In 2015 CTH outlined candidate Trump’s economic positions and how they would impact the economy.  We anticipated that MAGAnomics would be reversing three decades of federal reserve monetary policy. After about a year of analysis, in 2016 CTH presented a theory: “A new Dimension in Modern Economics“.
The theory was based on a likelihood of what would happen if MAGA economic Policy was shifted to favor Main St over Wall St.  One aspect we presented was how Federal Reserve monetary policy would be oddly disconnected from its ability to influence inflation.
Today National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on CNBC to discuss the latest first quarter GDP growth rate of 3.2% and the status of the U.S. economy.   Kudlow notes the rate of inflation is disconnected from the GDP growth.

CTH 2016[…]  Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of an upcoming economic lag; which, rather remarkably I would add, is a very interesting dynamic.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Madam Akie Abe will be having dinner tonight with President Donald Trump and First Lady to celebrate Melania’s birthday.  The prime minister and the president are close personal friends and will likely play golf tomorrow.
The Trump-Abe relationship existed for many years prior to becoming U.S. President. Their respect for each-other is genuine.  Abe and Trump are competitors on trade and economics and their strategies within that competition are actually fun to watch. The long-standing friendship underpins a very genuine alliance of U.S-Japanese interests.
In advance of the dinner tonight PM Abe and President Trump meet in the Oval Office ahead of a bilateral delegation meeting to discuss trade and regional matters. They also take questions from the media [Video and Transcript Below]

[Transcript] 4:35 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s an honor to have my friend, Prime Minister Abe — Japan. We have many things to discuss, including trade, including some of the numbers that just came out this morning. We had a very big number at 3.2 GDP for the first quarter — usually the worst quarter. That also included the little bit of a dispute we had during the quarter. So 3.2 is far above expectation. I guess many people were thinking it would be in the ones, maybe between one and two. And 3.2 is great.
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Earlier today President Trump delivered exceptional remarks during the National Rifle Association 148th Convention, Indiana Convention Center. One very important aspect to point out in this speech is the remarks about the “coup” and “overthrow” were not off-the-cuff additions they were written into the teleprompter:

…”They tried for a coup; didn’t work out so well.” (Applause.) “And I didn’t need a gun for that one, did I? (Laughter.)”  “All was taking place at the highest levels in Washington, D.C. You’ve been watching, you’ve been seeing. You’ve been looking at things that you wouldn’t have believed possible in our country. Corruption at the highest level — a disgrace. Spying, surveillance, trying for an overthrow. And we caught them. We caught them. (Applause.) Who would have thought in our country?”

[Full Transcript] 12:18pm EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.) Well, I want to thank Chris and Wayne. I’m thrilled to be here in Indiana with the men and women of the NRA. You are great American patriots. (Applause.)
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President Donald Trump: “The GDP numbers were just announced and they were far higher than even the high expectation. There were many people who thought it would less than 2, and they were at 3.2.”
“Inflation numbers are very low. The gasoline prices are coming down. I called up OPEC. I said, “You got to bring them down. You got to bring them down.” And gasoline is coming down. We’re doing great.”
“GDP is an incredible number. But remember this: Not only that, we have a great growth — which is growth. We have great growth and also very, very low inflation. Our economy is doing great. Number one in the world. We’re number-one economy right now in the world and it’s not even close.  So thank you very much.”
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Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  President Donald Trump delivers impromptu remarks to the media as he departs the White House. [Video and Transcript]

[Transcript] – 9:21am EDT – THE PRESIDENT: So, I’m not allowed to comment on the new GDP numbers until about 10 or 15 minutes from now. So, I will not comment on them.
The country is always doing very well in every respect. I mean, we’re just doing well. We’re knocking it out of the park, as they say. And we’re very happy about that.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first quarter GDP numbers today and far exceeded all forecasts. The rate of growth in the first quarter was measured at 3.2% far above the anticipated 2.5% range; and the annual rate of inflation remains low at 1.7%.

The economy grew at a surprising rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, well above the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Also reported Friday was the latest PCE inflation data for the first quarter, showing core inflation at 1.7% year over year, down from 1.9% in the fourth quarter. (more)

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Yesterday Senators Johnson and Grassley opened the door for the DOJ and FBI to justify the post-election investigation of President Donald Trump, based on a premise of a possible FBI counterintelligence operation ran against the office of the Vice-President, Mike Pence. And lickety-split the outrage voices jumped right to work. Predictable.

Discussions, conversations and displays of evidence outlining the efforts of the intelligence community, to defend against the potential of a compromised President, are exactly what the previous administration officials want to see.  This is the conversation President Obama, Susan Rice, Ben Rhodes and Denis McDonough would be happy to discuss.
Think of the worst or most shocking possibility you can imagine for what might have taken place.  Wiretaps on the White House? Enlisted assistance from staffers? Bugs placed in the cufflinks of Donald Trump?  So what?  From their position all of these efforts were undertaken because they were dealing with the possibility of a U.S. President who might be under the control of a foreign government.  This is the conversation they would enjoy.
From their ‘by-the-book‘ perspective the officials who ran the counterintelligence operation against President Trump have no fear of discussions about what they did in their post-election defense of the constitution (that’s how they will sell it). No fear.
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President Trump gave an extensive interview to Fox News host Sean Hannity on Thursday evening.  The President made several stunning comments about the Mueller investigation, previous wiretaps, the upcoming inspector general report, the deep state, and his firm plans to declassify a significant amount of background documents.
For the first time President Trump used the terms “attempted coup” and “overthrow” to discuss the coordinated effort against his administration by the previous administration including James Clapper (ODNI), John Brennan (CIA), James Comey (FBI), and lower level officials within the intelligence apparatus.

Background Reports referenced by Hannity:

• Ukraine Report from John Solomon 
• Catherine Herridge Story – Grassley/Johnson Letter
• Sara Carter Column. Pence Chief-of-staff/Strzok Staffer

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CTH suspected this was sketchy when notorious Swamp Defender Chris Wallace was used as the point person to push it. FUBAR suspicions confirmed when looking at the construct.
Senators Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson send a letter to AG William Barr questioning post election text messages by Lisa Page and Peter Strzok that outline questions about the FBI counterintelligence operation against the Trump transition team. First the letter:
[scribd id=407638522 key=key-P6WGecNAMQ7aMu9ud4L6 mode=scroll]
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If you’ve followed the DC pattern, you can pick up the purpose of sending a letter that walks directly, and purposefully, into the President Obama and Susan Rice justification trap, CTH warned about a few months ago.
Asking questions about the motives of Lisa Page, Peter Strzok and the FBI counterintelligence unit in the post election period is ridiculous; all it does is open the door for justification. The FBI has admitted on-the-record the operation picked up by Special Counsel Robert Mueller was an extension of an ongoing FBI investigation.
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Well, here it is.  Awkward, weird, structurally odd, and trying to gain momentum using a well-worn club manual with tattered binding that will likely fall flat in the digital era, Joe Biden has officially entered the race.  This is going to be interesting.
This launch is the important part to watch.  The launch helps us quantify how many of the DNC Club’s board of directors, donors and Corinthian seat-holders are supportive of this effort.
So far, the institutional support looks rather tepid; likely because Biden’s brand will be akin to selling new licenses for Blockbuster Video store franchises.
Skepticism abounds.

DELAWARE – His long-awaited answer to the biggest political question in the country and Delaware came in a video posted to social media Thursday morning.

In announcing that he will vie for the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential nomination, Biden framed his candidacy around opposition to President Donald Trump.

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