U.S. inflation was/is driven by supply side impacts as a result of policy (Build Back Better). The U.S. recession was/is now driven by demand side impacts that are the result of increased supply side costs. This is the natural economic truth being denied by all levels of political leadership.
Joe Biden policy makers, specifically the U.S. treasury secretary and the federal reserve chairman, have claimed -falsely- that current inflation was/is being driven by demand. In essence, and ironically, their position means consumers are to blame for high prices. This has been their story and they have stuck to it. However, remember monetary policy can only impact the demand side of the economy. Monetary policy cannot impact the supply side, that aspect is led by Joe Biden policy.
The Federal reserve, having denied (pretended) the supply side causation, has effectively raised interest rates (0.75%) into an economic environment where consumer demand was already contracting. CTH has been asserting this fundamental position all year. Here is the evidence:
US Manufacturing PMI fell dramatically to 52.4 in June 2022 from 57 in May. This drop is well below the market and economic expectations of 56, and now points to the slowest growth and steepest drop in factory activity in almost two years. Contractions in output and new orders are pushing the index down.
Production and new sales declined for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in mid-2020 driven by weak consumer demand. Inflation and a drop in wholesale and retail purchases have lowered purchase orders. The gears inside the economy are slowing to a halt.
Look at the PMI trendline and you can clearly see what we have been discussing on these pages since March of 2021. Consumer demand has been dropping in direct proportion to the dramatic rise in inflation (consumer prices).
At the exact moment that U.S. inflation began spiking in housing, energy, fuel and food, consumer demand for non-essential purchases, durable goods, started dropping. This is a natural outcome that mirrors your own experience in checkbook economics.
When food, fuel and energy cost you more, you stop buying stuff and start prioritizing.
Following the path of the “build back better” agenda, the U.S. version called “Green New Deal,” meant the Biden administration had to continue denying that any demand side contraction was taking place. However, it is clear from the indexes under the control of purchasing managers that orders for factory goods have been dropping.
The same is true on the services side of the PMI. Demand for services are being prioritized, and demand for non-essential services are dropping.
The U.S. economy is contracting. Denial abounds.
FXStreet – The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI plunged to 52.4 (flash) in June from 57 in May, missing the market expectation of 56 by a wide margin. This report revealed that the business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a much weaker pace in early June than it did in May.
Further details of the publication revealed that the Composite PMI declined to 51.2 from 53.6, compared to analysts’ estimate of 53.7.
Commenting on the data, “the pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. (more)
The White House will blame Russia.
I always thought ” Atlas Shrugged ” would remain more of an abstract lesson , not prologue.
I think the problem is that there is nowhere near enough shrugging going on.
Shoulda started with shrugging off the disgusting masks.
100% That was the easiest, least we could have done. Said it right from the start. If we didn’t have the “courage” to do that, how can we ever get anything changed?
Perhaps we needed that lesson. It worked for many.
I hate him, and all those who support him. Can’t say anymore than that.
Mark Twain says to not say anything unless you have something nice to say.
I look forward to enjoying reading his obituary.
Them not “him”. We can’t allow them to use the joebama puppet for the focus of our ire. That was their plan all along. They think when we get rid of that corrupt idiot we’ll return to “normal”. The Democrat party must be torn out root and stem if we are to return to our beloved free republic.
Stocked up on food? Look for drastic fire sale prices on select “durable goods” as suppliers slash inventory, and “stock up” on so called “durable goods” that you A) know you want/need B) Know, despite the name, DO wear out, and C) are essential, or important in your/families quality if life.
Once you are stocked in food and these durables, invest in AMMO, the ultimate hedge and currency.
Don’t forget to add alcohol (as in whiskey), peroxide, antiseptic alcohol, etc. to your list. If things get really bad, you can barter bottles of whiskey for other things, use as an antiseptic, drink it or make molotov cocktails with it.
Hadn’t thought of Molotov cocktails, Joyce. Good thinking there, girl. One never knows.
Remember “Glass” bottles, just saying. Plastic just bounces.
