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Iran Conflict – Oil Disruption Hits Key BRICS Members Hard

Consider the severe economic body blows to China in the past 14 months.

♦ First blow, the Trump tariffs hit Beijing hardest. ♦ Second blow, the Beijing tentacle on the Panama Canal is severed.  ♦ Third blow, global tariff threats changed the risk dynamic for southeast Asia countries who acted as transnational shippers for China. ♦ Fourth blow, cheap sanctioned oil from Venezuela was cut-off. ♦ Now, the fifth blow; cheap, sanctioned Iranian oil is disrupted.

As noted by Politico: Following USA military strikes, “ships have begun to avoid the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran — a critical shipping lane for Gulf nations to export oil to Asia. China in 2025 received about half of its imported oil from the six Gulf countries that rely on the strait. Other large crude oil producers in the region — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates — transport almost all their crude exports through the geographic bottleneck.

[SOURCE]

It’s not just a factor of oil flow, but also the price that China will ultimately end up having to pay.  Beijing was buying oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia at steep discounts because their purchases were skirting western sanctions.

With Iranian oil production now no longer a market option, China will seek to replace their needs with more Russian alternative. However, that diversion means the oil India was purchasing from Russia will come at a higher price, and the refined final product that was exported by India will arrive to the European Union carrying an additional cost.

Simultaneously, Vladimir Putin was asked about Russia’s lack of military support to Iran in response to the U.S. military action, to wit the Russian president noted the technical terms of their joint military agreements did not include Russia’s immediate involvement.  In shorthand, Russia is busy and is not getting involved.

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EU Schedules Permanent Ban on Russian Import Oil for Three Days After Hungarian Election

I guess we can put this in the open admission file surrounding the all-out effort by the European Union to defeat Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

According to a leaked document received by Reuters, the European Union is scheduled to permanently ban all EU nations from importing Russian oil.  They have scheduled the ban to trigger on April 15th, three days after the Hungarian election.

BRUSSELS, Feb 24 (Reuters) – The European Commission will submit a legal proposal to permanently ban Russian oil imports on April 15, three days after Hungary’s parliamentary election, according to EU officials and a document seen by Reuters.

Two EU officials told Reuters the timing was designed to prevent the oil ban becoming a major factor in Hungary’s election campaign. Hungary and Slovakia, still reliant on Russian oil imports, are strongly opposed to any ban.

In the April 12 election, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his nationalist Fidesz party are facing the biggest challenge to their hold on power in 16 years.

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Ukraine (EU) Strikes Russian Oil Pumping Station that Transmits Oil into Hungary and Slovakia

The Ukraine military, technically and non-pretendingly accepted as the EU military, has targeted a key oil pumping station in Russia that feeds into the westerly directed oil supply.  However, if you stand back from the western media, what you will notice from this attack is not the target in Russia, but the customers at the end of the pipeline in Europe, mainly Hungary and Slovakia.

[…] Through local stations, including infrastructure around Kaleykino, oil from Tatarstan and neighboring regions feeds into the main pipeline, which runs through the Samara region and continues westward toward Belarus and further to countries in Eastern and Central Europe. […] There were also earlier reports that Ukrainian forces carried out several attacks on Druzhba pipeline infrastructure inside Russia, which at times disrupted Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. {source}

So, what’s going on here?

Well, with the anniversary of the Russian Federation beginning the war into Ukraine, the Europeans who now control the military operations inside Ukraine are targeting European countries who do not align with their bloodlust, specifically Hungary and Slovakia.

Both Hungary and Slovakia are land locked countries without easy access seaports. Because of their geographic locations, they rely on Russian oil and gas for their energy needs.  Hungary and Slovakia have not wanted to expand the war against Russia.  The EU is demanding Hungary and Slovakia agree to expanded war.

The European ‘coalition of the willing’ is now targeting key Russian infrastructure that supplies energy products to European countries who are not in compliance with the EU dictates of war.

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Two-Hour Meeting in Geneva Between U.S., Ukraine and Russia Negotiators Ends with Not much Progress

The U.S. mediating team met with Ukraine and Russia negotiators for the second day in Geneva, Switzerland.  Unfortunately, despite the high praise and customary diplomatic niceties spoken, there was not much progress.

There was, however, a rather remarkable accusation hurled by Russian media about uninvited British officials going to Geneva in order to conduct surveillance of the negotiations. Apparently, this is part of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s efforts to retain maximum involvement and influence.

STEVE WITKOFF – “Today, at President Trump’s direction, the United States moderated a third set of trilateral discussions with Ukraine and Russia. Thank you to the Swiss Confederation for being gracious hosts for today’s meetings.

