For those not paying close attention, the G7 is in serious trouble right now.  The G7 includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and Germany.  The EU and Japan are on the verge of a central bank financial crisis.  Germany is the heart of the EU and their economy is FUBAR as a result of sanctions against Russia, their energy dependence and an internal inflation rate exceeding 30%.

The G7 spending response to the COVID pandemic, a collective decision outlined by the World Economic Forum and central bank organizers, has created a massive inflation crisis amid all attached economies.  Making matters worse the Build Back Better agenda promoting climate friendly energy policy over fossil fuels is pouring gasoline on the raging inferno of economic disruption.

The EU and Japanese central banks are tenuous at best, and the U.S. has seemingly positioned Europe and Asia for even further economic pain as a result of sanctions against Russia (EU) and a contracting U.S. economy impacting Asia.  The intentional global cleaving is not working out too well as the G7 leaders assemble for their summit in the Bavarian Alps.   This is the backdrop for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.  In essence, the G7 climate policy cannot be sustained simultaneously with the German economy surviving:

GERMANY –  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said he wants to put soaring inflation, the energy crisis and climate change at the center of the agenda when he meets fellow G7 leaders at Schloss Elmau in the Bavarian Alps.  

Germany, which holds this year’s G7 rotating presidency, is hosting the gathering of the heads of state and government of the world’s seven leading industrialized nations from Sunday through Tuesday.

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All things considered, a remarkably honest article from CNBC outlines the likelihood for a wave of retail bankruptcies.   In part the issue is driven by COVID bailout and stimulus funds that inflated the balance sheets and hid the natural contraction that was taking place in the last half of 2021 through today.  However, bar far the biggest issue is a contraction in current consumer spending due to severe cost increases in housing, food, fuel and energy.

As we have discussed at length, consumer spending patterns shifted radically in the last year.

Despite the 2021 third and fourth quarter giving the artificial impression of strong demand, inventories were climbing and productivity in the manufacturing and services dropped dramatically.   In combination these two data points both indicated a contraction in demand.

The first quarter of 2022 showed a -1.5% overall GDP.  The second quarter ends next week, and the government data will be released in the last week of July.  I predict that Q2 data will be heavily manipulated in two ways: (1) manipulation of import data via the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles; and (2) the intentional use of a lower inflation rate than currently exists in all goods.   My best guess on the fake BEA numbers is a +0.2 to +0.5% positive GDP, thereby barely avoiding the technical definition of a recession.

That said, the CNBC article outlines a very bad scenario for retailers, as the consumer spending contraction hits their profit and loss statements.

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To say the recent remarks from German Economic and Climate Minister Robert Habeck showcase the stupidity of the western sanctions would be an understatement.  In a broad energy policy announcement to the German people, Minister Habeck has announced that natural gas is now urgently being stored and built up in order to survive next winter.

Additionally, the German parliament is being called into emergency session to re-write climate laws allowing coal-fired electricity power plants to be brought back on-line.  Essentially, years of German renewable energy investments and initiatives are now being reversed in order to maintain the commitment to NATO sanctions against Russia.

You can read the full translated remarks HERE.  Some of the more stunning excerpts are below.

GERMANY – Minister Robert Habeck […] “The situation on the gas market has deteriorated in recent days. The missing quantities can still be replaced, and the gas storage tanks are still being filled, albeit at high prices. Security of supply is currently guaranteed. But the situation is serious. We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to reduce gas consumption. 

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U.S. inflation was/is driven by supply side impacts as a result of policy (Build Back Better).  The U.S. recession was/is now driven by demand side impacts that are the result of increased supply side costs.  This is the natural economic truth being denied by all levels of political leadership.

Joe Biden policy makers, specifically the U.S. treasury secretary and the federal reserve chairman, have claimed -falsely- that current inflation was/is being driven by demand. In essence, and ironically, their position means consumers are to blame for high prices.  This has been their story and they have stuck to it.  However, remember monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy.  Monetary policy cannot impact the supply side, that aspect is led by Joe Biden policy.

The Federal reserve, having denied (pretended) the supply side causation, has effectively raised interest rates (0.75%) into an economic environment where consumer demand was already contracting.  CTH has been asserting this fundamental position all year.   Here is the evidence:

US Manufacturing PMI fell dramatically to 52.4 in June 2022 from 57 in May.  This drop is well below the market and economic expectations of 56, and now points to the slowest growth and steepest drop in factory activity in almost two years.  Contractions in output and new orders are pushing the index down.

Production and new sales declined for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in mid-2020 driven by weak consumer demand.  Inflation and a drop in wholesale and retail purchases have lowered purchase orders.  The gears inside the economy are slowing to a halt.

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Yes, inflation is global; mostly.  That’s because all of the western governments and their central banks followed the exact same pandemic lockdown & spending instructions from the World Economic Forum.

The plan -as outlined publicly, was for government leaders to lockdown the economic activity (supply side), then spend to subsidize and fill the losses in economic activity (demand side), then reopen the economies using the Build Back Better agenda as a reset moving the underlying energy economy away from fossil fuels.