Good reminderNinja7
Always a treat to read your posts/thoughts Bet. Cheers friend
Betsy, like the way you think. How’s that flag coming?
Vinegar is still pretty cheap and super useful.
Yes, and some brands still come in glass bottles which can be repurposed as mentioned by other posters, heh.
yup ammo can still be found at reasonable prices if one looks hard enough
Bimart has had both 9mm and 223s the last time I was in there. It’s hit & miss with stock & limited to 2 boxes of any one type of ammo, but buying on successive days until their stock is gone doesn’t seem to be a problem
Yep, the C&R market is currently flooded with eastern bloc surplus for both rifles and machine guns at competitive pricing. Still, Hitler’s buzz saw can go through a breathtaking amount of 8mm, as one example. Think the gun costs a lot? Try feeding it ammo for a day of hard use in real action. Yowza.
I use Ammoseek to compile surplus (and some new) data from suppliers and importers. So far it’s worked pretty good. Most of my interest is in WW1/2 and the inter-war period, not really new stuff.
I don’t doubt deals on newer stuff are out there too. It pays to use commonly-sold stuff, today the .223/5.56mm. Also, in adverse action, using such makes it easier/more productive to strip dead and wounded for rearming. Nothing goes to waste.
Top item to look for: diesel generator
Diesel oil getting scarce, companies that supply additives declaring force majeure. Insider gives 4 to 8 weeks before it becomes unavailable. Mike Adams has been researching this; he hasn’t found anyone else reporting on it. Sounds credible and serious.
DEF and dumb additive.
BASF doesn’t have a problem producing it but Jo Ding Dong will find a way to cobble up distribution.
My old oil burners can run a mix of filtered waste oil and diesel fuel in a pinch. That’s part of why I kept the old style mechanical injection diesels for the trucks and tractor.
Still, managing fuel supply is an important consideration, if not due to shortage, then due to force majeure.
I learned that during the ’96 blackout. It caught me in the lanes at the race track a couple hundred miles from home and, if not for my habit of filling the truck as last stop before the track I wouldn’t have made it home. Why? No power to run the fuel pumps at the stations.
Depending on circumstances, one might find a diesel tractor a more versatile purchase. I’ve had diesel gensets, 10Kw on the service truck and 50Kw for the shop, and they are wonderful and very reliable.
My main complaint was the high cap cost and maintenance. Not bad for business but even then I finally sold them after about 15 years of minimal use. The diesel I use the most? Kubota tractor. It has a 1200rpm PTO and I built a frame to run a pressure pump at 3600 rpm and the same frame can accept a generator head and the engine will provide enough PTO HP to run 10Kw without issue. Plus it’s mobile, can pretty much go anywhere a 4WD tractor can go.
If serious about a diesel generator, in these times I’d go with a minimum of what I had for the big genset, a 550 gallon tank. Fuel burn on the 10Kw was about a gallon an hour so easy to do the math. These days I keep a 55 gallon drum in stock and have another 40-60 gallons in the trucks and tractor. Minimal stock but one can be miserly if necessary.
You never want to barter bullets! Never barter anything that could be used against you.
Seeds are the best currency. If they are too lazy to sow them, let them starve!
My bell peppers are the size of silver dollars
I’m a terrible gardener
Practice makes perfect
Don’t give up.
Yep, learning or re-learning takes time and practice. I rigged up a irrigation system that takes the coastal fog that drips from the redwoods onto the porch awning and runs through the rain gutter and drip waters the garden plants in summer. I container garden due to the native soil (beach sand!) and critters. Practice, practice, don’t be afraid to fail.
I too am trying containers for the first time and for the same reason (critters – enough rabbits for a Bugs Bunny musical with a supporting cast of squirrels and chipmunks who eat everything).
My bell peppers are tiny too, but the two types of lettuce are already making my salads and sandwiches for the season. The redskin potato pot is exploding – just getting its first flowers – who knew it was such a pretty plant? I’ll be doing that every year from now on, and probably just put the peppers in a deeper container.