President Trump’s success in bringing both sides of this war together has brought about meaningful progress, and we are proud to work under his leadership to stop the killing in this terrible conflict. Both parties agreed to update their respective leaders and continue working towards a deal.” (source)

RUSTEM UMEROV (UKRAINE) – “In Geneva, the second day of trilateral negotiations has begun.

Consultations are taking place in working groups by areas within the political and military tracks. We are working on clarifying the parameters and mechanisms of the decisions discussed yesterday.

We are focused on substantive work. We will provide additional information on the results.” (source)

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Secretary Marco Rubio Joint Press Conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban

Secretary Marco Rubio went out of his way in this joint presser to emphasize the personal relationship between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and U.S. President Donald Trump.  Orban is facing a serious election challenge this April and all of the EU/NATO systems are actively trying to create pressure points to remove him.

Secretary Marco Rubio is in Budapest today for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his government to include the signing of a civilian-nuclear cooperation agreement heralded by the Trump administration. Hungary is one of the few voices within the European Union who is pushing back against Brussels efforts to go to war against Russia.

Prime Minister Orban has been very critical of Ukraine, openly stating his opposition to EU membership for the embattled country. In response President Zelenskyy has weaponized Ukraine’s geographical stewardship of oil and gas pipelines to shut down Hungarian energy and drive-up prices. VIDEO:

[Transcript] – MODERATOR: (Via interpreter) Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.  May I extend my most cordial welcome to all of you, and may I extend my most special welcome to His Excellency Mr. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State of the United States of America, at the press conference and signing ceremony organized on the occasion of his visit to Hungary.  Let me also extend my warm welcome to Mr. Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, members of the U.S. and Hungarian delegations, and all our esteemed guests.

At today’s event, the agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Hungary to facilitate cooperation on the civilian nuclear program in Hungary will be signed.  The signatories to the agreement on behalf of the United States of America, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and on behalf of Hungary, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Mr. Peter Szijjarto.

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Secretary of State Rubio Holds Interesting Press Conference with Slovak Prime Minister Fico

Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a different path on his European visit than Brussels wanted to see. After his time at the Munich Security Conference, Rubio headed to Slovakia and Hungary for conversations with the two nations who are not at all in alignment with Brussels leadership on the issue of Ukraine.

UPDATE: Better video and Transcript Added

Rubio speaks very bluntly on the topics that are of key concern to Prime Minister Robert Fico, including the topic of energy which is a major problem for both Slovakia and Hungary right now.  Toward the end of the presser, the very last response by Fico [44:20 of video] is very interesting.

Prime Minister Fico directly claims that Ukraine is purposefully withholding oil and gas from pipelines that travel from Russia through Ukraine, into Slovakia.  Fico notes he is not going to blame either Ukraine or Russia for previously detonations at the oil refinery and transport hub, but he is very sure Ukraine is purposefully withholding energy products from Hungary as blackmail until Hungary changes their position on Ukraine achieving status in the European Union.

You can tell from the way Fico presents the subject and from the prior points of Rubio this hot button issue is why Fico flew to Mar-a-Lago a few weeks ago for a talk with President Trump.  WATCH:

MODERATOR: (Via interpreter) Hello, ladies and gentlemen.  Please, welcome to our press conference after mutual meeting of the Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico and Secretary of State of the U.S. Marco Rubio.  So, Prime Minister, please, you have the word.

PRIME MINISTER FICO: Thank you. (Via interpreter) Dear Secretary of State, dear Marco Rubio, please allow me to welcome you once again – you and your whole delegation – to Bratislava and our office of the Government of the Slovak Republic.  Dear ladies, dear gentlemen, we had a shared, short tete-a-tete meeting with the Secretary of State, and then we had delegations’ discussion when we went into details, where we discussed topics that are the point of our today’s meeting. I’ll try to briefly sum up the conclusions of our discussions, be it in Four Eyes or, let’s say, in our meeting of delegations.

First of all, I deeply appreciate the fact that this visit comes quickly after our meeting in Florida, where I had a chance to speak with the President of the United States Donald Trump with Mr. Rubio being present.  So, it’s a great follow-up and great country, nation.  And after a short while when we met in Florida, we could discuss how much we achieved during those few weeks about topics we discussed.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio Critically Important Speech to Munich Security Conference

Overnight in the USA time zones, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a very important speech at the Munich Security Conference [3:00am ET].  The video is below [prompted] and a FULL transcription will soon follow Added Below:.

This is a critically worded speech that is very important to listen to with great deliberation.  Within his remarks Rubio is telling Europe that we want to remain allied in our interests, but we are no longer going to allow the system of “globalism” to destroy our uniquely American life.