This was the collective plan, and they all followed the exact same playbook.  This is the origin of inflation.  The BBB plan disrupted the supply side, then triggered a reopening of the demand side while the supply remained scarce.  Simultaneous to the reopening, all former energy development processes were no longer supported by investment or policy.

In the aftermath, the energy sector was fractured and combined with higher costs for the production of all goods, that’s what is continuing this upward inflation spiral.

CANADA – Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 7.7% in May, the highest since January 1983, on gasoline prices, as well as services like hotels and restaurants, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.  Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the annual rate to rise to 7.4% in May from 6.8% in April. (read more)

U.K. – Soaring food prices pushed British consumer price inflation to a 40-year high of 9.1% last month, the highest rate out of the Group of Seven countries and one which underlines the severity of the country’s cost-of-living crunch.

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… And if they don’t, they are Russian sympathizers.

Delivering remarks from the stage built next to the White House, earlier today Joe Biden demanded that congress and states suspend gasoline taxes for 90-days in order to offset the massive price increases his energy policy has created. {Transcript Here} Additionally, Biden says any political opposition to his demand means his opponents support Russia:

“for all those Republicans in Congress criticizing me today for high gas prices in America, are you now saying we were wrong to support Ukraine?  Are you saying we were wrong to stand up to Putin?  Are you saying that we would rather have lower gas prices in America and Putin’s iron fist in Europe?  I don’t believe that.” {Direct Rumble Link}

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It will be worth watching how California Governor Gavin Newsom responds to this instruction.  California has the largest gasoline taxes in the nation and uses them to fund the majority of their left-wing policies.

Full video and transcript below.

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The conflict of interest is simply off-the-proverbial charts here.   Tom Donilon is a deep DC swamp operator and has been for his entire career.  Donilon is connected to every tentacle of the Obama and Biden administrations.  Donilon is also the Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute.

We have written about the conflicts {Go Deep Here} and {Go Deep Here}, but this move by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is stunningly fraught with serious conflicts of interest.

Tom Donilon’s literal job description at Blackrock is to “leverage the firm’s expertise and generate proprietary research to provide insights on the global economy, markets, geopolitics and long-term asset allocation,” and the State Dept has just appointed him as Co-Chair of the U.S. foreign policy advisory board.

Specifically, the Biden administration has just put Blackrock Investment Institute Chairman Tom Donilon in charge of U.S-China policy.

How in the proverbial hell can this be permitted?  That’s way beyond a rhetorical question.   The Dept of State has selected a team of Wall Street control agents to guide global U.S. policy.

(STATE DEPT) – Today, Secretary Blinken announced his selections for the U.S. Department of State’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board.

Since its establishment in 2011, the Board has provided independent advice on the conduct of U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy, consistent with each Secretary of State and administration’s evolving priorities for it.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted the obvious in his senate testimony today when asked about U.S. inflation.  However, his testimony directly contradicts the White House claims.

Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), member of the Senate Banking Committee, walked through the inflation timeline and asked Chairman Powell about the cause of the escalated inflation in 2021.  Powell admitted the massive rise in inflation had nothing to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. WATCH (02:16 Prompted):

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Reuters has an interesting, albeit sad article, highlighting the state of the U.S. and global economy.  According to the article, many college graduates this year are finding their recent job offers rescinded as the landscape for employment quickly evaporates.

The article focuses on the tech sector with various platform companies yanking the jobs.  Twitter, Meta (Facebook), Lyft and Uber are all mentioned as downsizing, freezing current employment and/or leaving positions unfilled.

(Reuters) – […] In what appears to be a counter trend to the Great Resignation of 2022, when legions quit for new jobs, some tech job-seekers now face cost cuts and hiring freezes amid four-decade-high inflation, a war raging in Ukraine and the ongoing pandemic.

In the case of those who were poised to join Twitter, the whims of billionaire Elon Musk have also caused stress. Musk has agreed to buy Twitter for $44 billion, but his recent tweets have raised questions about when and if the acquisition will be completed. 

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There are going to be multiple negative economic indicators surfacing in the next 60 days as the first wave signals of a deep and prolonged recession begin to reach shore.  Think of it like an economic meteor that hit the mid-Atlantic while only a few people were tracking its inbound trajectory and prepared for what was likely.

We are not likely to see much good economic news, but on the positive side, most readers are prepared.   Again, I will repeat… If you did not purchase a home this year, you are already ahead financially.

Housing sales are dropping fast, but housing values are, on a regional basis, holding steady – for now.  However, the banks and lending institutions are preparing for those values, and the contained equity, to drop and disappear precipitously.

Today Bloomberg is reporting that JPMorgan Chase is shifting around 1,000 employees in the mortgage side of finance with some being laid-off and others being reassigned to different parts of the bank and financial services.   This should not come as a surprise, but it does align with other less noticeable moves in the banking and home loan sector.

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