Good advice on seeds, thanks, and apparently some sellers accept SNAP for payment for them too since they’re for growing one’s own food. Perfect for low income seniors and, as you suggested, great barter material.
Showing my ignorance here. How long do seeds last and how do you store them to maximize longevity?
Just got back from local Wally World, their cheap macaroni and cheese, same size box, has shrunk in weight by 1 and 3/4 ounces. And gone up 10 cents per box.
I am following the taste choices of the grand kids, what can I say other than yes, stock up, bigly and quickly!
All my rice got bugs, so much for stocking up
Bummer
i use the snap lock plastic tubs.
they work well
Yep, bug eggs are often in grains and rice, even ground flour, so freezing the item for a few days, longer for bigger bags, usually kills them, then store in air-tight container. Brown rice doesn’t seem to last as long as other kinds of rice IME.
The entire purpose of refining foods was to make them last. Unrefined foods (brown rice is the least refined, whole grain bread as well) all spoil more quickly. They are more nutritious, but require a lot of planning to use up before that.
It’s built in protein.
Send it to Canada… their Socks Boy seems to like eating bugs.
I’ve got 40 LBs of rice, 40 LBs of beans in crates.
20 lbs of flour, 10 lbs of coffee
Ill always need more ammo, and booze
cuz I go through it fast
I am actually optimistic on the prospect of vehicles getting much cheaper as a result. My youngest daughter desperately needs a more reliable one and has been putting it off at my insistence as long as possible. If I can actually find a decent deal on something I want in the next year or so, she will get mine which at 12 years old recently broke the 100k mark and still has another 100k+ left in it or more as it is meticulously maintained. But then I do love my car. I might have to just help her get a decent one that suits her better. Then I would keep it forever as a fallback old fashioned gas powered high performance sport coupe that perhaps my grandson could enjoy driving one day as long as he avoids the gleaming alloy headers. I always have plenty of food, water, and ammo especially going into tropical storm season.
There is no way people in the purchasing and supply chain business were not aware of this.
There is no way that people who compile economic forecasts don’t know who to ask about things like this.
There are no surprises when it comes to economics. There is data everywhere to tell you what is coming down the road.
We live in a world of deliberate lies.
Going back to my post yesterday where the land of plenty has gone to empty shelves. I am thinking those peeps in purchasing and supply chains are realizing fully stocked shelves involve a bit of losss as products ‘expire’ and are theoretically removed from the shelves and not being put in grocery carts.
We all know how business likes its metrics….am not a business person but know more than some and a lot less than others. From what I do know, they research to predict needs. Just like hospitals can predict patient care needs for nursing care requirements..10 years ago, hospitals were pretty accurate. So I would assume other businesses are, too.
Products that expire are not producing profits. The same about durable goods sitting in warehouses.
Durable goods have a sketchy lifespan…from 3-5 years, I think. Five being generous.
Granted small sample but I use the living daylights out of Amazon for SNAP purchases, particularly deals and price mistakes, and am consistently surprised at the far-in-the-future date codes on stuff.
Much of my current inventory has date codes into late ’23 to mid ’24. This isn’t prepper food, just regular canned and dry goods like one normally buys at the store.
I label the cases with their date code and keep track of the stock on a clipboard by the entrance to the outbuilding things are stored in. I’ve used such goods far beyond their labeled codes but it’s heartening to see orders not being filled with almost out of code goods.
It appears Oregon will continue emergency SNAP payments at least through August and that’s a big bump for those of us with only modest food supplements so am using it to stock up on staples.
“In a universal age of (liberal) deception, speaking truth is a revolutionary act” George Orwell
We know it’s all a lie, not only because everything that comes from this illegitimate “administration” has been fake and/or a lie, but those of us who have been paying attention have been stocking up.
I started stocking up well over a year ago, and now have several months supply of frozen and canned foods, and if and when that runs out, a 6 month supply of dehydrated food. In addition to that, my garden is doing fabulously well, thank you very much!