The United States is separating from the madness; this is not up for debate. The only question is whether Europe is too far gone, or whether they will join us.

The euphoria that followed the collapse of the Berlin Wall, “led us to a dangerous delusion.  That we had entered quote the end of history. That every nation would now be a liberal democracy; that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood. That the rules-based global order, an overused term, would now replace the national interest, and that we would now live in a world without borders where everyone became a citizen of the world. This was a foolish idea that ignored both human nature and it ignored the lessons of over 5,000 years of recorded human history, and it has cost us dearly.” 

[Transcript] SECRETARY RUBIO:  “Thank you very much.  We gather here today as members of a historic alliance, an alliance that saved and changed the world.  When this conference began in 1963, it was in a nation – actually, it was on a continent – that was divided against itself.  The line between communism and freedom ran through the heart of Germany.  The first barbed fences of the Berlin Wall had gone up just two years prior.

And just months before that first conference, before our predecessors first met here, here in Munich, the Cuban Missile Crisis had brought the world to the brink of nuclear destruction.  Even as World War II still burned fresh in the memory of Americans and Europeans alike, we found ourselves staring down the barrel of a new global catastrophe – one with the potential for a new kind of destruction, more apocalyptic and final than anything before in the history of mankind.

At the time of that first gathering, Soviet communism was on the march.  Thousands of years of Western civilization hung in the balance.  At that time, victory was far from certain.  But we were driven by a common purpose.  We were unified not just by what we were fighting against; we were unified by what we were fighting for.  And together, Europe and America prevailed and a continent was rebuilt.  Our people prospered.  In time, the East and West blocs were reunited. A civilization was once again made whole. ”

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Warner

In January of 2017 California Senator Dianne Feinstein abdicated her position as Vice-Chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI).  Upon the initiation of a new congress, and two weeks before the inauguration of President Donald Trump, Virginia Senator Mark Warner took the SSCI Vice-Chair seat…. and that’s how things get started.

Amid a concerted effort to resist the incoming administration the Russia Collusion Conspiracy was launched.  Politicians, the U.S. intelligence apparatus and DC beltway media united in common purpose to push a Trump-Russia narrative.

Within the early days of that effort, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence initiated an investigation into Russian interference with the election.  Chairman Richard Burr and Vice-Chair Warner were toasted throughout DC as an example of bipartisan oversight against what House minority leader Nancy Pelosi called a “fraudulent president.”

Sometime in late February/early March 2017 Senator Warner requested a copy of the top secret FISA application used against Carter Page, falsely accusing him of being “an agent of a foreign power.”  Simultaneous to this the FBI was trying to track down the details of dozens of classified intelligence leaks to the media from within the DC system.   FBI Special Agent, Washington DC Field Office, Brian Dugan appears to have been tasked with tracking and identifying intelligence leakers.  Dugan saw an opportunity.

On March 17, 2017, in order to fulfill the request of SSCI Vice-Chairman Mark Warner, Agent Dugan goes to the FISA Court and picks up a copy of the FISA application.  At the time there were only two components: The original application (Oct ’16), and the first renewal (Jan ’17).   The next renewal did not come until April and then again in June.

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President of European Parliament Bans EU Nations from Purchasing Russian Gas Without Paying Commission to Third Party

The headline is the reality of the thing.

In order to make themselves feel better, the European Union is now banning the EU countries from purchasing discounted Russian oil and gas directly. Instead, the EU will force their assembly to purchase Russian oil and gas from India at a premium.  The EU is still buying Russian oil and gas; however, paying more, they believe, will work out better for them in the long-term.  Go figure.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola made the announcement via X:

[SOURCE]

The actual target of this oil and gas ban is the nation of Hungary, who as a landlocked nation is dependent on the gas from Russia.  The EU ban expressly hurts the position of Hungary because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has refused to kneel to the dictates of Brussels.

Prime Minister Orban has vowed to sue the European Parliament over the ban. The lawsuit will likely be supported by other EU countries who understand the stupidity of paying India for what amounts to a brokerage fee to deliver the same oil and gas.

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Don’t Miss The Public Statement from Kingdom of Denmark, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever held a joint press conference at the North Sea Summit in Hamburg.  During the pontificating EU session much anxiety was expressed about the Kingdom of Denmark’s ownership of Greenland and their position to use NATO leverage to remain sovereign to their interests.

During question-and-answer session about EU energy, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen then said this about the position of overall European energy dependence.  WATCH:

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Prime Minister Fredericksen couldn’t quite bring herself to say Trump was right; however, the reality of her statement proved that President Donald Trump was right.  Imagine that.

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