Housing starts (and permits) have been a long-term key performance indicator for the economic stability and strength of Main Street USA for generations. Across all key metrics, the economics of middle-class America is defined by confidence in housing. A strong housing market reflects worker/purchaser confidence in their economic position.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports today that U.S. housing starts and permits has reached a 12-year-high. [data here] This is a key point because it cuts to the heart of the difference between a thriving Main Street economy and the disconnect surrounding issues with Wall Street (multinational) financial markets.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in August as both single- and multi-family housing construction accelerated, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were finally providing a boost to the struggling housing market.

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This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.

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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
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Against the backdrop of Iranian attacks on Saudi oil fields, earlier today President Trump delivered remarks with Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khaifa of Bahrain in the oval office; and held an impromptu press conference. [Video and Transcript below]

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[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much. It’s a great honor to be with the Crown Prince of Bahrain. He is a friend of mine, and the country is a friend of ours. We’re always going to be with them, and I know they’re always going to be with us. We have a tremendous relationship militarily, but we have also a tremendous economic relationship — trade. And we’re going to be discussing all of those things. We’ll certainly be discussing what took place over the last two days in Saudi Arabia.
CROWN PRINCE SALMAN: Absolutely.
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The dance with the dragon is a complex geopolitical relationship between two large economies. China’s view within the dynamic is shaped by their own internal ideology and outlook.  The panda mask dynamic was/is strategic and has served them well for decades; but now President Trump -while engaging a structural confrontation- has used the panda strategy against Beiing’s interests.  China is flummoxed.

Each of President Trump’s trade team members have a specific role; each member also has a specific opponent within the dance:
♦Peter Navarro is the blue-collar hawk. He focuses on the the administration’s Wall Street adversaries; and the U.S. multinationals -American companies- who have aligned their interests with Beijing.  Navarro’s focus is internal to U.S. interests.  Navarro confronts  U.S. corporations, Wall Street interests, who are working against Main Street.
♦Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin carries the economic financial weapons (represents the dollar), and he faces toward global adversaries (IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank etc.) who have also aligned their interests with Beijing and the status quo.
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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy appears on Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo to discuss several ongoing political issues.
In the first two-thirds of the interview Leader McCarthy discusses Iran attacking the Saudi oil facility, and the ramifications therein. Speaker Nancy Pelosi holding back the USMCA hoping to get past the Canadian election; and the current field of 2020 democrat candidates. McCarthy holds the opinion that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democrat candidate for President.
In the last third of the interview (@11:15) McCarthy discusses the upcoming IG report on FISA abuse.  McCarthy believes: Andrew McCabe will be indicted; the IG report will identify culpability for James Comey, and the construct of a soft coup will be highlighted.

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This is funny in so many ways; especially for CTH readers who have a far better-than-ordinary understanding of the big picture Trump goals around China.
(1) CNBC tweeted this story last night (note the date/time). (2) It is written exclusively from the perspective of the Goldman Sachs analysts who represent the U.S. multinational position. (3) However, the article was actually written on May 12, 13, 2019.

What is funny about CNBC pushing this story, NOW, is how the claims within the CNBC story can be fact checked; and their predictions are, well, absurd (especially in hindsight).   Keep in mind this was written in May, and tweeted last night for some reason:

(Via CNBC) “Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.

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The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

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In a quiet admission of food dependency, China purchased 600,000 tonnes of soybeans yesterday (link), and simultaneously announced that U.S. pork and soybean imports would be exempt from further tariff increases.
The surface message Beijing is selling, surrounds their magnanimous panda narrative of reaching out to diminish trade friction.  However, below the surface everyone knows China cannot feed itself,and if food prices keep rising they could likely have growing unrest.

Beijing’s decision to not enhance tariffs of pork and soybeans is very self serving; particularly because China owns Smithfield foods, the largest producer of U.S. pork.  In essence China has lessened tariffs against their own company.

(SCMP) China has announced that it will exclude imports of US soybeans, pork and other farm goods from additional trade war tariffs, opening the door for significant purchases of agricultural products.
The official Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday that China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce made the exemption in response to the US’ decision of postpone an increase in the tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese goods from October 1 to October 15.

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During an interview with Fox Business Maria Bartiromo White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro outliness how the USPS, the postal system, has been heavily subsidizing “incoming mail of a number of countries to the tune of hundreds of million dollars a year.”  Navarro notes he is meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the State Department at the Blair House in Washington, D.C., to work on changes to the current mail system.
Additionally, Navarro explained that he will be traveling to Geneva, Switzerland, on Sept. 23 for a third “Extraordinary Congress” and there will be two issues/options on the ballot: (1) allows all countries in the postal union to self-declare rates, ending a terminal dues system that costs countries to subsidize incoming mail. (2) A “multispeed approach,” allowing the U.S. to self-declare rates immediately.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday an indefinite supply of fresh asset purchases and deeper cuts to interest rates, into negative territory, as it tries to prop up the ailing euro zone economy.  These are EU financial counter-measures to the geopolitical trade realignment triggered by U.S. President Trump.
The EU is driving down the value of their currency in an effort to help prop-up the French and German economies that are dependent on exports.  In essence, the financial and economic positions of the EU and China are connected.  The more pressure the U.S. (Trump administration) puts on China, the less China can purchase from the EU.
With that as the backdrop, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds an impromptu press conference outside the White House on China trade, Huawei and the bond market.

 

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