I went to the grocery store today and spent a total of $27.37; bought some cheese (that I don’t know how to make for myself), milk, macaroni (even though I have a good supply of pasta, I don’t want to dig into it just yet), and additional cans of beans and vegetables to add to my storehouse.
I’m not buying much because I don’t NEED much right now!
Below is a video on making your own cheese from whole milk and a great website for how people lived and were more self-reliant before fossil fuels were discovered.
Joyce, I have raided my Ramen Noodles stock.
The Federal Reserve has no control over supply chain issues, lockdowns, Sanctions, etc. Even our own Government borrowing endlessly.
The Fed is Trapped, they know it.
I cannot control my neighbors spending habits, rules of his house or who they like or dislike, that’s out of my control.
I have a letter from convicted felon & liar former Democrat Senator Robert Torricelli telling me that the Federal Reserve is a branch of government. Tragilarious
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0bama so proud!
This is disinformation.
The WH says the economy is doing great.
This is good news, it means that something left in the scope of the free market still exists.
Now let’s speed this decline up some more.
https://rumble.com/v19efwj-powell-says-inflation-was-high-before-ukraine-invasion.html
And there goes Bag ‘o Bones Biden…right under the proverbial bus.
If you watched Elizabeth Warren, she was trying to rest blame on the Fed. This is how stupid these politicians are.
Its equivalent to my neighbor spending himself into oblivion, creating crappie house rules, hating on other neighbors and blaming me for their own stupidity.
Here ya go…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/economy/jerome-powell-inflation-senate-hearing/index.html
Thank you for that. I’ll save it for after dinner… can’t afford the indigestion😉
She is a rabid Marxist, a shrew, a hypocrite, a know it all loud mouth…as all women Dems are. I expect no less from her so was not surprised. She was true to type.
And I am dreadfully sorry you have a neighbour like that. Good neighbours are more than the price of rubies. If we ever thought of moving (which we don’t), we’d really have to think hard as we have two good neighbours either side. These days on that alone, it’s not worth the risk.
Marxist for thee not for me
I just had a bearing manufacturer quote me a 8 month lead time on a pair of 3-15/16 bore pillow block units. That’s February 2023 people. This is worse than most, but others are getting this way too. If they can’t fix the equipment, they can’t make anything!
Grey Eagle: 8 months for one pair? Aren’t these stock items?
Just because they are in the catalog does not mean that they are in stock.
As an old maintenance guy, I can say for certain that that is an impossible lead time. There are alternatives, none of them are good and most are very expensive. Many operations have used JIT suppliers for industrial maintenance supplies because they were reliable. Now, many of these same people are thinking that maybe they should have inventoried spare parts.
Hint: There are alternative sources. May be time to take some risks. I am an eBay seller and there are many like me that have random parts for sale. All I have are 2-1/2. Other sellers might have something to get you through a pinch. I did a search and found several. May not be exact fits but a good maintenance guy might make them fit. Imperfect solution for a serious problem.
I did enlist the assistance of another bearing manufacturer and with the components, I can get my customer what they need….but this time. What about the next one?
That’s the whole point!
@Grey Eagle – I feel your pain, which is part of why I closed my machine shop back in 2020 and kept the 3+ decades of inventory. I was one of those people who stocked inventory for customers; dumb these days but I was old fashioned.
Now I’m selective about who I offer solutions to and who I choose to barter or sell raw materials to. In these times people aren’t always what they present themselves to be. Sad that the country has come to this.
Pillow block ID’s, even though hardened, can be machined with ceramic tooling or use of a tool post grinder. I’d have to look at the bearing book for specs but 3 7/8″ would likely work, or use 4″ and sleeve .030″ wall.
Probably less than an hour on the lathe for a pair and back in service, presuming the other sizes are available. I never used anything over 2″ in the shop, mostly for ag implement and conveyor drives. Good luck!
That explains the sudden drop in scrap prices. Manufacturing demand drives scrap prices.
I know two men who made it their hobby to pick up scrap. They stopped a few months ago. Not worth it anymore.
I still collect, but now it is collect and hold.
Depends on the definition of ‘scrap’ and what it is…..
