isms’ of madness.

Faith and family are important to the Latino community.  Additionally, a tradition of respect for pragmatic commonsense within the social fabric of the Latin and Mexican culture also inoculates them from gender nonsense.  It takes a few generations of American cultural infection before the commonsense synapse is numbed by the democrat drumbeat.

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The White House shares the contents of another phone call between Joe Biden and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today in a media release.  According to the details of the call, a generous Joe Biden has directed another $1 billion in aid to the laundry operation in order to assist Ukraine “families to purchase essential items.”

WHITE HOUSE – “This morning, I spoke with President Zelenskyy to discuss Russia’s brutal and ongoing war against Ukraine.

[…] I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine.

[…] We also remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian people whose lives have been ripped apart by this war. Today, I am also announcing an additional $225 million in humanitarian assistance to help people inside Ukraine, including by supplying safe drinking water, critical medical supplies and health care, food, shelter, and cash for families to purchase essential items.” (read more)

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I am tired and weary of the bullshit from every side of the political continuum -particularly the professionally republican idiots- that continue to hide the reality of the situation.  We are adults, let us talk honestly in the framework of reality; that will allow prudent preparation for the massive crisis we are about to experience.

When the tenant realizes they have a leaking fish tank, they realize they are going to be financially responsible for the water damage.  The tenant concocts a plan to avoid responsibility. The tenant intentionally loosens a pipe in the bathroom creating water damage, thereby hiding the fish tank leak.

The owner is now on the hook for the repair. The tenant escapes liability.

The people behind Joe Biden knew their radical transformation of energy policy was going to create massive economic damage.

The people behind Biden used the opportunity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict to trigger economic sanctions they knew would worsen the global inflation damage they were creating through energy policy.

Economic sanctions against Russia were as used as the broken pipe in the bathroom to hide the energy policy fish tank leak.  All of the media discussing the situation are now pretending not to know this.  The conservative pundits are a combination of pretending and too stupid to actually see what is happening.

BLOOMBERG – […] There’s no sign that administration officials feel their sanctions policy was a mistake or that they want to dial back the pressure. If anything, officials have said a key US goal is to ensure Russia can’t do to other nations what it has done in Ukraine. 

But the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected. 

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The U.S. economy is 70% driven by consumer spending.  When consumers stop spending the economy shrinks, it is that simple.  The U.S. Dept of Commerce has released the May retail sales [pdf DATA HERE], showing a 0.3% drop in retail sales for the month.  If you are interested in details, look at Table-2.

The critical point to remember is this sentence extracted from CNBC, “the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which increased 1% for the month on the headline number and 0.6% excluding food and energy.”  Everyone ignores this point, and every MSM economist pretends not to know it.

Retail sales -as measured in units purchased- have been in a contracting position since June of 2021.  When the current data shows a drop of -0.3% in May, the actual drop in retail sales is much, much greater.  The dept of commerce calculates retail sales in dollars.  When prices are 20% higher and sales are low, retailers are selling less stuff (less units) at higher prices.  This has been the reality of our economy for several months.  This is also why productivity has been declining for more than a year.

If you take the 8.6% inflation rate (far understated) and an aggregate drop in sales of 0.3% (again, far understated as a measure of inflation), that means consumers are spending limited incomes on critical or essential purchases like housing, food, fuel and energy.  Consumers are not purchasing durable goods; people are hunkering down.

Yearly retail sales (May ’21 compared to May ’22) are +8.1%.  However, yearly retail inflation for the same period is +8.6%.  Again, reflecting that less stuff is being purchased inside the economy at higher prices.  If the commerce dept was measuring actual units being purchased, we would be seeing massive drops in sales.

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