What’s a foot long chunk of 6″ titanium worth? 8″ of 6″x 1/2″ wall naval bronze? 10′ stick of 2″ induction hardened chromerod? Others might view such as scrap. I view such inventory as great barter material.
Heck, my last inventory haul out of California was fueled by bricks. That’s right, clay bricks. It takes about 500 bricks now to pay for enough diesel to move a load. I’ve still got a few thousand left. Then there’s wood. What do you need? I’ve got plenty of ‘scrap’. Need 20′ x 2 x 8 heart redwood? In stock. Pressure treated? Not that new stuff but the old cancer inducing stuff that lasts forever. Mmm, penta and chromated copper arsenate.
Scrap. Love it. I built the outbuilding to store all the food and inventory out of scrap. Scrap wood, scrap steel, scrap aluminum. The windows are repurposed scrap aluminum frame sliding doors from a remodel. Nothing goes to waste.
I was a manufacturer for a bit over 30 years. Now I manage scrap. Always something to do.
What you call scrap, I call inventory. Scrap is that stuff that is in its last stage before grinding up or meltdown.
The truly sad part is the RINOS are 100% in support of this destruction of America.
I’m surprised they don’t wear Build Back Better pins on their lapel
The single biggest bunch of frauds this country has ever seen.
They are storing riches in Hell.
The RNC does not want mainstream middle class Americans. They were originally the party of Wall Street but since the Demonrats moved so far left, the RNC absorbed us or more than likely, absorbed our money in the form of donations until we wizened up.
Either way, its one fluster cluck. And the lack of respect from both parties, is pitiful.
Sooner or later, the left will wake up to the horror they voted for, unfortunately it will probably be later. “ANYONE BUT TRUMP!”, was their battle cry. They just didnt pay attention to the men behind the curtain.
One thing is certain, and unless you have massive tangible assets, everyone will be screwed equally.
Hopefully they’ll wake up trapped inside of a raging dumpster fire of their making, literally.
Their pride will never allow them to wake up.
Pretending not to know something does not change the truth.
The Category +5 sideways shit-storm that is going to hit this country has not even made landfall yet.
The one lesson I learned watching the monthly and quarterly summaries on Investment Company Websites over the past 3 years is WATCH the Performance of the 11 US Market Economic Sectors.
The Sectors have consistently pointed directly to the; unemployment trend, lower wages, inflation, recession, NO US IPO’s, drop in GDP oriented manufacturing, focus of consumers of subsistence over discretionary, et al.
It is the one of the very few remaining indices the Whales cannot manipulate to sucker people in to make money off the those who chase the market or headline driven metrics.
No problem print a couple of trillion we’ll bounce back for a few months until that runs out.
Yep, with a non-stop printing press of debt not even wholesale work stoppage and cessation of tax payments would slow them down much, at least until their debt rating induced their demise.
We could still crash the financial industry to force their hand. Many would suffer and plenty would die in the subsequent war but IMO it’s a necessary cleansing of the evil among us. Money is a potent weapon if used properly. PDJT knew how potent it could be and how to wield it like a surgeon wields a scalpel. Now it’s our turn.
Our county here in Mississippi is primarily furniture manufacturing. Two of the largest here in town are going to be laying off 2200 employees due to the downturn in demand and supply chain issues. Being a rural county and a poor county a lot of people will be hurt badly.
Wry sad
All the extra cash people would have had from working, has ultimately been diverted to higher taxes (the govt’ vig based off of Bidenflation) and fuel costs. Biden has cooked the Golden Goose at a record clip. Don’t worry folks he’s not done yet! (that’s the scary part)
So, I’m having a local handyman enclose my carport. Lumber is high, doors are costly, but I’m counting it as supporting the local economy. It will only get more expensive by next year and it will be protection for my house.
Times are going to get really bad, maybe not in the rural areas or small towns, but I wouldn’t want to be in a big city when the fall prices hit the market.
Consensus outside the O’biden regime and MSM is recession alarm bells blaring.
When you have traitor puppets owned by China & the CFR this is what you get
“President Trump is also in favor of leaving the WTO, which he thinks has done a poor job at policing China and has given them unfair advantages in terms of trade as it relates to Western competitors. For example, when China entered the WTO, it was not subject to the same labor and environmental rules that governed much of Europe and the U.S. The labor and environmental arbitrage has been a boon for China for decades.”
Nancy Pelosi Just (2020)Protected The WTO From Trump, Other Democrats
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/06/25/nancy-pelosi-just-protected-the-wto-from-trump-other-democrats/?sh=7774cf875684
Do the numbers include lost food manufacturing as well? Seems like the number should be even lower. This is a serious series of coincidences.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/interactive-map-details-destruction-numerous-us-food-manufacturing-plants-compares-us-incidents-global-trends/
We cut Netflixx x. Save enough money to buy gas and drive an hour a week searching for Baby Formula.
The kids are OK eating cereal with a fork and save some milk for the next kid.
Road kill Gumbo with possum is better than expected.
For sports we are organizing an event like NASCAR/soap box derby with our friends under the bridge using Walmart shopping carts.
Accelerationism is a thing because of the policies continued by corrupt, traitorous
politicians and corps.
If you can see the roller coaster is going down,
its way easier to be ready for the bottom.
Signs of stagflation include: Falling or stagnant GDP, falling retail sales, falling PMI (manufacturing and services), falling or stagnant wages, declining stock markets, etc. When these circumstances are coupled to the loss of buying power in a currency and rising prices in most goods and utilities, then you have stagflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-stagflation-and-why-has-establishment-been-denial-about-it
I use a simple metric, since I was working my way through college during the Carter administration when we had fuel shortages and high inflation. Back then, one hour of pre-tax wages as an apprentice carpenter at a cottonseed plant bought 20 gallons of diesel. A summer’s worth of work paid for the entire two semesters and books at university plus spending money.
Right now, same area of California, a young guy like that would have to earn, pre-tax, a bit over 120.00 per hour wage to buy the same amount of diesel. Never mind what college costs now.
It doesn’t have to be rocket science. Even a grunt blue collar guy can figure it out. Pocket protector optional.
Too much inventory, no sales coming?
I need a new dishwasher.
I’ve got a late model working pull. Bet I couldn’t give it away. Got it for free from a friend whose wife didn’t like ‘white’ in their new beach house and needed the latest look. Thing doesn’t even look like it’s been used. Still, people will wait for months to melt that credit card at the box store. God bless them. I envy their liquidity.
I keep waiting for the current dishwasher to die. It turns 54 this year. Hobart, made in good ole USA. The working pull has been sitting in the office for about seven years now waiting for the old Hobart to die.
At my new place I went simple, no dishwasher. Well, there is a dishwasher, me.
Best wishes in your search and keeping the economy alive 🙂
At my house, I like to say, “I consider ‘dishwasher’ to be a dirty word. I much prefer the term ‘dinner guest’ ” just to watch the expressions
Mine is a Maytag from Home Depot…. paid 1700 for it in 2010.
WAKE UP PEOPLE!!! THIS ADMINISTRATION IS KILLING THE AMERICAN DREAM!!! BIGGEST F-UP EVER TO THIS COUNTRY!! KICK ALL THESE DEMONIC BACK STABBERS OUT OF OUR GOVERNMENT!! GO VOTE IN NOVEMBER BECAUSE IF YOU DON’T, SAY GOODBYE TO EVERYTHING YOU’VE WORK HARD FOR!! THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE EVERYTHING TILL WE DONT HAVE A PENNY TO SAVE!!!!
I have long shopped early in the a.m. for items about to reach their “use/best buy date” and my local grocery store has had more meats and dairy products than I have ever seen. I Crossed my mind that here locally people are not able to buy as much but not sure what it may indicate, just trying to take advantage as best I can and keep my freezer and pantry fully stocked.
And we still have “economists” trying to determine if we are in a recession. Lol.
Who pays these people to lie?
Bastards!